Iron Man 3 The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Paladin-Hoss]

I dare someone to make that quote their sig

 

[KangConquers]

If there's one thing Gandhi wasn't, it was offensive.

We're not allowed to attack groups of people on the hype (Nolanites, Trekkies etc.) Thus my prefacing the quote.

 

[KangConquers]

It's not that I don't appreciate their love for those movies. Nolan's Batman Trilogy is fantastic (though the Dark Knight Rises has some notable flaws.) The problem is the air of superiority. Why are we not allowed to have fun at the movies? Why is a movie crap if it has "too much humor?"

Some of the attitudes have actually soured me to the movies, which is a shame. I saw Batman Begins opening day and loved it, and I loved The Dark Knight as well. But I began to resent it a bit when every tent pole or would be tent pole discussion had someone bringing up how film x "wasn't as good as The Dark Knight."

I enjoy Nolan's take on Batman, but I also enjoy Whedon's take on Avengers. I don't think Nolan's take on the superhero would work for Avengers. The Marvel Cinematic Universe tone, more often than not, serves it's characters well.

 

[jmc]

Who said you can't have fun movies?

 

[eddy]

I don't get the fanboy wars. I am majorly hyped to see Man of Steel.

 

[BigThor]

Th Great Nolan vs Whedon Fanboy War of 2012.

We will see nothing as loathsome until the Great Avengers vs Star Wars battle of 2015.

Don't you mean the Great Avengers vs Justice League war of 2015?

 

[jmc]

What JL movie?

 

[psylockolussus]

I don't think we will see a JL movie in 2015.

 

[schiz0id]

I don't think we will see a JL movie in 2015.

Yeah. Nothing has been announced officially, and if they do announce it after Man Of Steel gets good traction (hopefully) 2015 is cutting it too close for production. Maybe it will go head to head when Avengers 3 comes to theatres?

 

[ctsketch]

Yeah. Nothing has been announced officially, and if they do announce it after Man Of Steel gets good traction (hopefully) 2015 is cutting it too close for production. Maybe it will go head to head when Avengers 3 comes to theatres?

Avengers 3 won't be a for a long while...I think there will be JLA before then

 

[LauraT]

I think if MOS is the big hit they're banking on this summer then JL will jump to top priority and they could have it out by 2015, although it seems quite rushed. Whedon only came aboard TA in July 2010, although Marvel were further on in the pre production process at that point than WB are now. Though I still think 2016 is more likely, especially as they haven't got a DCU mapped out in the same way yet.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

I enjoy Nolan's take on Batman, but I also enjoy Whedon's take on Avengers. I don't think Nolan's take on the superhero would work for Avengers. The Marvel Cinematic Universe tone, more often than not, serves it's characters well.

Despite the Ultimate influence on the MCU, in general it has that old-fashioned, swashbuckling good time feel to it. That's not to say it's dated or out of touch (clearly it isn't for most people), it just feels more like the old school classics to me. Similar to Raimi's films, which were clearly inspired by the 60's Lee/Ditko/Romita era of that character, but even more so. If the genre is still thriving in 10 -15 years, I have no doubt the universe will evolve as it goes forward with new creative talent and the leadership turnover that is likely to happen. So it won't be in this place forever as directors will look to put their own spin on these characters.

 

[Tony Stark]

I don't think we will see a JL movie in 2015.

I don't think there will be a JL movie for a long, long time. Every piece of "information" based on Justice League has been a false rumor, other than them hiring Beall to write a script, later to find out the studio though the script was horrible and threw it out.

I don't think Justice League works on screen. For one thing, we have yet to see if other than Batman, modern audiences will accept these characters. MoS visually looks great, but on the otherhand, the movie just looks like another rehash of Superman 1 and 2, where Batman Begins was a very different movie than Burtons '89 Batman.

There no evidence that outside of their fanbases that anyone cares about Flash, Green Lantern, or Aquaman. The only other character that I think might do well in a solo film is Wonder Woman.

People need to realize that these films have to have a life beyond their own fan base. Most of the Marvel characters have been able to do that, with the exception of Daredevil, Ghost Rider and Punisher.

We'll see what happens but I don't think that this film will ever be made, and if it does, I bet it's another Green Lantern style flop. By coming in second it's always going to be compared to Avengers, and sorry folks but JL isn't going to compete with Avengers, at least not now.

