Iron Man 3 The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[bubbadoom]

Looks like IM3 passes the $400M mark by Father's Day...nice...

 

[Visualiza]

In retrospect, looks like more than the lion's share of us were way off the mark in our predictions; I know I was. I think I had it pegged to clock in at no more than 700M WW.

I still have rather conservative estimates for Thor and CA, so I'm wondering how those will turn out as well.

 

[TheIrishAvenger]

@ERCBoxOffice: IRON MAN 3 update: Domestic - $394.3M, Int'l - $802.3M, WW - $1.196B

https://***********/ERCboxoffice/status/343738813320929280

 

[Silver Surfer]

I've underestimated Marvel twice and been made to look a fool. This time I'm overestimating Thor and maybe Cap through the roof, odds are...

 

[schiz0id]

I've underestimated Marvel twice and been made to look a fool. This time I'm overestimating Thor and maybe Cap through the roof, odds are...

800m and 650m for and ?

 

[Superhero 101]

Yeah I'd say those numbers are pretty accurate for what I expect those two movies to make

 

[Visualiza]

Captain America is still something of a wild card to me. I think Thor will do quite well; the first film definitely had a much higher take than I ever would have expected.

 

[chiefchirpa]

405M Dom above unadjusted Spiderman 1, above 1.2B WW is good enough for me

 

[Bruce Malone]

It's multiplier isn't amazing especially compared to the avengers or TDKR from last year as it sort of fell between both in OW.

However for a 3rd film in the series i suppose what more could you want?

 

[Tony Stark]

It's back ahead of IM2, at this point IM 2 added about 10M more to it's domestic total. I orgininally thought 410M for IM3, I'm upping that to 412-415.

 

[Xeno]

It's multiplier isn't amazing especially compared to the avengers or TDKR from last year as it sort of fell between both in OW.

However for a 3rd film in the series i suppose what more could you want?

Yeah, $400 million domestic, $800 million OS, $1.2 billion worldwide, fifth-highest grossing film in history, second-highest grossing superhero film and highest-grossing solo superhero film ever -- what more could anyone want?

 

[Pickle-El]

It's multiplier isn't amazing especially compared to the avengers or TDKR from last year as it sort of fell between both in OW.

However for a 3rd film in the series i suppose what more could you want?

The multiplier in the US isn't as high as those films, 2.3/2.4 is where I pegged after week 1 based on domestic reaction and that's where it will end up...but, when you open up to whatever it was the first 10 days (600 million WW or something crazy, 215 domestic?) It's so frontloaded, that the last quarter of the run doesn't really matter.

It made it's money in about 3 weeks around the globe. It really played like the last Harry Potter film. So much money the first 2 weeks, that the multiplier didn't really matter.

 

[ironman_rick]

Based on early buzz MOS might have a chance to break out and cross 400 M.

Catching Fire and Monsters University have a chance too.

Although I liked MOS a lot (the best superman movie....and I liked it better than TDKR too), I can't see it grossing $400 million.

Initially when I 1st saw it, I thought it will gross at least $350 DOM.....but hearing the boxoffice numbers coming in, I will have it at $310M to $320.

MU will have no problem getting to $300M....but it won't gross Toy Story 3 numbers.

CF will no doubt have higher international numbers...but I also can't see it grossing past $400M Domestic again. It will be the same with avengers 2. It will gross over a billion international...but might not get past $640M domestic.

Anyway CF will have major competition from the great thor, hobbits 2, jack ryan, anchorman 2 opening around the same time (give or take a month).


BTW IM3 is at 1,199,800 now. After this weekend, it should have finally hit $400M Domestic and over $805M International (5 highest international - taking over skyfall)

 

[ironman_rick]

IM3 is at $399,702,239 as of this week...... I guess we will hit $400M on Monday.

Damn. I never thought that the road to $400M will be this tough.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

800m and 650m for and ?

What if that is an underestimation?

 

[Ironfan72]

Although I liked MOS a lot (the best superman movie....and I liked it better than TDKR too), I can't see it grossing $400 million.

Initially when I 1st saw it, I thought it will gross at least $350 DOM.....but hearing the boxoffice numbers coming in, I will have it at $310M to $320.

MU will have no problem getting to $300M....but it won't gross Toy Story 3 numbers.

CF will no doubt have higher international numbers...but I also can't see it grossing past $400M Domestic again. It will be the same with avengers 2. It will gross over a billion international...but might not get past $640M domestic.

Anyway CF will have major competition from the great thor, hobbits 2, jack ryan, anchorman 2 opening around the same time (give or take a month).


BTW IM3 is at 1,199,800 now. After this weekend, it should have finally hit $400M Domestic and over $805M International (5 highest international - taking over skyfall)

I have not seen MoS and doubt I will, but my brother went yesterday and said it was good, but not great, felt the story telling was not very good, alot of plot holes, said it was not as good as IM3 but not by much, he liked IM3 minus the Mandarin issues.
I value his imput as he loves both Marvel and DC.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

I have not seen MoS and doubt I will, but my brother went yesterday and said it was good, but not great, felt the story telling was not very good, alot of plot holes, said it was not as good as IM3 but not by much, he liked IM3 minus the Mandarin issues.
I value his imput as he loves both Marvel and DC.

Considering, I keep seeing that (even from lovers of the movie) I'm assuming the action is REALLY good.

 

[Tony Stark]

Wow! IM3 might hang around longer than I thought thanks to the tank fest that was After Earth.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

So, what are the implications for future MCU movies?

 

[Ironfan72]

Considering, I keep seeing that (even from lovers of the movie) I'm assuming the action is REALLY good.

He said the action was really good, he just felt the film skipped around to much, going from past Clark to present, back again, it was disconcerting.
Problem I see is DC/Warner are seeing dollar signs and based off rumors are scrapping their plans to go the Marvel route and introduce DC characters before the Justice League movie, now they are rushing again according to rumors, that a 2nd Superman movie next year followed by a Justice League movie in 2015 to compete with Avengers 2, they are in such a hurry to catch up to Marvel that they will mess up their own plans, based solely on how one movie did, see how it works for them.

 

[Iceman]

So, what are the implications for future MCU movies?

They're probably thinking 'now is a good time to stop, right?' t:

 

[schiz0id]

Wow! IM3 might hang around longer than I thought thanks to the tank fest that was After Earth.

Checking the movietimes for my local mall cinema: and I see that IM3 still has 4 2D screenings for the entire day:


After Earth - 4 (2D)
Epic - 5 (2/2D,3/3D)
FF6 - 4 (2D)
Hangover III - 3 (2D)
Internship - 4 (2D)
Iron Man 3 - 4 (2D)
Man of Steel - 12 (6/2D,6/3D)
Now You See Me - 4 (2D)
The Purge - 5 (2D)
Star Trek 2 - 3 (2D)
This Is The End - 4 (2D)


So we see that IM3 indeed has legs and people still flock to see it.

 

[schiz0id]

What if that is an underestimation?

That was my own realistic projections based on whatever goodwill they have from The Avengers as well as the release date of each film. It would be good if I lowballed and the results are even higher though.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

So, what are the implications for future MCU movies?

3 movies a year from Disney/Marvel instead of 2.

Starting the year after Avengers 2.

 

[XtremelyBaneful]

i don't know why everyone was raving about how much the Avengers made, when there are plenty of other films that made $1 billion. It's not that far off.