Iron Man 3 The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[MessiahDecoy123]

I think 400 m domestic, 800 m overseas, and 1.2 billion worldwide is a pretty reasonable estimate at this point.

 

[Tony Stark]

Less then 20m on Friday. That is a huge drop.

Its a good number considering Gatsby did better than anyone expected.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Its a good number considering Gatsby did better than anyone expected.

Better then everyone on here was expecting. Everyone was trashing it here. No way it could come close in the second week. It might win.

Never underestimate the female audience.

 

[KangConquers]

Friday drop was slightly better than The Dark Knight Rises 76.6% drop. I'm not too concerned about it breaking past 400 M, and probably $450 M, but this definitely takes $500 M off of the table.

 

[Raiden]

I'm a bit surprised that The Great Gatsby did as well as it did, but I think IM3 can still win the weekend.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Friday drop was slightly better than The Dark Knight Rises 76.6% drop. I'm not too concerned about it breaking past 400 M, and probably $450 M, but this definitely takes $500 M off of the table.

We will see what the big hitters will do. A lot coming out the next few weeks. STID could kill it stone dead. But I think $400m is still probable.

 

[Tony Stark]

Better then everyone on here was expecting. Everyone was trashing it here. No way it could come close in the second week. It might win.

Never underestimate the female audience.

It might win Friday, not the weekend. IM3 will still end up at 70 or thereabout, GG will be in the 50's.

 

[KangConquers]

We will see what the big hitters will do. A lot coming out the next few weeks. STID could kill it stone dead. But I think $400m is still probably.

$400 M is still a lock.

 

[Bruce Malone]

So is iron man still taking this weekend? Apparently gatsby is tracking for $50m+ (who'dve of known?).

I don't know if it's going to have the type of audience retention the Avengers had?

 

[Ironfan72]

Gatsby is tracking at $50 Million +, Iron Man 3 is tracking at $65 Million +, as of a report I see earlier on yahoo, Iron Man is still drawing a huge male audience while Gatsby is bring in the female audience.
When I went for the first showing this morning, I heard several asking for Gatsby tickets but heard just as many or more for Iron man 3 tickets, there actually was a bigger audience today for the IM3 showing than on opening day for IM3.

 

[Superhero 101]

I think Gatsby has a really good chance of knocking IM3 I mean they have been marketing it like crazy!

 

[Tony Stark]

I think Gatsby has a really good chance of knocking IM3 I mean they have been marketing it like crazy!

You mean for the weekend? GG would have to have an unheard of internal multiplier.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Wonder if Mother's day will have any effect.

 

[kedrell]

So a 63% drop if we get a $65M weekend. Hopefully it's a trend.

 

[Iceman]

GG looks like it's done well but IM3 should still beat it out for the weekend.

 

[Pickle-El]

So a 63% drop if we get a $65M weekend. Hopefully it's a trend.

That would be bigger than Spiderman 3's 61% drop. I mentioned last week to wait till the Avengers bullet-proof inspired first week numbers happen and WOM kicks in weeks 2 and 3....

Seems like it will not have Avengers or IM1 legs. Avengers multiplier was 3.0 and IM1 was 3.2.

At the week 2 rate, if it continues with a similar multiplier of around 2.23 (lets call it 2.3 to be nice) You are looking at damn near exactly 400 million. (400.2). But, we don't know how Star Trek 2 and the rest of May affects IM3 numbers. Could be less, could be worse.

Here are your multiplier #'s

2.2 = 382 million
2.3 = 400 million
2.4 = 417 million
2.5 = 435 million

No point going above 2.5.....likely won't happen. Worst case, 380ish. And best case (if over 60% drop week 2 is true) is somewhere around 430.

Internationally is where this film is really overreaching. Those numbers are truly incredible.

 

[Pickle-El]

GG looks like it's done well but IM3 should still beat it out for the weekend.

GG exceeded expectations. I thought no more than 30 for the weekend. But 50 Million? That's waaaay more than anyone anticipated.

 

[Iceman]

GG exceeded expectations. I thought no more than 30 for the weekend. But 50 Million? That's waaaay more than anyone anticipated.

I know but $50m is still less than the low end of IM3 weekend expectations.

 

[Pickle-El]

I know but $50m is still less than the low end of IM3 weekend expectations.

Def. Though, we all assumed that IM3 would steamroll is by about 40 (75 million to about 35million)

Either, GG took a good chunk of female business away from IM3. Or, WOM on the film isn't as great as initially thought.

In a month like May, the weekdays are weaker (due to school) and weekends stronger as crowds can make it to the theatre. IM1, SM1, Avengers, none dropped below 50%. (All May movies)

Wanna see a scary weekend drops? Look at Spiderman 1 from 2002.

http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=spiderman.htm

114 million 1st weekend
71 million 2nd weekend
45 Million 3rd weekend
35 Million 4th weekend

This thing had a multiplier of 3.5

 

[Iceman]

Def. Though, we all assumed that IM3 would steamroll is by about 40 (75 million to about 35million)

Either, GG took a good chunk of female business away from IM3. Or, WOM on the film isn't as great as initially thought.

In a month like May, the weekdays are weaker (due to school) and weekends stronger as crowds can make it to the theatre. IM1, SM1, Avengers, none dropped below 50%. (All May movies)

Wanna see a scary weekend drops? Look at Spiderman 1 from 2002.

http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=spiderman.htm

114 million 1st weekend
71 million 2nd weekend
45 Million 3rd weekend
35 Million 4th weekend

This thing had a multiplier of 3.5

Yeah & all after an opening weekend record which is the crazy thing. That film had the rare freshness of being the 1st ever Spider-man movie and 1st big budget comic film of this new era. Was a great time!

 

[vailian48]

in the local area where i live (meaning local area around zip code) for normal viewings, today, iron man 3 was able to sell out 10 of its 41 showings, i am not saying for it to be impressive but that is still good though, and i didnt see anything about yesterday to see if it sold out any yesterday and i do not know if it will sell out any tommorow

all of the rooms were 100+ by the way, how much above 100+? i do not know

and no other movie sold out any today,


now, i know some of you said that you heard just as many people asking for great gatsby as you did for iron man 3, so, of course, every area is going to be different and also, this might be typical for movies that ended up in the 400 domestic range

 

[Xeno]

Friday drop was slightly better than The Dark Knight Rises 76.6% drop. I'm not too concerned about it breaking past 400 M, and probably $450 M, but this definitely takes $500 M off of the table.

Frankly, $500M DOM was never on the table, but $400M was and still is.

 

[kedrell]

Frankly, $500M DOM was never on the table, but $400M was and still is.

Not unless it was as well received as IM1, TA, etc. If it had been in their ball park quality-wise then $500M would have definitely been on the table.

 

[kedrell]

Yeah & all after an opening weekend record which is the crazy thing. That film had the rare freshness of being the 1st ever Spider-man movie and 1st big budget comic film of this new era. Was a great time!

9/11 had A LOT to do with that, I think. I'll always wonder how well the movie would have done w/o it's impact just as I'll alwys wonder how well TDK would have done had Ledger not died.

 

[Iceman]

9/11 had A LOT to do with that, I think. I'll always wonder how well the movie would have done w/o it's impact just as I'll alwys wonder how well TDK would have done had Ledger not died.

It did? I'd probably only just started using the internet regularly around then and of course am not from US so didn't even know. Guess it makes sense as Spidey can be quite a patriotic hero. I really liked that Twin Towers Spidey trailer they pulled. One of the best I can think of.