Iron Man 2 The Iron Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Still losing a lot of ground each day to Alice. Realistically speaking, it's probably going to lose another $7-8m over the next 5 days (Weds, Thurs, Weekend). That puts it around $10m behind after 3 weekends despite a $12m lead during opening weekend. That is a $22m turnaround in just 14 days. Not good at all.

Shrek 4 is practically a lock to open above 80mil, do you think that it will have an effect on it's 3rd weekend because I'm not sure about that right now but I think it's entirely possible.

I love crunching numbers so I might do some number crunching in my spare time and come up with some estimates on what I think it will do overall.

 

[redfirebird2008]

Shrek 4 is practically a lock to open above 80mil, do you think that it will have an effect on it's 3rd weekend because I'm not sure about that right now but I think it's entirely possible.

I actually think it could be helped since it's a Paramount release. The studios have a history of giving a boost/fudging to their holdover titles when a huge opening happens. It happened with some holdover WB/New Line titles for TDK and it happened with some Paramount/CBS titles for both TF2 and IM2. Would not be surprised if IM2 gets a boost of Shrek money and ends up with around a 40% drop for the weekend. The way it's tracking right now, without such a boost it would have a 45-48% drop. It's basically having slightly better legs than SM3 right now, roughly 4% better. SM3 dropped 50%. 96% of 50% is a 48% drop.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

40% is a bit much but I could see 45%.

 

[redfirebird2008]

40% is a bit much but I could see 45%.

Not when you look at the boosts that these studios are known to come up with for holdovers during big weekends. You have movies that are dropping badly and miraculously drop 25-30% because of the fudging. Part of that is because it usually involves much smaller movies, so giving them $1 million is a big deal. $1m wouldn't be that big of a deal for IM2. But I could see them giving it upwards of $3-4m.

 

[hatebox]

Can't rival studios tell if they're fudging numbers to that extent though?

 

[redfirebird2008]

Can't rival studios tell if they're fudging numbers to that extent though?

They generally don't give a hoot as long as they aren't breaking any records. IM2 isn't breaking records. Paramount fudged TF2 after the fact to get it over $200m for 5 days. They claimed they "miscounted" some money in Puerto Rico (Puerto freaking Rico! ) and added $2m after the fact to its Wednesday and Thursday gross when they had already reported the actuals on Saturday. Nobody was buying it, not even the guys at BOM. They questioned them and Paramount gave them a BS excuse. BOM can only report what the studios tell them. None of the other studios cared because TF2 didn't break a record. It was a nice milestone, but TDK had the record at $203.7m so WB didn't bother complaining about it.

The thing is, all the studios engage in this kind of behavior so that's why they don't call each other out on it. TDK probably didn't quite make it to $1 billion worldwide, but WB fudged it by a few million to get it there.

 

[redfirebird2008]

http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=2601&p=.htm

* Note: Revenge of the Fallen's weekend gross fell $3 million short of Paramount's Sunday estimate, which would have put the five-day opening at $198.2 million. Though shy of $200 million, it would have still ranked second among the all time five-day starts. However, Paramount revised its grosses from Wednesday and Thursday upward, and that's what pushed the total past $200 million. Wednesday went from $60.6 million to $62.0 million, and Thursday went from $28.6 million to $29.1 million. Paramount reported that the differences came from unreported showings from the movie's midnight openings on Wednesday night, which went from the previously reported $16 million at around 3,000 theaters to $16.8 million at close to 3,300 theaters, as well as late reports from institutional IMAX locations and theaters in Puerto Rico and some Caribbean islands (which the studio counts in its domestic numbers), which accounted for $1.1 million of the difference.

 

[hatebox]

Heh. I guess studios can be as childish as us fanboys too.

 

[redfirebird2008]

Heh. I guess studios can be as childish as us fanboys too.

You have no idea. Sony and Disney got into a huge flamewar between their executives when SM3 and Pirates 3 came out. They were battling over who had the biggest worldwide opening ever. Their bickering was hilarious.

EDIT: http://www.deadline.com/2007/05/hollywood-studio-catfight-over-weekend-bo/

 

[Anita18]

We're getting Iron Man in the Avengers and Iron Man 3! What the hell is there to worry about?

It's particularly worrisome because Marvel is trying to build a universe with lots of interconnecting parts. Superman not going anywhere doesn't affect Batman, because WB didn't built them up together. They're completely separate entities.

But if Iron Man is going to be involved (and help build up) Thor and Cap and Avengers, it's certainly in Marvel's interest to keep the momentum going as best as they can. If IM can no longer pull his weight in his own movies, instead of being something cool in the other movies, he might be considered baggage. Like the Hulk is considered baggage now. And then Thor, Cap, and Avengers have to be THAT much better to overcome that.

