Iron Man 2 The Iron Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[hatebox]

I assume he meant domestic.

 

[rashad]

He probably meant 400M Domestic. If that's the case then yeah I can see it coming up well short.

 

[TheVileOne]

A lot of people said there was no way it would surpass $300 million in 2008 for Iron Man. It ended up edging out Indy 4's domestic take.

 

[drax]

You can compare the box office of both movies all you want - just don't turn this thread into an off-topic discussion about Heath Ledger's death, which I just had to delete an entire page of comments about.

We have a Batman forum. Go there if you want to continue that discussion.

You want to talk about TDK's box office in comparison to IM2's box office, knock yourself out.

I would like to know how you can compare both box-office without try to explain the reason of their respective success ?
Lot of us think that the success of TDK was, for a big part, caused by the death of Heath Ledger, we can't make a real comparaison without to talk about what there are around these movies, during the production and the promotion (sorry for my english).

Thank for advance for the answer.

 

[hatebox]

I would like to know how you can compare both box-office without try to explain the reason of their respective success ?
Lot of us think that the success of TDK was, for a big part, caused by the death of Heath Ledger, we can't make a real comparaison without to talk about what there are around these movies, during the production and the promotion (sorry for my english).

Thank for advance for the answer.

I think Ledger's death is miniscule as a reason compared to him being great as the Joker and the Joker actually being in the film in the first place, but the point is the disucssion goes nowhere. We'll believe whatever we want to believe and just go round in circles.

 

[drax]

I think Ledger's death is miniscule as a reason compared to him being great as the Joker and the Joker actually being in the film in the first place, but the point is the disucssion goes nowhere. We'll believe whatever we want to believe and just go round in circles.

Okay, thank you for the answer, hatebox.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Drax, let it go. I am a poster tired of the Ledger debate, and I am rather glad the moderation is making that topic off limits here. It comes up in EVERY forum, and I am tired of it.

You have the bat forum. Go there for that subject. Leave people like me who want to discuss Iron Man 2's BO without the every post whining about Ledger's death in peace. Seriously, I'm tired of it.

 

[drax]

Okay Spider-Fan, I'm sorry for this question.

For Iron Man 2 box-office, I would like to know the reason that this movie have been released later in USA ?

Do you think, for box-office point of view, it was a good marketing move from Marvel ?

I can tell you that sadly lot of times, there are a big difference between the USA and the Europe for to have the same movies in cinema (sometimes 1 month or two), I think in some way it was a good move from Marvel for to fight against the piracy for this movie.

 

[FaT_tONle]

He probably meant 400M Domestic. If that's the case then yeah I can see it coming up well short.

Yeah man... it's a flop. Got to call it like it is. TF2 will end up out grossing it...

 

[Evil Twin]

IM2 was released earlier in Europe, Marvel has staked out the first weekend in May in the US for awhile now, due to several films moving up to avoid the World Cup next month. Obviously IM2 wasn't going to directly conflict with it, but other films moved up and potentially would have stepped on IM2's theater count and legs.

I doubt the early release in Europe had much effect other than some reviews came in sort of mixed.

 

[redfirebird2008]

Yeah man... it's a flop. Got to call it like it is. TF2 will end up out grossing it...

It's not a flop by any means. It's definitely on its way to being a nice success for Paramount/Marvel. But it's hard not to laugh at my own prediction. I thought it would sell a similar number of tickets to SM3/TDK over opening weekend, which would be around $170-175m in 2010 dollars. And I figured after that huge opening it would cruise to around $450m domestic. I was way off. Way, way off.

Hopefully it can at least reach $350m. That Sunday drop is not a good sign though. Mother's Day isn't a good excuse either because Star Trek had to deal with the same thing last year and had a 10% lower drop. Spidey 3 even managed a Sunday drop in the low-20's before its lousy word-of-mouth began kicking in. 32% is pretty steep for IM2.

 

[Raiden]

LOL. You couldn't be anymore wrong.

