Age of Extinction Transformers 4 is going to be AWESOME. - Part 2

[def28]

Only 18 films have crossed the billion mark. It ain't easy to get. No matter how one wants to break it down.

 

[Marvin]

Only 18 films have crossed the billion mark. It ain't easy to get. No matter how one wants to break it down.

Curious how many of those were 'part 4' and or reboots(however soft).

 

[def28]

Yeah, think Potter and Pirates are the only ones up there that fit the bill.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

^Just goes to show how well TF4 is really doing, think it close to $900 million WW at the moment.

 

[Fallen Angel]

You know I watched this for the second time today and i've realised I care more about the main character here (Cade) then I ever did for Sam. This is a widow looking to make a good enough life for him and his daughter. there are many folks all across the planet who could relate to that.

 

[Lord]

Actualy, The Hobbit, Star Wars Episode I and Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides were all fourth instalments in a film series, Skyfall and Harry Potter 8 were all much farther numbers than 4, and then you also have to consider the 3rd films that were supposed to close trilogies, instead of having a 4th film, being that the 4th film would also joing the Billion club if it had been made, like Iron Man 3, The Dark Knight Rises and Toy Story 3.

Avengers was also half a new property, and half the 6th instalment in a successful mega franchise.

 

[Marvin]

Actualy, The Hobbit, Star Wars Episode I and Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides were all fourth instalments in a film series, Skyfall and Harry Potter 8 were all much farther numbers than 4, and then you also have to consider the 3rd films that were supposed to close trilogies, instead of having a 4th film, being that the 4th film would also joing the Billion club if it had been made, like Iron Man 3, The Dark Knight Rises and Toy Story 3.

Avengers was also half a new property, and half the 6th instalment in a successful mega franchise.

All those with the exception of Pirates have alot more inherent momentum than TF ever did, I feel it speaks to the real success paramount has mustered inside of this trilogy. Pirates has always been the closest equal in terms of doing similar and starting from part one. Also, hobbit and ep one are prequels....
The thing about 'part 4' is that is sets off things after a trilogy tends to wrap. Part 5 has a far easier time than part four in theory because part four did the leg work to get the ga back involved(see fast 4-5).

As for the marvel stuff...I don't get what people think those things are. Either they are all sequels in some big franchise and that circumstance should be accounted for(Thor being a sequel to Ironman as opposed to a launcher), or they are infact seen as individuals things. Cap2 measured as a sequel to Cap1 vs it being measured as a sequel to two of the biggest films ever...

 

[def28]

As for the marvel stuff...I don't get what people think those things are. Either they are all sequels in some big franchise and that circumstance should be accounted for(Thor being a sequel to Ironman as opposed to a launcher), or they are infact seen as individuals things. Cap2 measured as a sequel to Cap1 vs it being measured as a sequel to two of the biggest films ever...

Yeah, The Avengers switches that and amde everything a different beast imo, a combination of previous franchises. Not many films can be in that same category. If GI Joe and Transformers crossed I'd consider that in the same league.

Pirates right now is probably the best comparison.

 

[Lord]

But the thing is, there aren't many number 4 in there because even many successful franchises don't go that far, many have been concluding as trilogies, and after that go into Prequel Territory or reboot, so it's not realy a fair comparison, i can't realy remember many 4th entries that don't reach the Billion mark, but that are sequels to films that did.

We also have to take into account that a film can more easily reach a Billion worldwide nowadays, not only due to inflation, but also because of the huge boost brought by 3D and IMAX screenings, so it's obvious that you won't have many films in that group that can compare, but every year we're now getting in least one or two billion grossers.

Marvel Cinematic Universe is a Mega-franchise, being a shared universe that features various film franchises, with The Avengers at the center. No, Thor would not be considered a Sequel at all, at most it would be a Spin-off to Iron Man 2, but they're realy their out film series, with The Avengers being the only exception that is equaly important to the Iron Man film series as the other 3 are.

