Iron Man 3 The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread

[Kal-E]

OW 175-205m
DOM 500-620m
OS 700-1.B
This movie is gonna be the best third comic book movie off time.

 

[R_Hythlodeus]

OW 175-205m
DOM 500-620m
OS 700-1.B
This movie is gonna be the best third comic book movie off time.

that's not exactly hard.

 

[jacobed]

I dont think it'll beat either Batman. It won't cross a billion. Thus it'll be the 4th highest of all time. It'll do higher than Iron Man 2 but not much higher

 

[Mr. Dent]

It will beat TDK.

 

[Scarilian]

From watching the teaser trailer (Currently 50 million people have watched it - about double the amount that say 'The Avengers' trailer)

Iron man made about 600m
Iron man 2 made about 600m
Iron man 3 will probably make about double...

 

[cherokeesam]

I dont think it'll beat either Batman. It won't cross a billion. Thus it'll be the 4th highest of all time. It'll do higher than Iron Man 2 but not much higher

The hype numbers say otherwise. A lot of web prognosticators are already saying IM3 is a cinch to join the billion-dollar club this year. There's a *lot* more interest in this one than any previous Iron Man movie. Partly because of the Avenger boost, and partly because the trailers are so damn awesome and show that this will clearly be the best of the three solo franchise movies, by far.

 

[KangConquers]

I dont think it'll beat either Batman. It won't cross a billion. Thus it'll be the 4th highest of all time. It'll do higher than Iron Man 2 but not much higher

Avengers changed that game. In 2008 I insisted there was no way in hell TDK was going to beat Spider-Man's gross, based on Batman Begins. I was wrong.

These things aren't always as easy to predict. It won't get anywhere close to TDK's domestic total, but I'm expecting this to do much better in foreign markets. If it had been released today, TDK would've done much better in foreign markets than it did, anyway. It's just a different ball game than it was 5 years ago. $350 M domestic / 500 M foreign is a foregone conclusion for IM3, with $400 M/ 600 M being entirely in the realm of possibility.

 

[Mr. Dent]

The hype numbers say otherwise. A lot of web prognosticators are already saying IM3 is a cinch to join the billion-dollar club this year. There's a *lot* more interest in this one than any previous Iron Man movie. Partly because of the Avenger boost, and partly because the trailers are so damn awesome and show that this will clearly be the best of the three solo franchise movies, by far.

Way too early to say that. We haven't seen anything from Thor or Cap yet.

 

[Hawkingbird]

I don't think it will beat TDK, but I think it will come very close.

 

[Repulsor Blast]

I don't think it will beat TDK, but I think it will come very close.

you forget 3d will increase the $take by a lot.

 

[cherokeesam]

Way too early to say that. We haven't seen anything from Thor or Cap yet.

By "best of the three solo franchise movies," I meant the Iron Man franchise. I.e., IM3 will blow 1 & 2 out of the water.

 

[Tony Stark]

Internationally I think it will beat TDK and TDKR. Domestically, probably not, but I'm still thinking 400M or close to it.

 

[darkslayer101]

Internationally I think it will beat TDK and TDKR. Domestically, probably not, but I'm still thinking 400M or close to it.

yup marvel has a hold on international appeal... IM3 will easily reach 1billion thanks to avengers

 

[Pickle-El]

Internationally I think it will beat TDK and TDKR. Domestically, probably not, but I'm still thinking 400M or close to it.

It would be a huge jump to get to 1 billion based on the jump needed from IM2 and Avengers...also, the Star Trek competition domestically. Remember Star Trek was very well received at home, and we don't know just how big that jump will be internationally as well. These two will eat into each other on both ends.

IM2
Domestic 312 Million
Interntional 311 Million

Star Trek
Domestic 257 Million
International 127 Million

TDKR
Domestic 448 Million
International 632 Million

Even with the Avengers jump. IM3 would have to do about 350 Domestic and 650 International to catch TDKR Internationally and hit 1Billion (going by your international prediction)

That's a huge International bump. Over 100%.

I expect a Dark Knight-ish 1st weekend (140-160). IM did about 128 Million.

I am going to be play it safe 360 Domestic and about 440 International....as if 800 million is a lowball...

 

[ctsketch]

I think you are underestimating the avengers bump, not only was iron man the most popular to begin with... and this is a threequel but also it is the first post avengers movie which brought in a lot of new fans!

 

[Tony Stark]

Star Trek has no international audience, I'm not worried about that.

