Iron Man 2 The Iron Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[dark_b]

well i hope IM3 will happen. of course RDJ will be to old. but f... it.

 

[Tony Stark]

Monday numbers are at 9.4 million, which is only a 69% drop from Sunday, and lower than the first films Monday drop off.

 

[redfirebird2008]

Monday numbers are at 9.4 million, which is only a 69% drop from Sunday, and lower than the first films Monday drop off.

Star Trek is probably a better comparison because it also came out on Mother's Day weekend, unlike Iron Man. I think the Mother's Day "holiday" hurt IM2's gross on Sunday. This leads to a stronger than expected hold on Monday, which then leads to a weaker than expected hold on Tuesday. And finally by Wednesday some of the volatility will be gone. Take a look at Star Trek's drops:

Monday - 64%...people were predicting $300+ million for it based on this drop because it was a really great hold.

Tuesday - 13% drop. The first Iron Man dropped just 6% on its first Tuesday.

Wednesday - 11% drop. This is equal to the first Iron Man's drop, which shows signs of leveling out from the Mother's Day effect.


Based on this, I'm expecting around a 12-15% drop for IM2 on Tuesday, followed by a better hold on Wednesday.

 

[FaT_tONle]

Crunched some numbers real quick, if the legs are as good as IM overall, it will barely eclipse 400. Really depends on the competition. Robinhood/Shrek/Persia vs SR/Narnia/Indy.

 

[Rumpy Bulge Dubz]

if that SR is for Superman Returns, I'm almost positive it wasn't in the same run as Narnia, Indy and Iron Man, if that's what you're trying to say

 

[hatebox]

Jeez, I didn't even realise there was another Narnia film coming out. Says a lot for its chances.

 

[FaT_tONle]

My bad... I meant Persia. Not Narnia, which was 08. SR is Speed Racer, which bombed. Robinhood should do a lot better.

 

[hatebox]

Apparenlty the next Narnia film is this winter. They learnt their lesson from '08 it seems.

Robin Hood won't be a threat, but Persia could prove to be big, dumb summer fun for a lot of viewers. That will be real competition I think, even if reviews are bad.

 

[Tony Stark]

Jeez, I didn't even realise there was another Narnia film coming out. Says a lot for its chances.

Well the popularity of that series was in TLTWATW, the other books were much less popular.

 

[Rumpy Bulge Dubz]

Well the popularity of that series was in TLTWATW, the other books were much less popular.

I remember we had to read that back in middle school. Of course I didn't as that's not my type of fiction, so obviously I'm skipping on the movies

 

[Iceman]

Edit - responding to old post

 

[DW4]

well i hope IM3 will happen. of course RDJ will be to old. but f... it.

It will. Also RDJ isn't really that old, he's only 45 and for Tony Stark that could be old but the 40's are the new 30's. Also Avengers comes out in 2 years and they'll be filming next year when he's 46 and then possibly Iron Man 3 in 2013 which means he'll be filming when he's 47. If nothing drastic happens he can pull off the role in his early 50's if needed.

I see him doing Avengers, IM3 and MAYBE one more Tony Stark role.

 

[kedrell]

I think IM3 after the Avengers will be his finale for the role, as well as Favreau's. After that it'll be time to take a breather for the character while newer franchises fill the void and then maybe a new director/cast's take on the Iron Man franchise towards the end of the decade.

 

[FaT_tONle]

Yeah it will be interesting to see who takes up the mantle. The Marvel Universe will have to go without Stark for a very long time. I mean the suits will pretty much be a common place 5-10 years from the present continuity so the legacy will be finished. I don't think Cap will be the go to guy either. Cap needs to be used selectively and not shoe-horned into every Marvel film. It will get old fast. That's why I am hoping Marvel can re-acquire the rights to their bigger characters because their A-listers will be exhausted very soon.

 

[Tony Stark]

It will. Also RDJ isn't really that old, he's only 45 and for Tony Stark that could be old but the 40's are the new 30's. Also Avengers comes out in 2 years and they'll be filming next year when he's 46 and then possibly Iron Man 3 in 2013 which means he'll be filming when he's 47. If nothing drastic happens he can pull off the role in his early 50's if needed.

I see him doing Avengers, IM3 and MAYBE one more Tony Stark role.

Considering Brosnan played Bond until he was nearly 50, I don't think it's a problem for Robert playing Tony Stark the same number of years.

 

[YJ1]

Yeah it will be interesting to see who takes up the mantle. The Marvel Universe will have to go without Stark for a very long time. I mean the suits will pretty much be a common place 5-10 years from the present continuity so the legacy will be finished. I don't think Cap will be the go to guy either. Cap needs to be used selectively and not shoe-horned into every Marvel film. It will get old fast. That's why I am hoping Marvel can re-acquire the rights to their bigger characters because their A-listers will be exhausted very soon.