 

[Tony Stark]

I dare someone to make that quote their sig

I'm so tempted, but I'd want to clear it with the mods first. That is by far the most awesome quote I've read on these forums in a long, long time. KC hit that one out of the park.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

I don't think there will be a JL movie for a long, long time. Every piece of "information" based on Justice League has been a false rumor, other than them hiring Beall to write a script, later to find out the studio though the script was horrible and threw it out.

I don't think Justice League works on screen. For one thing, we have yet to see if other than Batman, modern audiences will accept these characters. MoS visually looks great, but on the otherhand, the movie just looks like another rehash of Superman 1 and 2, where Batman Begins was a very different movie than Burtons '89 Batman.

There no evidence that outside of their fanbases that anyone cares about Flash, Green Lantern, or Aquaman. The only other character that I think might do well in a solo film is Wonder Woman.

People need to realize that these films have to have a life beyond their own fan base. Most of the Marvel characters have been able to do that, with the exception of Daredevil, Ghost Rider and Punisher.

We'll see what happens but I don't think that this film will ever be made, and if it does, I bet it's another Green Lantern style flop. By coming in second it's always going to be compared to Avengers, and sorry folks but JL isn't going to compete with Avengers, at least not now.

I was under the impression that WB was waiting on the MoS returns to move forward on JL. I'm shocked you feel this way. While I don't think a Flash or Wonder Woman film would be huge hits, a Justce League film would be a monster. Maybe not Avengers level at first, but eventually it could rival it if the film(s) are good..

 

[Mr.M]

I think WB just has to say **** it, and Nolanize the **** out of the DCverse, fanboys be damned. Every character needs to be as grounded as possible. Superman is basically a First Contact movie. Hopefully they capitalize on that angle and maximize the story from that (kinda odd that all the aliens are human but that's what nut jobs in Green Lantern are for). I think if you keep it grounded within the possibilities of sci-fi, it can work. I think GL has to be closer to Star Trek than Iron Man. For WW, I would go the Indiana Jones route, with archaeologists sniffing out the island of Themyscira and uncovering Wonder Woman, sort of as a bridge to the world today. Aquaman, don't really have an answer for that one (another archeology/mythology premis maybe?). Flash, his abilities are no more over the top than Ant-Man, so you can work with that. Otherwise I think the general public will laugh these characters out of the theatre.

 

[Tony Stark]

I was under the impression that WB was waiting on the MoS returns to move forward on JL. I'm shocked you feel this way. While I don't think a Flash or Wonder Woman film would be huge hits, a Justce League film would be a monster. Maybe not Avengers level at first, but eventually it could rival it if the film(s) are good..

It's like the discussion we're having on the Star Trek boards. Star Trek has a long running enthusiastic but relatively small fan base, that seems to have hit the ceiling. If the next Star Wars movie is titled Star Wars Episode 7, the Return of Jar Jar Binks, it will still make a billion dollars. Star Wars just has a much larger more inclusive fan base. Avengers has proven that it has the largest and most inclusive fan base right now.

I think Justice League has a limited but enthusiastic fan base. But the total flop of a performance from Green Lantern, the fact that whoever the next Batman is, it will get a lower response than Christian Bale's character, and the uncertainty of MoS, and Henry Cavil as a B-list actor, I just don't think this goes anywhere.

The biggest thing as I said, is the fact that people will view Justice League now as a copy of Avengers. Fair or not, that's the reality.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

It's like the discussion we're having on the Star Trek boards. Star Trek has a long running enthusiastic but relatively small fan base, that seems to have hit the ceiling. If the next Star Wars movie is titled Star Wars Episode 7, the Return of Jar Jar Binks, it will still make a billion dollars. Star Wars just has a much larger more inclusive fan base. Avengers has proven that it has the largest and most inclusive fan base right now.

I think Justice League has a limited but enthusiastic fan base. But the total flop of a performance from Green Lantern, the fact that whoever the next Batman is, it will get a lower response than Christian Bale's character, and the uncertainty of MoS, and Henry Cavil as a B-list actor, I just don't think this goes anywhere.

The biggest thing as I said, is the fact that people will view Justice League now as a copy of Avengers. Fair or not, that's the reality.