Through 3 days it made almost $130 domestically and it already at $322 million WW . Do you really think the movie is going to die down that much?

It will probably make another $8-10 million each weekday and make around 50-80 million during the weekend.

I'm pulling for Robin Hood as I enjoy Russell Crowe and Mark Strong but it might be a flop unfortunately domestically.

Sorry, I meant to say domestic, not WW. I've edited my post to mark the correction.

 

[Tony Stark]

Okay Spider-Fan, I'm sorry for this question.

For Iron Man 2 box-office, I would like to know the reason that this movie have been released later in USA ?

Do you think, for box-office point of view, it was a good marketing move from Marvel ?

I can tell you that sadly lot of times, there are a big difference between the USA and the Europe for to have the same movies in cinema (sometimes 1 month or two), I think in some way it was a good move from Marvel for to fight against the piracy for this movie.

What happened was originally the film was supposed to release WW on Apr 30th. Then the Chronicles of Narnia was pushed back to November, so Paramount decided to push up the North American release to Narnia's slot.

 

[Tony Stark]

It's not a flop by any means. It's definitely on its way to being a nice success for Paramount/Marvel. But it's hard not to laugh at my own prediction. I thought it would sell a similar number of tickets to SM3/TDK over opening weekend, which would be around $170-175m in 2010 dollars. And I figured after that huge opening it would cruise to around $450m domestic. I was way off. Way, way off.

Hopefully it can at least reach $350m. That Sunday drop is not a good sign though. Mother's Day isn't a good excuse either because Star Trek had to deal with the same thing last year and had a 10% lower drop. Spidey 3 even managed a Sunday drop in the low-20's before its lousy word-of-mouth began kicking in. 32% is pretty steep for IM2.

I don't buy the Sunday Drop. IM1 had a 30% drop on Sunday. Spider-man 1 had a 27% Sunday drop on it's opening wekend. X2 had a 30% drop on it's first Sunday.

I'll admit I'm no BO expert, but I'm pretty good at math, and statistically there's no evidence that the Sunday drop has any effect on the longevity of the movie. Spider-man 3 only had a 22% Sunday drop and it tanked the next week.

As far as people's preditions, well there was a 1000 point drop in the Stock market on Wednesday, who knows how that effected peoples decisions to go to the movie.

 

[hatebox]

There are a million variables that determine peoples' decision to go to the movies, but time and again we've seen that recession has no effect on cinema attendence. In fact during the Great Depression it went up, people craved escapism.

 

[DW4]

Sorry, I meant to say domestic, not WW. I've edited my post to mark the correction.

Ah, simple mistake no biggie.

I might agree with you then. It is definitely too early to tell but this is the Summer Season so I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't.

I don't see Robin Hood beating it, I don't see Shrek beating it(people are getting sick of it) but I feel like PoP might be a surprise hit.

It really all depends how much it makes this weekend. As of right now it already made a lot of money. Those who are calling it a flop are fools that need to understand the box office.

 

[Tony Stark]

Let me state it another way, do I think that 20 million dollars worth of tickets just walked away this weekend? No I don't. In fact I looked around and I've seen some sites predicting 130 for this movie, including movie web:

http://www.movieweb.com/news/NEK4yRMR79TGOO

The whole "tracking at 150 million" seems to come from alot of fanboys on these BO forums.

It's sort of like people who think John Kerry won the 2004 election based on exit polling. It's the actual votes that count, not the exit polling.

I think the whole 150 million, going to challenge the Dark Knight, was pure media hype, and unfortunately I bought some of that myself.

 

[redfirebird2008]

It's sort of like people who think John Kerry won the 2004 election based on exit polling. It's the actual votes that count, not the exit polling.

I think the whole 150 million, going to challenge the Dark Knight, was pure media hype, and unfortunately I bought some of that myself.