Interesting point but Cap 2 can work as a flashback as well. Even after Avengers, if you want to go back and tell a great WWII story setting up Bucky/Winter Soldier that would work great.

You also know that Avengers 3D is going to be a mega-huge film. I'm, talking Avatar huge. So, the pressure to announce Avengers 2 will happen fast and they'll throw the bank at Downey at that point.

 

[Tony Stark]

Yeah it will be interesting to see who takes up the mantle. The Marvel Universe will have to go without Stark for a very long time. I mean the suits will pretty much be a common place 5-10 years from the present continuity so the legacy will be finished. I don't think Cap will be the go to guy either. Cap needs to be used selectively and not shoe-horned into every Marvel film. It will get old fast. That's why I am hoping Marvel can re-acquire the rights to their bigger characters because their A-listers will be exhausted very soon.

I think Disney/Marvel need to work on getting all the properties back in-house, and release any future films under Disney Pictures. I just think that makes the most financial sense, unless it is cheaper for them to use another studio for distribution.

I really think Marvel should try and kill this Spider-man reboot. He's their flagship character, and considering how Sony has screwed them in the past on rights, they need to get him back in house.

Now that Marvel has the backing of Disney, who have an aresenal of lawyers on retainer, they can get their characters back in house where they belong.

 

[kedrell]

I think Dr. Strange is almost certainly going to be the one next at bat after the current crop is done.

 

[FaT_tONle]

I think Disney/Marvel need to work on getting all the properties back in-house, and release any future films under Disney Pictures. I just think that makes the most financial sense, unless it is cheaper for them to use another studio for distribution.

I really think Marvel should try and kill this Spider-man reboot. He's their flagship character, and considering how Sony has screwed them in the past on rights, they need to get him back in house.

Now that Marvel has the backing of Disney, who have an aresenal of lawyers on retainer, they can get their characters back in house where they belong.

As long as Sony is sticking with high school, Marvel can just pick up where Peter Parker leaves off as a young adult. Sony probably won't get past SM6 either. Marvel may not have to completely abandon that continuity, whatever it ends up being. But DD should have already reverted and they should definitely kill FF. Fox has had X-Men since 93 so I don't think mutants will show up any time soon.

As for Stark, I could see RDJ returning to the role in his mid 50's or something if he gets bored with his other roles in the meantime. But he will be pretty grey by then. Once he does quit, I don't want to see Stark ever return unless they abandon the present continuity. Just invent another younger Stark cousin or someone else to take up the mantle.

 

[kedrell]

You can't have Iron Man without Tony Stark. Recastings are inevitable and people are just gonna have to deal with it. These characters are going to far outlast the original actors who play them. Now if later on down the line they want to do something like Iron Man: The End type of film and bring RDJ back for it, then fine by me.

 

[FaT_tONle]

Not unless they reboot. Unlike Wolverine, these characters have to age. You can't progress the current universe ten years and have a younger guy playing Stark. Now you could make an IM movie twenty years down the line that takes place several months after IM3, but as far as moving the timeline forward, why would they revisit that period? Unless Kang was time traveling back to that point or some ****, it wouldn't make sense.

 

[kedrell]

I don't think you need to reboot just to have a new cast. James Bond didn't need to reboot everytime he got a new actor. But if they do reboot, I've already thought of a way that I think would be kinda cool. Make the reboot a What If? type scenario. Like "What if Tony Stark had not revealed to the world that he is Iron Man?" and then do films from there.

 

[FaT_tONle]

The Bond movies had nothing to do with one another, even ones with the same actors. They weren't all sequels to each other. So yeah you can constantly re-imagine the character, but if you do that, you have to constantly re-imagine everything else in the universe. There would be no continuity.

 

[kedrell]

Fair enough about Bond but I still don't see how recasting the franchise necessarily means disregarding pre-existing continuity. I don't see why they can't just pick up where the others left off.

 

[FaT_tONle]

Fair enough about Bond but I still don't see how recasting the franchise necessarily means disregarding pre-existing continuity. I don't see why they can't just pick up where the others left off.

I guess you could recast, but it has to fit the years the Marvel universe has progressed. Stark can't still be 40 if 5-10 years go by in the Marvel time line. Keep in mind, WB chose not to abandon the Donner universe in SR, which was almost almost 30 years after Superman 2. IF SR had been a hit, we'd still be in the Donnerverse. Point being, if the movies worked then, they are not going to abandon it, and future films will be in line with that time line.