That's still a while off (and certainly a "worst case scenario"), but the first signs are already here if that's the case.

You have no idea. Sony and Disney got into a huge flamewar between their executives when SM3 and Pirates 3 came out. They were battling over who had the biggest worldwide opening ever. Their bickering was hilarious.

EDIT: http://www.deadline.com/2007/05/hollywood-studio-catfight-over-weekend-bo/

OMG that's awesome. I love it.

 

[Iron_Stark]

It's particularly worrisome because Marvel is trying to build a universe with lots of interconnecting parts. Superman not going anywhere doesn't affect Batman, because WB didn't built them up together. They're completely separate entities.

But if Iron Man is going to be involved (and help build up) Thor and Cap and Avengers, it's certainly in Marvel's interest to keep the momentum going as best as they can. If IM can no longer pull his weight in his own movies, instead of being something cool in the other movies, he might be considered baggage. Like the Hulk is considered baggage now. And then Thor, Cap, and Avengers have to be THAT much better to overcome that.

That's still a while off (and certainly a "worst case scenario"), but the first signs are already here if that's the case.

So it making 300+ million dollars domestically is considered worrisome and baggage nowadays? wow

I'd be more worried if Thor and Cap under perform before starting to worry about Iron Man becoming baggage.

And between now and the Avengers there isn't going to another Iron Man movie, now how the hell is that going to become some kind of baggage or him not being able to pull their own weight.

And what signs are you talking about?? It making 218.5 in 12 days? lmao

Yeah this is doom and gloom for Iron Man, we all need to start panicking and hoping for a reboot or for them to just scrap the Avengers altogether because of some armchair analysts that didn't even see the movie.

 

[redfirebird2008]

If it makes around $300m, that is still probably twice as much as Thor will make. And Captain America could easily flop as well. Just sayin'.

 

[Tony Stark]

Yeah it's pretty rediculous the reactions to this. The big reason for the difference in Week 2 between IM1 and IM2 has been Robin Hood. RH did almost as much business as Speed Racer and What Happens in Vegas combined, plus you had Letter to Julia pulling in 13 million.

It's like if a movie doesn't do TDK numbers now it's going to be a failure. But then I remember when IM1 came out, there were tons of people saying it wasn't going to make 300 million, and yet it did, and then some.

And to say that IM has become "baggage" to marvel is pretty laughable, but the people who hang out on the BOM boards just love to trash a movie if somehow it "underperforms", and alot of that drags over to here unfortuanately.

 

[Iron_Stark]

Yeah it's pretty rediculous the reactions to this. The big reason for the difference in Week 2 between IM1 and IM2 has been Robin Hood. RH did almost as much business as Speed Racer and What Happens in Vegas combined, plus you had Letter to Julia pulling in 13 million.

It's like if a movie doesn't do TDK numbers now it's going to be a failure. But then I remember when IM1 came out, there were tons of people saying it wasn't going to make 300 million, and yet it did, and then some.

And to say that IM has become "baggage" to marvel is pretty laughable, but the people who hang out on the BOM boards just love to trash a movie if somehow it "underperforms", and alot of that drags over to here unfortuanately.

What are the BOM boards?

 

[Tony Stark]

Box office Mojo

 

[Iron_Stark]

Oh. haha I went to their boards once and never again. And this was before Iron Man.

Looks like nothing's changed.

 

[hatebox]

Box office is all about expectation though. IM2 not getting $400m aside, if it doesn't surpass its predecessor then I think it will be considered a disappointment by the studio. SM2 not doing that was more tolerable because SM1 was a genuine phenomenon, and likewise no-one expects Batman 3 to beat TDK. But Paramount absolutely would have released IM2 with IM1's $320m as a pretty easy goal. I'd have thought.

 

[redfirebird2008]

Box office is all about expectation though. IM2 not getting $400m aside, if it doesn't surpass its predecessor then I think it will be considered a disappointment by the studio. SM2 not doing that was more tolerable because SM1 was a genuine phenomenon, and likewise no-one expects Batman 3 to beat TDK. But Paramount absolutely would have released IM2 with IM1's $320m as a pretty easy goal. I'd have thought.

You wouldn't think they tacked on $60m to the budget expecting to make less at the domestic box office. That being said, it's on track to make more worldwide than the first one although the studio gets a larger piece of the domestic box office than they do from the foreign box office. Distribution deals are not as friendly overseas as they are in North America, where Hollywood has the theaters by the balls.

