Iron Man 2 The Iron Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[drax]

Show me one TDK trailer or TV spot where Ledger's name is billed. Show me one poster where his name is first billed. Good luck.

Of course, WB is not so insensitive to exploit his death directly, but it's the same thing for Michael Jackson or the others death stars, but they know how to use that, the media and the studio work together to promote a movie, and the commercial aspect of a recently dead actor is subtil and can't be done too directly.

WB was smartly silent on NOT overtly marketing Ledger's name after his death. The entertainment news media did it for them 1000x over, so they didn't have to do anything.

Why the media have done that ? It's WB (or other studios) who ask them to promote the death of an actor in this sense, there are a strong like between the big studios and the media, they need each others to promote their movie and they give them their exclusivity.

Why every media have boycotted Michael Jackson music when he was alive ? Now since his death, every media show his music, because Sony ask them to promote him in this way.

I know that most companies would take ANY opportunity to hawk their wares, but acting like WB was gleeful that Ledger died and officially marketed the fact it was "LEDGER'S LAST MOVIE! OMG! DID WE MENTION IT WAS LEDGER'S LAST MOVIE?" is beyond the pale. They didn't do anything of the sort. It certainly happened, but it was beyond WB's control. They let the news media borrow footage from the trailers but that was it.

It was probably not beyond WB control, if you read for example Peter Biskind book about just Independant cinema (Miramax etc...), you could see that, at their level, they have a huge control about the publicity around their movie, so a really powerful studio like WB, with another powerful entity behind them, AOL Time Warner (one of the biggest company in the world), who own lot of media, let imagine you the control that they have when they promote their movies (sorry for my english).

A tragic death of an young actor is very rare, and there are lot of money to do about that, every Studio know that and know how to use that.

 

[S.A.A.D.]

Nice. Should finish around 700-800M WW.

No offense,but I still think expecting those box office numbers is a little too optimistic. But we'll see of course.

 

[SLYspyder]

The Ledger death arguments are ridiculous. Factors that were far bigger in determining the film's success include:

1) Batman vs the Joker (this is patently obvious)
2) Excellent marketing combined with a perfect release date
3) Great reviews and word of mouth resulting in healthy drop offs - people who would never see a superhero film were seeing TDK
4) Goodwill from Batman Begins
5) People heard Ledger was really, really good. That's far more reason to see a film than him just dying. That's what makes a movie a billion dollars. Not imagined 'macabre curiosity'.

Yup, the non stop marketing for months due to Ledger's death was the definitely the least contributing factor.

 

[SLYspyder]

$133 is damn impressive. That's up $35M from Iron Man!

Remember, this is Iron Man we're talking about, Marvel could've only dreamed of that character being this much of a success.

Not sure why anyone thought it would break opening weekend record. The next known contenders for that record in order are Spider-Man 4, Batman 3, and The Avengers.

 

[akfj]

Of course, WB is not so insensitive to exploit his death directly, but it's the same thing for Michael Jackson or the others death stars, but they know how to use that, the media and the studio work together to promote a movie, and the commercial aspect of a recently dead actor is subtil and can't be done too directly.

Why the media have done that ? It's WB (or other studios) who ask them to promote the death of an actor in this sense, there are a strong like between the big studios and the media, they need each others to promote their movie and they give them their exclusivity.

You have no proof the media and WB were in cahoots. WB didn't need to force the media to talk about an Oscar-nominated actor who passed away before his prime.

$133 is damn impressive. That's up $35M from Iron Man!

Remember, this is Iron Man we're talking about, Marvel could've only dreamed of that character being this much of a success.

Not sure why anyone thought it would break opening weekend record. The next known contenders for that record in order are Spider-Man 4, Batman 3, and The Avengers.

There is no Spider-Man 4. We'll have to see how much hype the reboot generates.

 

[FaT_tONle]

I think the Ledger debate will settle once we see the hype for BB3, because obviously Joker won't carry the film. Even with Catwoman, the villain hype won't be close to what it was with TDK, unless they get Hoffman for Penguin, DiCpario for Black Mask, Depp for Riddler, etc. If it still breaks records and grosses 500 million then we will all agree Ledger wasn't the main reason. If not, then, its either a worse movie or Ledger was a draw.