 

[def28]

We also have to take into account that a film can more easily reach a Billion worldwide nowadays, not only due to inflation, but also because of the huge boost brought by 3D and IMAX screenings, so it's obvious that you won't have many films in that group that can compare, but every year we're now getting in least one or two billion grossers.

More Easily? Sure I guess. Easy to do regardless? No way. Still very difficult.

 

[Lord]

More Easily? Sure I guess. Easy to do regardless? No way. Still very difficult.

Easy to do regardless what? That's why i mentioned the factors that make it possible, it's why only 3 of the 18 Billion grossers are from before 2000, two of them only got in that spot due to their 3D re-release.

Billion's obviously still a difficult number to reach, but it's not the type of feat it used to be, and what Transformers 4 is doing may still be impressive, but nowadays when a franchise is realy popular, this result at the box office isn't that uncommon, is there even a film series that had a fourth instalment that did not reach a Billion Dollars, but had a previous instalment that did? I don't see any, but i do see various fourth instalments, even if some of them are Prequels to a previous trilogy.

 

[def28]

.Billion's obviously still a difficult number to reach, but it's not the type of feat it used to be, and what Transformers 4 is doing may still be impressive, but nowadays when a franchise is realy popular, this result at the box office isn't that uncommon, is there even a film series that had a fourth instalment that did not reach a Billion Dollars, but had a previous instalment that did?

There's a ton of franchises that have had 4 films (of any sort) that have not reached a billion. Too many to name. It's easier to name the ones that have. An example this year of ones that have not would be X-Men. Spidey if you want to count reboots.

Avengers, Potter, Pirates, LOTR and Star Wars are the only series past. Anything else not there. There's 4 or 5. You have to be king **** to get there.

The main point here is you have to be friggen huge. Which all those frnachises are.

 

[Lord]

What part of

is there even a film series that had a fourth instalment that did not reach a Billion Dollars, but had a previous instalment that did?

Did you not understand? It's not fair to mention franchises that didn't reach a billion in their 4th instalment when their previous films did not do so either, that's been one of the main points of the discussion, if you have 3 consecutive movies making an average of 400 million or so, it's obviously not fair to compare with a trilogy that made some 800 million or more in average and already had a Billion grosser.

i can't realy remember many 4th entries that don't reach the Billion mark, but that are sequels to films that did.

 

[def28]

What part of



Did you not understand? It's not fair to mention franchises that didn't reach a billion in their 4th instalment when their previous films did not do so either, that's been one of the main points of the discussion, if you have 3 consecutive movies making an average of 400 million or so, it's obviously not fair to compare with a trilogy that made some 800 million or more in average and already had a Billion grosser.

Probably The last part as I did not read it correctly haha. But IM a bit confused on what your looking for. A franchise that increased it's number from 3 to 4? Or lost money from 3 to 4?

 

[Lord]

Didn't realy think well about Iron Man 3, but it did increase since the previous instalments, i would be counting films reached a billion and are part of an already set franchise, in this case we're expecialy counting 4th films where a previous instalment reached the Billion club.

Going back to Transformers, i would say that the 4th film doing so well shouldn't come as much of a surprise, being the follow up to a film that grossed one billion and 100 million, franchises nowadays seem to not drop their results, like they used to decades ago. They may have changed the human characters, but the face of the franchise (Optimus Prime) is still there, it's very similar with Pirates of the Caribbean 4, Will and Elizabeth were no longer involved, and even much of the colorful secondary cast disappeared with the exception of Barbossa and Guibbs, but with TF 4 it seems like the replacements were more successful than with Pirates, where we'll probably never see the priest & Mermaid, that dude played by the same actor who plays Alcapone in Boardwalk Empire, or Angelica again, while Wahlberg seems to be well liked by old fans and to be returning.

This isn't the same case as what happened with the Spider-Man franchise, where they decided to completely reboot and droped a continuity much of the General Audience had spent their time and money on, at a time the films were still realy popular.

 

[def28]

I agree, same thing mostly as Pirates and yeah not that big of a surprise with Transformers, I still do not get why some people are shocked like this is the first time it's done well.

