Iron Man 2 The Iron Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[Spider-Fan]

I thought both KK and A-Team looked bad. So, I don't mind A-Team tanking.

This summer is awful

 

[FaT_tONle]

The Hell with the A-team... it's Fox. Party time for me with that pathetic opening. Unfortunate that Karate-Kid had to make the bank it did. Haven't checked the reviews to either, but they are probably both bad. Not gonna bother. Just one of those summers. I am probably gonna check out Airbender though because I need one action/fantasy film like that in the dog days of summer. Inception looks solid, but it is just not a summer tentpole in the way we are accustomed to seeing. Not that that is a bad thing... I just need one movie like that.

 

[Spider-Fan]

The Last Airbender looks worth seeing. Pretty much that, TS3, and Inception are all I'll def see, and everything else is maybe. Not in a rush for anything else.

 

[lespaul59]

My self I was about 90% sure I was gonna go see the A-Team but about a week and a half to two weeks ago I started to loose intrest in it and more than likely will just wait till it come out on Blu Ray. I'm gonna go see Jonah Hex next weekend and Toy Story 3 the weekend after that. Other than that the only movie I'm looking foward to is the Expendables(spelling). My theater viewings this year has been Avatar twicce, The Wolfman, IM2 and Prince of Persia. I might actually end up setting a personaly record for the number of movies I've seen in one year at theaters, my current record is 7(maybe 8). There where years in the early 90's where I probaly went to the theater to see the same movie more than once and ended up going to the theater about 15 times in a year give or take. But that was also in a time when my town had a theater and the tickets where only a $1 compaired to the best theater being a 30 mile drive and costing $8-10 a ticket. but my guess for IM2, I wouldn't be surprised if it hit $305mil next weekend. If they keep in in theaters untill the end of August I don't see why it can't pass IM but I think it will be closeto making the same. I still think there is a small chance it might make more than Alice in Wonderland.

 

[Marvin]

as usual iron man is followed by duds, but honestly this is a bit much.
It's being followed by a craptastic summer in this case.

Air bender is going to be the only true hit of the summer(with a chance of flopping due to m.nights curse)

and twilight will make bank for it's intended audience.

wow

 

[hatebox]

^ I think it's safe to say TS3 will be a 'hit' however one defines the term.

I'm not feeling the Airbender hype at all currently. It'll have to rely on great marketing and word of mouth. I don't know if it's a different story in the US but here in the UK no-one would have a clue what I was on about if I asked them about it. Even with that British Asian kid starring in it...

 

[Evil Twin]

As of today, the movie has grossed $299.3 million. On Monday it'll pass the $300 million mark. So, the road to $320 million continues.

IM2's dailys were only around $800K last week. It could pass $300 million domestic today, but I think it's more likely going to be Tuesday.

That just leaves IM1's domestic gross as a milestone. IM2 is sitting about $10.5 million ahead, although it's losing ground to IM1's pace. IM2 was about $14 million ahead last week. It's really going to be about the long tail from here on out. IM2 is probably going to be within $10 million of IM1 either way domestically.

FYI, IM1 re-release only netted $192 K. It's going to be a non-factor in whether IM2 passes it or not.

 

[JeetKuneDo]

This summer is so weak that there is a celebration going on for Karate Kid's 50 million OW. Fifty freaking million...people are just staying home this year. The economy sucks. If Toy Story 3 "underperforms" (whatever that really means) it's official.

 

[bubbadoom]

TS3 will "save" the summer...

 

[Marvin]

This summer is so weak that there is a celebration going on for Karate Kid's 50 million OW. Fifty freaking million...people are just staying home this year. The economy sucks. If Toy Story 3 "underperforms" (whatever that really means) it's official.

movie industry usually strives during rescession...these films are just all too underwhelming.

if tdk was to come out next week all this talk of bad ecomny would fade i'm sure.

 

[FaT_tONle]

We can't **** with the writers or the actors anymore, otherwise the summer will be crippled. If there is a director's strike, we'll probably still get movies, only they'd be horrible quality that may or may not make money. Can't even remember the last time I have seen ONE summer movie and we are practically in July. Inception might be it for me.

 

[Tony Stark]

The markets are too saturated. Karate Kid and A-team opening the same weekend? Last week you had Get Him to the Greek, Killer and Marmaduke all opening, and then Memorial day you had PoP and SATC2.

 

[FaT_tONle]

Movies for everyone should mean more revenue. It's not like the profits are being equally distributed among all those movies. I am positive the final numbers for this summer will be down compared to years past. If they are even, then you can make that argument. Of course the summer is far from over so there could still be some big hits.

 

[chiefchirpa]

The markets are too saturated.