Only time will tell I guess. I've come to the conclusion that I'm out of touch with the GA. Perhaps visiting boards like this has skewed my perspective on things. I underrated the boost IM3 would get from Avengers by chalking it up to overzealous fanboy talk. It was something I'd seen happen many times in the past. Even now, if someone predicted that TA2 will make 2 billion I'd think that person is crazy. Not because I don't think is possible, moreso the fact that luck is involved in reaching that level of success. Timing is a big factor. Even if Avengers 2 was twice as good as the first film, that's no gaurantee it makes more money (Spider-Man 2). The Avengers just hit a sweet spot with the GA. There is really no science to achieving that.

 

[Tony Stark]

You're right about Avengers 2, and I brought this up with TDKR when people were predicting 210-220M for that film. Avengers pushed the limits of the theater chains. There was so much walk up business AMC's credit card system went down. Unless there is a dramatic increase in the number of theaters and screens before the next Avengers film, the best it can do is about what the first one did. There was no way TDKR was going to break Avenger's record, because to account for the gap in the 3D prices, there would not be enough screens available to make up the difference.

The only thing that is really going to make the next big record setter is inflation. There's no need to build more theater chains or add more screens, because the theater chains would lose money by doing so.

 

[metaphysician]

Despite the Ultimate influence on the MCU, in general it has that old-fashioned, swashbuckling good time feel to it. That's not to say it's dated or out of touch (clearly it isn't for most people), it just feels more like the old school classics to me. Similar to Raimi's films, which were clearly inspired by the 60's Lee/Ditko/Romita era of that character, but even more so. If the genre is still thriving in 10 -15 years, I have no doubt the universe will evolve as it goes forward with new creative talent and the leadership turnover that is likely to happen. So it won't be in this place forever as directors will look to put their own spin on these characters.

I realize you probably don't mean to imply this, but I have to add: however, while the genre will obviously continue to evolve as time passes, this does *not* mean it will grow more and more like the Nolan Batman films. If anything, its highly likely it will do the opposite, with the obvious success of movies with strong fantastical elements and optimistic tones.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

I realize you probably don't mean to imply this, but I have to add: however, while the genre will obviously continue to evolve as time passes, this does *not* mean it will grow more and more like the Nolan Batman films. If anything, its highly likely it will do the opposite, with the obvious success of movies with strong fantastical elements and optimistic tones.

Sure. I didn't necessarily mean like Nolan per se, just the tone of these films in general. The Avengers was a throwback film, timeless in it's appeal, but less modern in it's approach. That's all. You can do optimisic and fantastical elements in films that feel more contempoary, even with the fact that cynicism is the dominant underrcurrent in modern cinema. It's just a matter of style and approach.

 

[ctsketch]

Maybe we should focus on # of tickets sold instead of actual $$$

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I think people are underestimating a Justice League film's potential.

If you have a bad ass superbowl trailer with Flash, Wonder Woman and Superman fighting a powerful super-villain with Batman peering and planning in the background, you're looking at Iron Man 3 worldwide numbers easily if the movie is decent.

 

[Tony Stark]

I think people are underestimating a Justice League film's potential.

If you have a bad ass superbowl trailer with Flash, Wonder Woman and Superman fighting a powerful super-villain with Batman peering and planning in the background, you're looking at Iron Man 3 worldwide numbers easily if the movie is decent.

Only if Christian Bale is involved and if MoS does well. Again I draw the Star Trek, Star Wars comparison. I just think Avengers is more popular with the general public right now, plus there was the whole build up with Avengers to create anticipation, as well as getting rave reviews.

Perception is often times reality, and right now WB looks desperate trying to put together a JL movie. They have no plan as Marvel did right from the start of Marvel Studios launch. It hasn't been a year since a JLA movie was "announced" and they've deviated from that plan multiple times.

Thor, Cap, XFC and Green Lantern were all released in the same year, and Green Lantern was the least popular of those films, not to mention the most critically panned. All of the Marvel Studios films have done reasonably well, and generally received good ratings among critics and fans. WB can't get past Batman and Superman.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

At the risk of being totally offensive...there's a quote from Ghandi about Christianity that can be reappropriated for this.

"I like your Christopher Nolan, but I do not like your Nolanites."

You nailed it man. Or, well, Ghandi did. Anyway, good job with the quote. Sums things up nicely.

oh and fyi, Ghandi insulted MILLIONS of people from various factions. it may not have been justified, but PC he was not. you shouldnt comment on things you know little about. my two cents.