 

[TheVileOne]

The Vile One, you are usually pretty levelheaded about boxoffice numbers regardless of your like or dislike of the film but I think that this is one of those times where you are letting your love of the film get in the way.

Nobody is calling the movie a disaster or a flop but it's numbers and overall reception are worrisome for the future of the franchise. Just like Spider-Man 3's reception would have hurt a real 4th Spider-Man movie, I think that the "meh/it was pretty good but not as good as the first one" reception will hurt a sequel to Iron Man 2.


The discussion about this flick's boxoffice numbers reminds me of the Superman Returns arguements.

For the record, I don't dislike Iron Man 2 because of it's boxoffice numbers I dislike it for all the reasons that I've already stated.

Anyway I'm not going to compare Spider-Man and Iron Man's boxoffice numbers anymore because the first Iron Man movie made nowhere near as much as the first Spider-Man movie. I'm going to compare it to Transformers because Transformers had a simular total gross and legs.

Comparisons to Spider-man 3 and Superman Returns are irrelevant, invalid, and illegitimate.

I'm getting sick of all you naysayers and haters. And your misperceptions.

First of all this movie is going to break over $300 million domestic. Also 2 years ago some of you said that wouldn't even happen and the first movie surpassed Indiana Jones domestically.

Second of all, going by the numbers the movie will be close to, just over, or at around $250 million after its THIRD WEEKEND. Fourth weekend is BING BING BING - Memorial Day. Holiday weekend. Holiday weekends like Memorial Day are an automatic booster for movies like this. Iron Man is still fresh enough where a Memorial Day weekend BO payoff will be quite good. So after Memorial Day weekend chances are it will be at or around $270-275 million after just 4 weekends. Everything that happens after that is gravy and the movie is looking at a very considerable worldwide take considering this movie is FAR outperforming Iron Man overseas.

A genuine disappointment is something like ROBIN HOOD.

Now naysayers can spin this because it's not making like $400 million or whatever, but very few movies have done that. And once again, these numbers will put Iron Man in the top tier franchises. It's

 

[ElMariachi]

you people are downright silly if you think they should be worried about the franchise. It's been out for a few weeks and after today will be around 470 million dollars. Sure, the studio will want to make more money---but why should this concern any of us? I said it before, we are guaranteed an Avengers movie and Iron Man 3. Seriously, what do some of you people really want? I have already come to the conclusion that some on this thread are taking glee in the "poor" box office numbers of this movie.

Why this movie isn't making insane money? Who knows or really cares? Iron Man doesn't have a large fanbase, it's not really a kid friendly movie (in my opinion), no hearthrobs died during it's making, etc. It has nothing to do with the quality of the movie. If that was the case, then movies like New Moon, Transformers, and Alvin and the Chipmunks wouldn't be making mad cash. Some movies are just phenoms. Iron Man came out of nowhere. Dark Knight wasn't that much better then Begins, yet it made mad dough. Blind Side and Hangover last year made huge money, even though they were nothing special. You people expected this movie to be a guaranteed phenom like Avatar and in the end it is only a blockbuster.

Iron Man 2 has already made more money at the box office then Star Trek did in half a year by the way, for the guy who brought that movie up. It was one of the best movies of last year and made less domestically then some real garbage. There are simply more little children, screaming girls, and Harry Potter fans in the world then there are sci-fi fans and geeks.

 

[redfirebird2008]

you people are downright silly if you think they should be worried about the franchise. It's been out for a few weeks and after today will be around 470 million dollars. Sure, the studio will want to make more money---but why should this concern any of us? I said it before, we are guaranteed an Avengers movie and Iron Man 3. Seriously, what do some of you people really want? I have already come to the conclusion that some on this thread are taking glee in the "poor" box office numbers of this movie.

Why this movie isn't making insane money? Who knows or really cares? Iron Man doesn't have a large fanbase, it's not really a kid friendly movie (in my opinion), no hearthrobs died during it's making, etc. It has nothing to do with the quality of the movie. If that was the case, then movies like New Moon, Transformers, and Alvin and the Chipmunks wouldn't be making mad cash. Some movies are just phenoms. Iron Man came out of nowhere. Dark Knight wasn't that much better then Begins, yet it made mad dough. Blind Side and Hangover last year made huge money, even though they were nothing special. You people expected this movie to be a guaranteed phenom like Avatar and in the end it is only a blockbuster.

Iron Man 2 has already made more money at the box office then Star Trek did in half a year by the way, for the guy who brought that movie up. It was one of the best movies of last year and made less domestically then some real garbage. There are simply more little children, screaming girls, and Harry Potter fans in the world then there are sci-fi fans and geeks.