 

[spider-neil]

I think the Ledger debate will settle once we see the hype for BB3, because obviously Joker won't carry the film. Even with Catwoman, the villain hype won't be close to what it was with TDK, unless they get Hoffman for Penguin, DiCpario for Black Mask, Depp for Riddler, etc. If it still breaks records and grosses 500 million then we will all agree Ledger wasn't the main reason. If not, then, its either a worse movie or Ledger was a draw.

that's not true. TDK2 will have the good will from BB/TDK and also inception (if it does well) so will do massive numbers. the people who wouldn't normally have seen a superhero movie and went because of morbid curiousity from HL death with now want to see how the trilogy plays out.

the villian for TDK2 could be killer moth and people will STILL see TDK2 now

 

[JeetKuneDo]

For Iron Man box office, I think his success is more important that the others superheroes movies, simply because, unlike the others popular franchise superheroes, nobody knew him before his movie.

Batman, the X-men, Spider-man, Superman, Hulk, each of this characters was really well-known in the pop culture (with TV show, cartoon etc...), but Iron Man, nobody know him, in France before this movie, nobody, except some comicbook fans, knew who he was or who was Tony Stark, in other hand, everybody know Batman and Spider-man.

So I think that Iron Man was the most successful because he was near nobody in term of popularity, but now he is maybe, after Spider-man, the most well-known Marvel character.

Good point. Iron Man came in with an even lower profile than the X Men and blew up at the box office. It had none of the advantages that Spider-Man, Batman, and Superman movies have. We expect those to have huge numbers because they are a part of pop culture. Iron Man? Not in the same galaxy....but it still raked it in.

Thing is that TDK was NOT Ledger's last role. His final completed role, yes, but Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus was the last movie where he appears, and they even billed his name in the trailers which TDK did not do. And how much did that movie make?

Bernie Mac's last movie made bupkiss at the box office too.

Probably not very accurate to compare a super hero movie that was going to make over 200 million no matter what to movies that would be lucky to make 30 million.

 

[Scarlet Spider]

Not sure why anyone thought it would break opening weekend record. The next known contenders for that record in order are Spider-Man 4, Batman 3, and The Avengers.

I'm optimistic about Spidey but it's opening on a Tuesday (4th of July release), so it won't be a contender for the opening weekend record.

Great start for Iron Man 2, though. Marvel should be extremely happy with these numbers. Not to mention the flick scored high on exit polling this weekend, so it should have good word of mouth, to carry it through.

 

[JeetKuneDo]

I think the Ledger debate will settle once we see the hype for BB3, because obviously Joker won't carry the film. Even with Catwoman, the villain hype won't be close to what it was with TDK, unless they get Hoffman for Penguin, DiCpario for Black Mask, Depp for Riddler, etc. If it still breaks records and grosses 500 million then we will all agree Ledger wasn't the main reason. If not, then, its either a worse movie or Ledger was a draw.

The next Batman movie should tell us a lot. Looking at the other non-Joker Batman movies doesn't make me believe this will get close to TDK's gross. Similar to how the first Batman movie (featuring the Joker) went crazy at the box office and the 2nd one made almost 100 million less 3 years later. No Joker...no incredible box office. Batman himself is kinda...boring.

 

[hatebox]

Of course Batman 3 won't make TDK's domestic gross, but again: that's because it won't have the Joker in it, not because someone proably won't die beforehand.

There are a few genuine reasons to criticize TDK, but putting its billion dollar success down to a death is lazy and inane. If Ledger wasn't great as the Joker in the first place no-one would give a damn.

 

[blueblazer2]

Of course Batman 3 won't make TDK's domestic gross, but again: that's because it won't have the Joker in it, not because someone proably won't die beforehand.

There are a few genuine reasons to criticize TDK, but putting its billion dollar success down to a death is lazy and inane. If Ledger wasn't great as the Joker in the first place no-one would give a damn.

Nolan has never ruled out the possibility of the return of the Joker . We do not know who will be the main villian.

 

[hatebox]

If the Joker returns in any significant capacity in the next film I'll eat my house.

