Iron Man 3 The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[KangConquers]

I don't think its on par with the Avengers, more like around IM1 and IM2 levels. Although the Saturday jump will be pretty indicative.

I'm seeing Iron Man 3 topping out at about $450-475 M domestic. Avengers legs would give it a $525 M.

 

[vailian48]

KC, question, which do you think is more likely? 500+ domestic or 800+ overseas or anybody else really can answer if you want

 

[Tony Stark]

I'd say 800M OS, I think it will be hard to get to 500M domestic with the movies coming out, unless ST or FF6 bombs, or something unforeseen. There's just too much competition this year compared to last May.

 

[Liam_H]

$800 million OS is far more likely, with $700 million being a lock already.

 

[KangConquers]

$800 M foreign is probably 75-80% likely, $500 M probably 30-40%.

 

[Iceman]

$800m OS has a good chance of happening. It won't be that far off by the end of this weekend. $500m domestic would still take a huge effort, one bad weekend drop and it would be over. It's probably more likely not to happen than to happen, but can't be ruled out yet.

 

[Mr. Dent]

I'd say $500m has more like a 15% chance. It would have to have incredible legs which would be hard normally not to mention with Star Trek coming out.

 

[schiz0id]

I don't think its on par with the Avengers, more like around IM1 and IM2 levels. Although the Saturday jump will be pretty indicative.

You're right I concede. So I'm lowering my estimates to 460m-475m

 

[KangConquers]

I'd say $500m has more like a 15% chance. It would have to have incredible legs which would be hard normally not to mention with Star Trek coming out.

This movie is basically performing like Captain America: The First Avenger, ratio wise.

If we used Cap's exact ratio, Iron Man 3 would end up at $473.6 M.

 

[vailian48]

in the end, what i am trying to say is would it be a complete shock if iron man 3 reached 500+ domestic? i mean for me, it is not impossible but not locked

the closest comparison that i could make from the top of my head for its gross domestically would be for it to be compared to skyfall domestically, 200+ was not certain at first then it eventually became locked, 300+ was a question for a while then it became locked-now, does that mean that iron man 3 will absolutely reach 400+ domestic? no, but, like the 200 domestic for skyfall, 400 domestic is more likely than before(yes, it is not on par with the avengers but it does not need to be for 400+ domestic to happen),500+ domestic for iron man 3? again, like 300+ for skyfall, who knows right now, it might happen, right now, it is too early to say, and yes, i am comparing 200/300 to 400/500 but at least to me, it is sort of the same scenario, however, i can see other people saying that it is nowhere near the same scenario

(600+ domestic is impossible though) (there is absolutely no way that is happening)

 

[rashad]

IM3 is not Skyfall. 500M ain't happening.

 

[KangConquers]

IM3 is not Skyfall. 500M ain't happening.

If you mean in terms of film quality, maybe not. If you mean in terms of box office, this film is barreling past Skyfall next Tuesday.

 

[vailian48]

ok, IM3 is not skyfall, that is true however, why would you say 500+ is defenatly not happening?

 

[vailian48]

KC, neither, sorry about that guys, that was my fault, i meant in terms of how 200 and 300 domestic were perceived for skyfall and how 400 and 500 domestic are being perceived for iron man 3, perceived meaning how likely or unlikely

 

[Tony Stark]

IM3 is not Skyfall. 500M ain't happening.

Umm, IM3 is going to outgross Skyfall by next week. I don't understand what you're saying.

 

[vailian48]

rashad was responding to what i said guys

he was saying that skyfall and iron man 3 are not comparable and even though iron man 3 will absolutely make more than skyfall domestically that in his opinion there is no way that iron man 3 will reach 500+ domestic

 

[Tony Stark]

Early numbers show a 20M Friday, so looks like 70-75. Gatsby is showing strong possibly $55M, but it looks like its sucking most of its audience from Peeples which is tanking. Maybe 3.5M for Friday.

 

[chiefchirpa]

IM3 is not Skyfall. 500M ain't happening.

What are you talking about, Super-fan?

Skyfall's domestic is 300M+, the rest 7/10 of the intake coming from international receipt. Iron Man's domestic will be higher than that for sure as next weekend it will nearly match Skyfall's domestic.

 

[Iceman]

This movie is basically performing like Captain America: The First Avenger, ratio wise.

If we used Cap's exact ratio, Iron Man 3 would end up at $473.6 M.

Sounds good to me. Probably a good film to compare it to for drops. Avengers really was consistently strong even after the crazy opening weekend.

 

[Iceman]

in the end, what i am trying to say is would it be a complete shock if iron man 3 reached 500+ domestic? i mean for me, it is not impossible but not locked

the closest comparison that i could make from the top of my head for its gross domestically would be for it to be compared to skyfall domestically, 200+ was not certain at first then it eventually became locked, 300+ was a question for a while then it became locked-now, does that mean that iron man 3 will absolutely reach 400+ domestic? no, but, like the 200 domestic for skyfall, 400 domestic is more likely than before(yes, it is not on par with the avengers but it does not need to be for 400+ domestic to happen),500+ domestic for iron man 3? again, like 300+ for skyfall, who knows right now, it might happen, right now, it is too early to say, and yes, i am comparing 200/300 to 400/500 but at least to me, it is sort of the same scenario, however, i can see other people saying that it is nowhere near the same scenario

(600+ domestic is impossible though) (there is absolutely no way that is happening)

It's not impossible, just not likely. It would need excellent holds every weekend to achieve that and the possibility will probably be ruled out soon if this or the weekend after aren't also really big.

A x3 multiplier is very difficult when you have a crazy opening weekend. And Iron Man 3's expected reception is probably not enough to push it all the way. Plus there's some strong competition on the way. Could get close though.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

600 million domestic? Dont think so. Im not even ready to go to 500 million. I loved the movie, but I doubt it will have anywhere near the legs of Avengers domestically. Overseas, I think 800 is a real possibility. 1.25 billion is my revised estimate.

 

[Iceman]

Yeah I don't think anyone ever thought $600m as a possibility. I expect well into the 400s.

 

[Raiden]

I don't expect IM3 to surpass 500M domestic, but I think it will be close.

 

[KangConquers]

600 million domestic? Dont think so. Im not even ready to go to 500 million. I loved the movie, but I doubt it will have anywhere near the legs of Avengers domestically. Overseas, I think 800 is a real possibility. 1.25 billion is my revised estimate.

$1 Billion Foreign is more likely than $600 M domestic.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Less then 20m on Friday. That is a huge drop.