It's not the fault of fanboys that the tracking services overestimated it by $20-30m. That's the fault of the tracking service. Now it is definitely our fault for not being more skeptical about those tracking numbers. My prediction for the movie wasn't just based on tracking, it was based on the situations with Pirates and Transformers. Iron Man had similar success to them. I will admit that the DVD sales were probably a good indicator that it would not increase as much as those sequels. It had good DVD sales, but Pirates and Transformers had excellent DVD sales. I knew it, but I kind of ignored it and let the fanboy take over I guess.

 

[Tony Stark]

No, I understand, and my own prediction was pretty high based on that as well. In fact when I heard that early sales on movietickets.com were outgunning the original by 5 to 1, I was wondering if this could get close to 200. Seems pretty silly now, but my inner fanboy broke in as well.

What I am seeing now though is that several tracking reports, and the one I listed at movie web, had the film at 130 million, which is almost dead on. So I think the tracking services that were polling 150 or higher were smoking crack, as that's way outside the margin of error.

So my basic point was, you either have to believe that their tracking methods were flawed, or that 20 million dollars worth of business just stayed home this weekend. considering how much of a jump this film was over the same weekend last year, I can only conclude that it was the former.

 

[redfirebird2008]

No, I understand, and my own prediction was pretty high based on that as well. In fact when I heard that early sales on movietickets.com were outgunning the original by 5 to 1, I was wondering if this could get close to 200. Seems pretty silly now, but my inner fanboy broke in as well.

What I am seeing now though is that several tracking reports, and the one I listed at movie web, had the film at 130 million, which is almost dead on. So I think the tracking services that were polling 150 or higher were smoking crack, as that's way outside the margin of error.

So my basic point was, you either have to believe that their tracking methods were flawed, or that 20 million dollars worth of business just stayed home this weekend. considering how much of a jump this film was over the same weekend last year, I can only conclude that it was the former.

Definitely. There have been plenty of examples where they screwed up. One of the tracking services had Terminator Salvation at $100m for its 5-day opening. It made $65m.

 

[danoyse]

I would like to know how you can compare both box-office without try to explain the reason of their respective success ?
Lot of us think that the success of TDK was, for a big part, caused by the death of Heath Ledger, we can't make a real comparaison without to talk about what there are around these movies, during the production and the promotion (sorry for my english).

Thank for advance for the answer.

The in-depth discussion about Heath Ledger's death affecting TDK's box office belongs in the Batman forum. What we had was nearly an entire page of posts discussing that subject without a single mention of Iron Man, which is what this thread is supposed to be about. Instead, the thread was dragged entirely off-topic by the billionth Heath Ledger box office discussion.

You can compare TDK vs. Iron Man all you want - just don't make this a TDK thread.

 

[FaT_tONle]

Yeah I think we all got a little wrapped up in that 400 mark. You see films like DMC and TF2 edging that mark and more and it gets under the skin. Shrek 2 was at least decent, but we saw the drop off when you put out a mediocre film. Same with Spidey. I still can't decide on what the consensus is for the GA, but if it's rated slightly less than the first, it's pretty much going to do the same business as the first. I still thought a good 380 was a lock, with 400 being the cherry on the top. Now those numbers are in jeopardy. It's nothing more than greed, but we are fanboys so...

 

[Anita18]

I think the whole 150 million, going to challenge the Dark Knight, was pure media hype, and unfortunately I bought some of that myself.

It was definitely media hype, and it was everywhere. Media hype does that.

 

[solidsnake86]

I rarely get involved with box office discussions because frankly, I just don't care and its not my money that I'm making. The only thing thats important is that if you liked the film that it makes a profit in order to gaurantee another sequel. Hoping that a movie breaks records is just extra. You can't really predict these things at all, when you look at iron man 1 all in all that was a fluke and it did more then anyone could have expected with a b-rate character. On top of all that 128 million opening weekend isn't easy to achieve, I find it funny that people just brush that aside as if its nothing.

 

[hatebox]

It's certainly not 'nothing', but we live in a day and age where records are being broken so frequently they're almost irrelevent, much less openings that don't break records.