 

[Tony Stark]

133 is a good number, and might even come in a little higher after the actuals come in.

As an Iron Man fan, I was just pleased they were going to try and make the movies, I never expected him to become Marvel's no. 2 franchise, taking over X-men.

It's not suprising that he comes behind Spider-man, as he's more a "kid friendly" character than Iron Man.

I am very suprised Paramount and Marvel Studios didn't try to promote the movie more. The first trailer only came out with Sherlock Holmes which was released Christmas day.

I'm wondering if there is some bad blood between Paramount and Marvel on the Disney aquisition. Was Paramount/Viacom possibly trying to make a bid?

I immagine Disney will release Avengers under their own studio name, so this could be bad for Paramount in the long run.

Anyway, it will be interesting to see what happens next week. I don't know what to make of Robin Hood. Is it the next Gladiator or the next Kingdom of Heaven?

If IM2 can remain no 1 next week and have under 50% drop, I think it can make it to 400 million or possibly more.

 

[Anita18]

It was probably not beyond WB control, if you read for example Peter Biskind book about just Independant cinema (Miramax etc...), you could see that, at their level, they have a huge control about the publicity around their movie, so a really powerful studio like WB, with another powerful entity behind them, AOL Time Warner (one of the biggest company in the world), who own lot of media, let imagine you the control that they have when they promote their movies (sorry for my english).

A tragic death of an young actor is very rare, and there are lot of money to do about that, every Studio know that and know how to use that.

Okay I'll give you that, but from reading some posts here (and elsewhere) it comes across as though studios are gleeful when a famous actor dies because it'll be so much easier to market the movie. I think marketing depts will do what they can, especially when their first job is to market the movie, but nobody is happy when anyone in a production dies.

I talked with the people who did TDK's viral marketing and everyone was every bit as upset about Ledger as we were. I take offense on their behalf if anyone claims otherwise.

Not sure why anyone thought it would break opening weekend record. The next known contenders for that record in order are Spider-Man 4, Batman 3, and The Avengers.

Judging from what I've been reading on BOM and WoKJ, many people expected more because of TF2. That movie did gangbusters and almost matched TDK in 5-day grosses, so everyone assumed that it was "easy" for any big event action movie to do gangbusters as well.

Plus tracking showed that it would at least get close. But tracking can definitely be off more often than not...

I think the Ledger debate will settle once we see the hype for BB3, because obviously Joker won't carry the film. Even with Catwoman, the villain hype won't be close to what it was with TDK, unless they get Hoffman for Penguin, DiCpario for Black Mask, Depp for Riddler, etc. If it still breaks records and grosses 500 million then we will all agree Ledger wasn't the main reason. If not, then, its either a worse movie or Ledger was a draw.

Well like many people have already mentioned, it'll be hard to parse out either way. There's not only Ledger's death, but Oscar buzz around Ledger's role and the fact he was playing the friggin' Joker.

I don't think it'll ever be settled. We'll believe what we want to believe.

Probably not very accurate to compare a super hero movie that was going to make over 200 million no matter what to movies that would be lucky to make 30 million.

Right, but there some of the opinions here (and elsewhere) were that all you need for a movie to be a box-office phenomenon is to have one of your high-profile actors die, which is obviously not the case.

 

[hatebox]

Sort of on topic - Empire just gave Robin Hood 4 stars. There's not nearly enough hype to stop IM2 getting a second number 1 week (surely?), but if the film is really well reviewed it might prove to be more competetive than some, including myself, thought.

 

[Sharkboy]

i came to talk about iron man box office and all i see is people attributing TDK's success to heath's death, rather the fact it was a superior film, had much better word of mouth and a much better marketing plan to go for it. Sigh

 

[drax]

You have no proof the media and WB were in cahoots. WB didn't need to force the media to talk about an Oscar-nominated actor who passed away before his prime.

It's very well known that studio work with the big media for to promote their movie and the situation, see the example of Michael Jackson for the music world with Sony and how he promote him since his death, before that, they don't have promoted the singer correctly since the early 90's, see the book of Peter Biskind about the so-called indie movie word and their relation with the media, see the power of WB with AOL Time Warner and all the media who are under this group.

