Iron Man 2 The Iron Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[TheVileOne]

Spider-man 3 made over $330 million and that's more than Iron Man's domestic take a year later.

So basically we are looking at about $275 million after Memorial Day weekend. Following that $300 million will be a cinch. Once again, many people said no chance of $300 million even after the first 2 weekends 2 years ago. Haters and naysayers really need to just be quiet about it. This movie will be pushed over $300 million even if it means Paramount and Marvel keeping it in theatres longer to do so. And studios do make deals with exhibitors every now and again to keep a movie's theatrical run longer, but it means the theatres getting a bigger percentage of the BO in the later weeks.

People really just need to calm down and see that the movie is not doing as bad as you think it is. Also, it's at $255 million overseas right now, so it's poised to surpass Iron Man's overseas take very soon. $600 million worldwide is pretty much guaranteed at this point and puts Iron Man right behind Spider-man in terms of worldwide box office and brand recognition. That sounds pretty marketable to me. It will probably slow down at about $650 million worldwide.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Yeah but it didn't go up as much as SM3 did last weekend and I think that that could negate the 4% lead if it performs the same way this weekend.

We will figure whats what in a few hours but those are my thoughts right now.

Who is calling the movie a flop Vile? I have never called the movie a flop at the boxoffice but if it drops 50+% this weekend it will struggle to make as much as the first and it won't be flying over 300mil either. Also it's not going into Memorial Day in a vacum, Sex And The City and Prince of Persia will both open with a decent chunk of change and are both competition for it.

 

[TheVileOne]

Percentages schmerentages.

I'm looking at the RAW numbers. The numbers show, approx. $225 million before weekend #3. No matter what it does weekend #3, weekend #4 is HOLIDAY WEEKEND TIME and that gives it another boost. That translates into a higher than usual weekend #4 box office for this type of movie. Another $75 million for this type of movie won't be very hard.

Watch.

I SEE SPIDEY, since we are cool and all, do we care to make a little wager on this since you are so positive? It could be a sig wager.

 

[redfirebird2008]

VileOne, you are very naive regarding box office. The holiday isn't going to dramatically change the overall amount that the movie will make. All it will do is transfer money that would have been made on other days to the holiday. $300m won't be a "cinch" unless the movie gets its butt in gear. I am 100% confident that it will get to $300m simply because Paramount will not let it fall below that number. Right now it is 4% ahead of SM3's legs, which would give it a $296m total. Paramount will fudge the $4m if they have to. But it will not be a cinch at the pace it's going right now.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Percentages schmerentages.

I'm looking at the RAW numbers. The numbers show, approx. $225 million before weekend #3. No matter what it does weekend #3, weekend #4 is HOLIDAY WEEKEND TIME and that gives it another boost. That translates into a higher than usual weekend #4 box office for this type of movie. Another $75 million for this type of movie won't be very hard.

Watch.

I SEE SPIDEY, since we are cool and all, do we care to make a little wager on this since you are so positive? It could be a sig wager.

I lost my first wager and promised to never do it again but...what the hell, you are on my friend. You set the terms.

 

[Tony Stark]

I see sex and the city doing well, but PoP looks like this years Terminator Salvation, It's already being ripped.

There's alot of talk on BoM about the higher ticket prices driving people away this year. BO is down 8% year over year from 2009 according to BoM.

I think alot of what is happening has nothing to do with word of mouth but just the natural economic prinicpals when prices are increased above market clearing for what demand is, so we have a supply surplus of unsold tickets.

There was some report that Shrek was showing in some large markets only 25% sellouts. On an opening day for a movie series that's been very popular, that's horrible.

 

[rashad]

POP isn't being ripped as bad as you think.

 

[Bruce Malone]

Well i think everyone is a little tired with shrek by this point. Ppls interest probably peaked like 4 or 5 years ago.

I really believe word of mouth is hurting this film. I'm telling you i almost never heard anyone say negative things about the first iron man but im hearing quite a bit of stay away for this one.