Wait til you see 2011

 

[Abraham]

The markets are too saturated. Karate Kid and A-team opening the same weekend? Last week you had Get Him to the Greek, Killer and Marmaduke all opening, and then Memorial day you had PoP and SATC2.

This.

Based on the last couple months I think we can fully expect both Toy Story 3 and Inception to under-perform as-well. Just too much going on right now.

 

[Crook]

movie industry usually strives during rescession...these films are just all too underwhelming.

if tdk was to come out next week all this talk of bad ecomny would fade i'm sure.

Exactly.

Don't blame the s**tty numbers on the economy. People ain't buying because the products are s**tty. Hollywood needs to step their game up instead of pointing fingers. Films that are "good enough" to attract audiences will get those audiences, and in turn their money. You don't even have to be some studio blockbuster to do it. Look at District 9 and Paranormal Activity which were both runaway hits. Fanboys of every property that's underperformed are all so quick to pull "THE ECONOMY! " card to save face.

 

[lespaul59]

I'll agree with the market being too saturated, I mean you have at least 4-5 movie fighting for the same money.

 

[Anita18]

The markets are too saturated. Karate Kid and A-team opening the same weekend? Last week you had Get Him to the Greek, Killer and Marmaduke all opening, and then Memorial day you had PoP and SATC2.

The market is not saturated at all. Otherwise you would have had both of the openers do better, and share the loot equally. IIRC Wall-E and Wanted both opened very well directly against each other in 2008, both getting $50m+ for the weekend. Last December, we had two openers (Sherlock Holmes and the Alvin "Squeakquel") do $45m+ directly against each other AND Avatar.

What you're suggesting re: market saturation is that there are so many movies out, nobody could decide what they wanted to see and thus stayed home in frustration.

People just didn't want to see these recent movies. Simple as that.

 

[TNC9852002]

Hey Crook, I love your avatar

 

[Tony Stark]

The market is not saturated at all. Otherwise you would have had both of the openers do better, and share the loot equally. IIRC Wall-E and Wanted both opened very well directly against each other in 2008, both getting $50m+ for the weekend. Last December, we had two openers (Sherlock Holmes and the Alvin "Squeakquel") do $45m+ directly against each other AND Avatar.

What you're suggesting re: market saturation is that there are so many movies out, nobody could decide what they wanted to see and thus stayed home in frustration.

People just didn't want to see these recent movies. Simple as that.

No that's not what market saturation is. Market saturation is you look at the top 10 films for this weekend it was 140 million approx, the top 10 films for this weekend last year only did 128.7.

More people went to see the movies this weekend than this weekend last year, but you had one movie taking the lions share of the profits. You look last year and Up and The Hangover took the top two slots, and no new release made the top slot

This weekend you had two new releases that did pretty good business that had the top two slots so they directly had to compete against each other. More people went to see Karate Kid.

I think it's pretty obvious that A-team opening against Karate Kid hurt A-team.

 

[hatebox]

^ This weekend was better than last year's precisely because a film performed above expectations though. Yes, A-Team underperformed but I saw no analysts that predicted over $40m for it. Besides, the demographis are pretty different anyway. A-Team may have been Pg-13 but it was still going for mid-teens and above.

 

[JeetKuneDo]

movie industry usually strives during rescession...these films are just all too underwhelming.

if tdk was to come out next week all this talk of bad ecomny would fade i'm sure.

The key word is "usually". Movies are no longer "the cheap option". The economy is scaring a lot of people this year. We were supposed to be out of the recession by now. Ticket prices were raised substantially this spring and very few movies have done well since. IM2 is one of the exceptions. I myself only went to see IM2 twice...usually I go at least three times for a movie I like that much.

I heard stories that audiences were standing up and applauding for TKK...but it only made 56 million. TS3 better do something special next week...it's getting fantastic reviews. Maybe the parents will be willing to shell out for a "kiddie film" (not a good description for the greatness of Pixar).

Piracy is also worse this year. A friend of mine was telling me how much he like IM2 the Friday it opened and told me I would like it a lot.
....He already had it on DVD.

 

[Crook]

Piracy is also worse this year.

You have something to back this up? What could have possibly changed in the piracy field, between now and last year? C'mon son.

I cannot wait for the next big blockbuster to come rolling around. It'll once again hush up those that think people aren't going to movies anymore.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

The econ isn't hurting the boxoffice, unappealing looking movies are. Karate Kid had great advertising and buzz and made more than it's budget it's opening weekend. It did great. That shows that if people want to see a movie they will go see it.

Still don't see IM2 reaching 320mil. It's dropping too much and it's dropping too many theaters. I could be wrong but I just don't see it.

 

[hatebox]

I noticed in a recent boxofficemojo article talking about international figures they said that it was looking 'less and less likely' that IM2 would surpass it's predecessor's domestic amount. I guess even if it does it'll probably take so long most of us won't be posting here anymore.