There doesn't need to be a bump, because the bump came with Avengers. IM3 only needs to hold a decent percentage of Avenger's audience to take it to 350-440M. Keeping 600-700M of Avengers international audience will be pretty simple.

 

[Kal-E]

People are under estimating this baby.

 

[Moridin]

Even with the Avengers jump. IM3 would have to do about 350 Domestic and 650 International to catch TDKR Internationally and hit 1Billion (going by your international prediction)

That's a huge International bump. Over 100%.

I expect a Dark Knight-ish 1st weekend (140-160). IM did about 128 Million.

I am going to be play it safe 360 Domestic and about 440 International....as if 800 million is a lowball...

What you aren't taking into account is IM2 wasn't in 3D. Hitting ~$360m US is just IM2 attendence + 3D. I think adding an Avengers boost to that will bring it to $400m+.

It's got a 2 week jump on Trek, 3 weeks on Hangover 3 & Fast 6. Internationally IM3 is out a week earlier still.

Hitting $500m OS should be feasible, so I'll call $900m total for now, but I'm more & more thinking this could hit 1bn.

 

[cherokeesam]

What you aren't taking into account is IM2 wasn't in 3D. Hitting ~$360m US is just IM2 attendence + 3D. I think adding an Avengers boost to that will bring it to $400m+.

It's got a 2 week jump on Trek, 3 weeks on Hangover 3 & Fast 6. Internationally IM3 is out a week earlier still.

Hitting $500m OS should be feasible, so I'll call $900m total for now, but I'm more & more thinking this could hit 1bn.

Why are people even mentioning Star Trek, Hangover, and F'n'F in the same breath as Iron Man??? Both IM1 and IM2 had *all* the movies in those franchises beat years ago, and there is no way in hell IM3 is going to make less than its predecessors.

2013 is a three-film race, with IM3, MOS, and TH:TDOS jostling for the top spot on the podium. Everyone else is just competing for fourth place.

 

[spideymouse]

Why are people even mentioning Star Trek, Hangover, and F'n'F in the same breath as Iron Man??? Both IM1 and IM2 had *all* the movies in those franchises beat years ago, and there is no way in hell IM3 is going to make less than its predecessors.

2013 is a three-film race, with IM3, MOS, and TH:TDOS jostling for the top spot on the podium. Everyone else is just competing for fourth place.

They're mentioning those films because theoretically their subsequent releases in May might take away from Iron Man 3's total box office (as opposed to how Avengers and TDK/TDKR were met with little to no serious competition in theaters for about a month after each of their own releases). No one is saying that IM3 won't beat those movies, but it isn't out of the question to argue that they could draw moviegoers from repeat viewings of IM3.

 

[Tony Stark]

I think everyone is in agreement that this won't do Avengers business. What we are saying is that this will do much better than IM2, partially because of 3D boost, but also because there doesn't have to be an audience bumb from IM2, that bump already happened with Avengers. IM3 only needs to hold a fair percentage of viewers from Avengers.

 

[Tony Stark]

And I should note when Avengers came out last year, most people on this site and several in the box office media predicted that Avengers would not break Harry Potters record. Most had it 150-155, they were off by 60 million dollars.

 

[Moridin]

Why are people even mentioning Star Trek, Hangover, and F'n'F in the same breath as Iron Man??? Both IM1 and IM2 had *all* the movies in those franchises beat years ago, and there is no way in hell IM3 is going to make less than its predecessors.

Star Trek '09 made $257m US / $128m WW, it was very well recieved and will likely have built on that audience since then.

The Hangover made $277m US/ $467WW
TH2 made $254m US/ $581 WW (IM1 numbers), wasn't nearly as well recieved as the first but TH3 is billed as the last in the series & breaks the formula of the first two.

Fast 5 made $210m US /$624m WW in 2011. That's IM2 numbers. Fast 6 will be just as big if not bigger.

So yeah, this isn't like last year where the competition was Dark Shadows & Battleship.

2013 is a three-film race, with IM3, MOS, and TH:TDOS jostling for the top spot on the podium. Everyone else is just competing for fourth place.

It's a two horse race between IM3 & DoS.

I doubt MoS will come anywhere close to a billion, I'd say it's doing great if it hits about $650m WW & could very well be beaten out by films like Hungers Games 2, Despicable Me 2, Monsters Uni, maybe even Thor 2.

 

[Tony Stark]

It's a two horse race between IM3 & DoS.

I agree with this. Right now I don't see any other potential films of that magnitude, unless catching fire's international audience explodes from hunger games.

 

[ThePowerCosmic]

I think MoS will outgross DoS.