There are nothing weird about these relation between the big companies and the media, it's perfectly normal, it's just the commercial aspect of the situation, I don't have said that they are happy when someone passed away, I just say that they use that in a commercial perspective and that make lot of money, lot more that during a normal situation.

It's very well known that a star or an actor with some popularity can give lot of money when he die, lot more in general that when he is alive (Bruce and Brandon Lee, Marylin Monroe, James Dean etc...).

 

[dark_b]

I think the Ledger debate will settle once we see the hype for BB3, because obviously Joker won't carry the film. Even with Catwoman, the villain hype won't be close to what it was with TDK, unless they get Hoffman for Penguin, DiCpario for Black Mask, Depp for Riddler, etc. If it still breaks records and grosses 500 million then we will all agree Ledger wasn't the main reason. If not, then, its either a worse movie or Ledger was a draw.

its not that simple IMO

i think Ledger was not the main reason. but i do think that the character Joker was a big reason for the BO.

so i dont expect big hype and buzz for a character like catwoman ,black mask or Riddler. Joker is the biggest character when it comes to the masses.

 

[akfj]

It's very well known that studio work with the big media for to promote their movie and the situation, see the example of Michael Jackson for the music world with Sony and how he promote him since his death, see the book of Peter Biskind about the so-called indie movie word and their relation with the media, see the power of WB with AOL Time Warner and all the media who are under this group.

There are nothing weird about these relation between the big companies and the media, it's perfectly normal, it's just the commercial aspect of the situation, I don't have said that they are happy when someone passed away, I just say that they use that in a commercial perspective and that make lot of money, lot more that during a normal situation.

It's very well known that a star or an actor with some popularity can give lot of money when he die, lot more in general that when he is alive (Bruce and Brandon Lee, Marylin Monroe, James Dean etc...).

You're still not showing me any proof of what WB did in conjunction with the media's treatment of Ledger's death. It's nothing but hearsay.

 

[FaT_tONle]

The next Batman movie should tell us a lot. Looking at the other non-Joker Batman movies doesn't make me believe this will get close to TDK's gross. Similar to how the first Batman movie (featuring the Joker) went crazy at the box office and the 2nd one made almost 100 million less 3 years later. No Joker...no incredible box office. Batman himself is kinda...boring.

I agree. No one is going to see Batman if they market Black Mask as the only villain. They need Catwoman or Riddler if not both, and if not, a REALLY big time name for a regular mob boss. Batman with his new mansion and Batmobile will still do numbers, but he is also dependent on supporting characters and love interests like anyone else. I am thinking if the movie is mediocre, 350 at the box office. If its really good it may eclipse 450 but definitely not 500.

 

[Rumpy Bulge Dubz]

Look, TDK still would have been a success regardless if Heath passed or not. It still would have done better than Batman Begins, and heath still would have been a contributing factor to it, among other things. But there is not a snowball's chance in hell it would be as successful as it currently is, if Heath hadn't passed. Dead Celebrity's make cashola, no.....beating.....around.....THAT.....bush, not at all

 

[hatebox]

Look, TDK still would have been a success regardless if Heath passed or not. It still would have done better than Batman Begins, and heath still would have been a contributing factor to it, among other things. But there is not a snowball's chance in hell it would be as successful as it currently is, if Heath hadn't passed. Dead Celebrity's make cashola, no.....beating.....around.....THAT.....bush, not at all

This topic is getting very boring, but time and again we've seen celebrities who have died that haven't translated into 'cashola'. Bernie Mack was much loved in America, but his posthumous movie made bugger all at the box office. Likewise Ledger's very own last movie. People talk like this theory is a given: it isn't.

But as Anita said, we'll all believe what we want to believe. Me included I suppose.

 

[FaT_tONle]

Mac is more a comedian... not a movie star. If Comedy Central had some Bernie Mac specials, or never before seen stand ups, I am sure that would have gotten a ton of viewership on TV or DVD or whatever they could come up with.

 

[The Guardian]

Great numbers, I'm glad it's doing so well, it's a great movie, I'm actually leaving to see it for the 3rd time in about an hour, good times!!!