 

[Tony Stark]

POP isn't being ripped as bad as you think.

There aren't alot of reviews right now, but the ones that are there it's getting trashed. I have a feeling based on the reviews it will be 30% or so on RT when the final tally is taken.

 

[rashad]

There aren't alot of reviews right now, but the ones that are there it's getting trashed. I have a feeling based on the reviews it will be 30% or so on RT when the final tally is taken.

There's 67 Positive 16 Negative according to the imdb count.

 

[TheVileOne]

I lost my first wager and promised to never do it again but...what the hell, you are on my friend. You set the terms.

OK, well you are predicting under $300 million domestic. I'm predicting over $300 million domestic.

The winner gets to alter the loser's signature to a format of their choosing . Don't worry, it won't be anything scandalous since this is just a friendly wager.

 

[Crook]

There's alot of talk on BoM about the higher ticket prices driving people away this year. BO is down 8% year over year from 2009 according to BoM.

I think alot of what is happening has nothing to do with word of mouth but just the natural economic prinicpals when prices are increased above market clearing for what demand is, so we have a supply surplus of unsold tickets.

 

[Tony Stark]

There's 67 Positive 16 Negative according to the imdb count.

I'm talking about rotten tomatoes only 54% so far.

 

[rashad]

I'm talking about rotten tomatoes only 54% so far.

I know. Alot of the reviews haven't been added yet. Still higher % than other video game adaptations.

 

[TheVileOne]

Just FYI, I'm seeing Prince of Persia on Tuesday at El Capitan.

And they better have that live show I'm hearing about. If I don't get a live show at the El Capitan, automatic F.

 

[rashad]

http://www.deadline.com/hollywood/
Friday - $7.8M

 

[Tony Stark]

Shrek bit it pretty bad. I bet without 3D that number would be under 50 mil. other than that 27 put's it at 48% drop.

As for McGruber you have to ask yourself why they didn't pick a February or March release, when it would have done much better. That movie will be out of the theaters completely within weeks, with those numbers, ala Aliens in the Attic.

 

[Anita18]

Meanwhile, it will be interesting to see what happens to Shrek. Sounds like under $90m for sure even with the 25% boost from 3D.

Good. A 3-D film needs to underperform so the fad train will stop barreling through. And I don't want it to be Toy Story 3!

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

OK, well you are predicting under $300 million domestic. I'm predicting over $300 million domestic.

The winner gets to alter the loser's signature to a format of their choosing . Don't worry, it won't be anything scandalous since this is just a friendly wager.

I'm not predicting under 300mil though.

Two weeks in a row Iron Man 2's friday number has been overpredicted by about a mil by Nikki Finke but for now I'm going to go by that number, eventhough I think that it will be more like 7.1 to 7.3mil when Boxoffice Mojo's numbers come out. With that 7.8mil number it should get 27mil. It's friday is lower than Iron Man's comparable 8.9mil though so it's officially running behind Iron Man now.

I'm so glad that awful Shrek 4 movie did s**t numbers compared to 2 and 3. It's not hitting 300mil and it had expense 3D tickets behind it. I haven't seen it but I think that MacGruber looks unfunny, maybe SNL will stop making these movies now? Who am I kidding? Ofcourse they won't!

 

[Tony Stark]

Two weeks in a row Iron Man 2's friday number has been overpredicted by about a mil

It wasn't Friday it was Sunday

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

No, it was Friday too. The first weekend Nikki's early Friday numbers said 52mil and the movie really did 51mil and the week after that she posted that it did 16mil and it really did 15mil.

It might do even more than her estimate for all I know but I'm thinking overestimation because of history.

Seriously Tony, I know exactly what I'm talking about, I've been following the boxoffice for years.