I think the kid factor is what's holding it back from being as big as Transformers 2 for instance. The Iron Man movies aren't just a bunch of explosions. There's a lot of dialogue, most of which is adult-oriented humor and so forth.

As for your assessment of The Hangover, I completely disagree. It is one of my favorite movies from the last 5-10 years. Incredibly rewatchable for me. But that's the thing about taste. One man's trash is another man's treasure.

 

[ElMariachi]

I think the kid factor is what's holding it back from being as big as Transformers 2 for instance. The Iron Man movies aren't just a bunch of explosions. There's a lot of dialogue, most of which is adult-oriented humor and so forth.

As for your assessment of The Hangover, I completely disagree. It is one of my favorite movies from the last 5-10 years. Incredibly rewatchable for me. But that's the thing about taste. One man's trash is another man's treasure.

yeah, it really isn't a kids movie at all. I don't think that they can really appreciate some of the dialouge or jokes. Kids aren't going to understand the whole Senate hearing scene (one of the best in the movie), how Tony Stark is basically Howard Hughes, or get a kick out of the comparisons of the Stark Expo with Epcot Center (a childs least favorite park). Little stuff like that is what made this movie good for me. Down to the tiny details like the Stark Expo theme song, which is a play on "Great Big Beautiful Tomorrow" and how his dad has similarities with Walt Disney. This movie didn't really have a ton of action (until the end) and the plot was basically about two rival tycoons/military industrial complex.

As for Hangover, not a bad flick but it really wasn't as great as everybody is making it out to be in my opinion. I realize I am alone on this one. And I like comedies too. This one just didn't have my crying with laughter like Old School, Anchorman, Bad Santa, Superbad, or Borat. I put Hangover in the same category as Wedding Crashers, Zoolander, and American Pie. Funny, but pretty overrated by the people who rave about them.

 

[redfirebird2008]

I put Hangover in the same category as Wedding Crashers, Zoolander, and American Pie. Funny, but pretty overrated by the people who rave about them.

Wedding Crashers is terrible. Zoolander is even worse. And American Pie is good but not great. The thing that makes the Hangover a hell of a lot better than those movies is great acting. The three leads were all great, especially Ed Helms. "Am I missing a tooth? I look like a nerdy hillbilly." Holy crap he was awesome.

 

[lespaul59]

yeah, it really isn't a kids movie at all. I don't think that they can really appreciate some of the dialouge or jokes. Kids aren't going to understand the whole Senate hearing scene (one of the best in the movie), how Tony Stark is basically Howard Hughes, or get a kick out of the comparisons of the Stark Expo with Epcot Center (a childs least favorite park). Little stuff like that is what made this movie good for me. Down to the tiny details like the Stark Expo theme song, which is a play on "Great Big Beautiful Tomorrow" and how his dad has similarities with Walt Disney. This movie didn't really have a ton of action (until the end) and the plot was basically about two rival tycoons/military industrial complex.

As for Hangover, not a bad flick but it really wasn't as great as everybody is making it out to be in my opinion. I realize I am alone on this one. And I like comedies too. This one just didn't have my crying with laughter like Old School, Anchorman, Bad Santa, Superbad, or Borat. I put Hangover in the same category as Wedding Crashers, Zoolander, and American Pie. Funny, but pretty overrated by the people who rave about them.

No your not alone on this one, I thought the hangover was funny but it's not something I'm gonna be watching again anytime soon. I'm actually kinda glad I got it on PPV insted of buying the BR. Personaly I don't see how a movie already over $200 million before it's third weekend is a bad thing. Sure it had a big drop off last weekend but Robin Hood did make $36 million which had to be some of IM's business if a weeker movie or a movie with less buzz (how ever you would say it) had opened insted. Plus lets face it IM has things other than the BO going for it like DVD/BR sales and merchendise thats being sold.

 

[TheVileOne]

Also about the whole momentum building thing.

What was the last Marvel Studios movie before Iron Man 2? And I'm not counting X-men stuff.

It was The Incredible Hulk. The Incredible Hulk did NOT do very well. It didn't do well enough to convince Marvel to do the sequels they had talked about before the film. It did OK, it still suffered from the stigma of Hulk 2003 and it did about the same amount of business and about the same with critics. But did The Incredible Hulk kill the momentum of Iron Man 2? No. Did it kill the momentum of Thor, Cap, and Avengers? I don't think it has. Now I mean part of it is up to the distributor to make a dynamite marketing campaign and the studio has to followup with solid competent movies.

Now these movies are important to us. I get it. We are nervous and biting our nails over it. But don't twist stuff around that isn't there.