I believe Transformers will be the 5th series to have 2 films past the billion mark. Only Marvel (IM3, Avengers), Pirates, Batman and LOTR share that. Pretty impressive.

 

[Lord]

I also don't get why some think the franchise is in trouble and that the studio will soon need to reboot or keep hiring Michael Bay, it pretty much sells itself, i'dd be shocked if they in least didn't finish this new trilogy they are setting. G.I.Joe's what probably needs a crossover with TF in order to survive.

At this rate i'm actualy expecting Transformers 6 to be the biggest one in the series, even if 4 and 5 don't reach Dark of the Moon numbers, they'll probably make sure TF 6 does it.

In other words, fans of this film series don't need to worry, only domesticaly is it droping, this is Paramount's biggest card, and the only film series they have right now that can reach the Billion number if i'm not mistaken, so they won't stop making these films for as long as they can, it's not like with Disney where they can stop making Pirates of the Caribbean films anytime they want without suffering many consequences.

 

[Marvin]

But the thing is, there aren't many number 4 in there because even many successful franchises don't go that far, many have been concluding as trilogies, and after that go into Prequel Territory or reboot, so it's not realy a fair comparison, i can't realy remember many 4th entries that don't reach the Billion mark, but that are sequels to films that did.

We also have to take into account that a film can more easily reach a Billion worldwide nowadays, not only due to inflation, but also because of the huge boost brought by 3D and IMAX screenings, so it's obvious that you won't have many films in that group that can compare, but every year we're now getting in least one or two billion grossers.

You're right, there aren't that many 3rd sequels to billion dollar films. This actually speaks to the rare and unique success and consistency of the franchise more than it does this actual forth film in particular.

I'm sure it owes alot to the directors prior work and success in this material. Inversely, how much more domestically would this same film have stood to make had it been the first sequel and not the fatiguing 4th..I digress here, you won't find many films in the exact same position this one was in, you will find things like Fast & Furious or even ASM.. Pirates (and no doubt Toy Story 4) is probably the only other directly comparable thing. It's small company but that's no doubt for a reason.

As easier as it is to reach a billion these days, there is the matter than only one film has and may end up doing so this year. Standards change yes but they are still relative to the new landscape. It's not like there was only one IMAX 3D film this year...

Marvel Cinematic Universe is a Mega-franchise, being a shared universe that features various film franchises, with The Avengers at the center. No, Thor would not be considered a Sequel at all, at most it would be a Spin-off to Iron Man 2, but they're realy their out film series...

If that's truly what it is, it's quite the advantage each film has, something rarely seen anywhere else. For example it puts into question just what the elements are that are allowing TWS to both compete with this new xmen film but also surpass the ASM films so forth(MOS domestically). Or just what the expectations should actually be on Guardians...Turtles isn't some spin off to Avengers, it's simply a reboot to a consistently under performing thing etc.

Just what was IM3 in this circumstance? Surely not the same circumstance as Spidey 3 or even TDKR.

 

[Lord]

They have an advantage with each film, but that's part of the strategy, like when you see a spin-off to an already extablished brand, it's not exactly cheating, Iron Man 3 has the huge help of following on The Avengers, no doubt, but let's not forget that the previous 2 films didn't get a 3D or IMAX release, even without Avengers i think that film would have made in least 800 million.

You mention Toy Story 4, i trust you meant the 3rd one, because right now it seems like that will remain a Trilogy.

I'm not 100% sure, but with inflation and the help of 3D and IMAX, Harry Potter 4 would have most likely made a Billion too, though it's in a completely different situation, Pirates 4 is truly the only one that can realy compare due to its very similar situation, and Paramount will surely not let the Transformers franchise become irrelevant.

Any guess at what they'll do with Transformers 5?