Anyway I think that Shrek 4's massive underperformance and Iron Man 2's (yes it's still a hit but it has been underperforming more than slightly) underperformance could give Prince of Persia a chance to break out. I mean I wouldn't bet on it because I'm still not predicting all that much for it but I still think that it has a chance of breaking out.

It's produced by Jerry Bruckhiemer

It's not a sequel so it could seem like something fresh to the audience

Jake G looks sexy as hell in the previews. That could attract women (it's attracted me)

It could attract kids because it looks like a fun adventure

I still expect Sex to be number one next weekend but if Prince opens decently enough and the audience pulls a National Treasure and likes it way more than the critics it could be a moderate hit. With it's huge budget 220mil would be a moderate hit.

 

[TheVileOne]

So what? Wow a million overestimated big deal.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

So what? Wow a million overestimated big deal.

I didn't say it was a big deal. The 5.5mil overestimation for it's weekend was a big deal but those friday numbers aren't a big deal.

If it did 7.8mil, then it's in for a 27mil weekend which is about a 48%( or maybe less if todays numbers are good) drop but if it did say 7mil it would most likely drop over 50%. It does matter if you crunch the numbers and like to like I do but it isn't a big deal.

Cut out the snark Vile. I'm not bashing the movie I'm analyzing it's boxoffice and so far it's only doing slightly better than than the much hated Spider-Man 3, those are just the facts.

And nobody should have expected it's legs to be as good as the first but it's doing worse than expected legs wise considering that much touted Cinema Score and Rotten Tomatoes user reviews. And yeah I was being a little snarky myself at the end of this post but my point still stands. The numbers don't lie.

 

[Tony Stark]

If anyone need to cut the snark Spidey it's you. You say you're not bashing the movie and yet you say "it's only doing slightly better than the much hated Spider-man 3."

If you want to talk BO, fine we can do that. If you're going to use the BO numbers to bash the film then don't go and complain that others are being snarky.

You hate the film, I get that. Alot of people like it. If you want to bash the movie there's a reveiw thread.

This movie is going to make more money than any other superhero film save TDK and the Spider-man movies. So quit pretending like the fact it was front loaded means it's not a well liked film. The critic reviews were not as good as the first, but they were positive. The user reviews are almost as good as the first, and the reviews on SHH are overwhealmingly positive. Some may not like it as much as the first, but the majority still liked it.

You can hate the film all you want, but don't delude yourself into thinking people don't like it.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

My view of the boxoffice has nothing to do with my dislike for the film. It is, as of right now, only doing slightly better than Spider-Man 3. Now I hate Spider-Man 3 with a red hot passion but I think that it's a complete double standard to say that Spider-Man 3's bad legs meant that people hated it but Iron Man 2's bad but slightly better legs mean that everyone loves it.

AND I NEVER CALLED THE MOVIE A FLOP OR A FAILURE OR THE WORSE PERFORMER EVER but like Shrek 3 hurt Shrek 4, this movie's lackluster word of mouth is going to hurt it's sequel and DVD sales. 300mil is nothing to sneeze at but Marvel should think about investing in a screenwriter next time.

And I'd also like to bring up Pirates 3 and The Matrix Reloaded. I liked Pirates 2 but I heard people say that it wasn't that good/wasn't as good as the first one after walking out of the theater and then the 3rd made over 100mil less than the 2nd one. The Matrix Reloaded was hated and the 3rd made less than the first movie. A drop isn't the death of your franchise if the sequel still had good word of mouth (see Spider-Man 3's record opening for details) but so-far I have seen no proof of this good word of mouth for IM2.

This is not sour grapes my friend, this is my observation of it's boxoffice numbers and what they mean.

I'm an Adult, I'm not afraid to admit that people liked something that I didn't.

The only person engaging in hyperbole concerning it's boxoffice is you. You refuse to look at anything else but your love for the film. Any slightly negative thing thats said is me trolling or being a hater. No, I just don't play favorites when looking at the numbers and that just gets some people's goat.

Tough cookies is my response. Get over it and move on.