 

[Marvin]

I don't think any thing discussed here could be considered 'cheating'. I was just alluding to the frame of reference people should apply when looking at context and such. For example, when I read that the marvel franchise is the most successful yet, the statement itself is full of asterisk after asterisk. It is an interesting point that the prior two IM films did their thing without 3D,(strong domestics), but at the same time it really begs the question of what IM3 would have done had it simply followed IM2 looking at the way things were going(and the film in question), maybe/probably more due to 3D but then again, it's not like cap and thor are breaking marvel records with 3D.

I suppose I mean if a toy story 4 is made, i heard rumors they were thinking about it. An interesting thought being that Kids face fatigue in a very different way adults do, plus there is always 'more' new kids to exploit. I think this kinda explains some of the fox animated success.

As for TF5,
I'm pretty Sure Bay isn't directing another one but his name will be all over it. Other than that and Whalberg, I'm not sure what they will do. I suppose they will have 'more china' somehow otherwise face losing out on some of that market. I don't see them taking humans off of earth, that would be a good way to stop doing what's working.
Predicting the box office on that film will be as tricky and full of variables as TF4 has proven to be imo. Losing Shia no doubt made an impact on the brand going into four but 'sequels' due tend to make more than 'launchers'...
/ramble.

 

[def28]

Yeah, much like TMNT Bay's name will be all over the franchise when he's gone as Director.

 

[DA_Champion]

Lord,

My absence of absolute confidence in the franchise' future is due to the weaker reception and performance of this 4th film. It's down worldwide and will remain down from the third entry in spite of spectacular growth in one specific market (China). In particular, it will have dropped ~30% in the United States + Canada.

They will also have a hard time finding a new director. It's not straightforward to replicate what Bay does well.

 

[Lord]

Bay has a long list of "aprentices", one of them is making TMNT, i think reception hurts more in the USA than anywhere else, well, it did convince me to not go watch it in the Cinemas, but most of the people i see prefer to make up their oun judgement.

I'm quite sure that they can make the market grow again for as long as they try doing different things, the 3rd film had the major draw of a very impressive city battle and being a "conclusion", promising to be the biggest and most serious of all of them, the 4th film however felt a bit more like a rehash in some places, the major draw were the Dinobots, but they aparently weren't even there for much of the movie.

It's a loose comparison, but if sites like Rotten Tomatoes reflect the opinion of the film in the USA, then theoreticaly, if they had a Director who could keep up with the past action but also bring more heart into the plot and characters, it would make more money there. Some places in Europe are also starting to stop going to the Cinema due to Torrent downloading whatever they want for free, even though they usualy can't while a film is still in the theaters.

Dark of the Moon had some impressive teasers, if you can once again do something that replicates that "wow factor", the franchise will keep going strong for some more years, hell, they had the Dinobots to do that, but it seems like they were mostly wasted. Studios might not want to hear this, but a space battle would probably look very atractive to a lot of people if done right.

 

[Marvin]

Lord,

My absence of absolute confidence in the franchise' future is due to the weaker reception and performance of this 4th film. It's down worldwide and will remain down from the third entry in spite of spectacular growth in one specific market (China). In particular, it will have dropped ~30% in the United States + Canada.

They will also have a hard time finding a new director. It's not straightforward to replicate what Bay does well.

Which alludes to the point of what is the predicted and or historical trend for a forth installment with a new cast.
As well as what that means going into it's own sequel. That is, part 4's have elements of starting from scratch, both in terms of material as well built in reception. Ignoring all the reasons for ASM2's performance, it was projected to do far better than the prior one and the prior one was predicted to do worse than it's own prior, both for obvious reasons.

I personally find that much of the way this film was received(actually winning over some many fans) including losing some of it's domestic following, really speaks to just what and why the previous films connected so well. Maybe people liked the Shia stuff, maybe the liked the US military stuff, maybe they actually miss Simmons etc..
My buddy was telling me that he very much missed the romcom ShiaFox stuff from the first film. Then again he's a CW junkie. Still, that stuff was very much gone and maybe this new 'direction' and it's reception speak to that.

 

[roach]

The overseas cume after five frames is now $730M for a worldwide total of $966.35M. Domestically, TAOE had a three-day of $4.6M on about 1/6 of the screens.