Wonder Woman Box Office Speculation Thread

[DarthSkywalker]

Did she say all 150M+ movies are off by 30-40M? I skimmed through the pages. She said she mentioned Logan, SS, Deadpool, JW etc.

My point would be MOS tracked at 100M by variety (or others) late and scored 116-128M, SS was at 98M before making 133M with crap reviews, Deadpool was at 55M and made 130M+, BvS was at 120-140 and it got 166M with poor reviews, JW had under 100M and made 200M.

So it's possible for WW to grow from early track of 65M (boxoffice.com at 83M) and grow quite a bit from there. The examples I used included 3 DCEU movies, WW's the 4th DCEU film.

I don't think you read the post:

We can't control projections. I've seen the early projections they are always wrong with the final numbers come out. They are almost always 30-40 million off with these big films.

What we can control is how many tickets we buy and encourage others to buy. I'd focus on that.

I stated movies making over 150m are hard to track and project. Tracking is difficult for these movies because it is hard to come up with how much of a difference walk up business is going to be. The Avengers is a great example of this, because the pre-sales were really strong, but the walk up business was crazy.

The Force Awakens has everything ranging from 220m to 285m.

I also stated the number will probably go up for WW.

This is also a good time to say that tracking and projections are two different things. Tracking is more or less straight math, projections is estimates based on multiple things, including tracking.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Dude, I said that they are almost always off in their predictions. I used a 30-40 million range to cover for the Deadpools and the Suicide Squad types not to mean that every single one were off by that much. It was a bit of hyperbole. No one is dismissing anything just saying they are just projections that aren't always right.

Tracking is not a prediction. Projections are. I showed you a perfect example of how this is wrong with Logan, GotG V2, Lego Batman, Power Rangers, and The Fate and the Furious. Each movie was within 14m on the site I posted, and that was 6-8 weeks out for each movie.

So how is this almost always off for big movies?

 

[Wanda Detroit]

Tracking is not a prediction. Projections are. I showed you a perfect example of how this is wrong with Logan, GotG V2, Lego Batman, Power Rangers, and The Fate and the Furious. Each movie was within 14m on the site I posted, and that was 6-8 weeks out for each movie.

So how is this almost always off for big movies?

I don't even know what you are even talking about anymore and I feel like we talking about two different things. And now it's getting in to semantics. Whatever

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I don't even know what you are even talking about anymore and I feel like we talking about two different things. And now it's getting in to semantics. Whatever

No these aren't semantics. I am using what you posted. Again, this is what you wrote:

We can't control projections. I've seen the early projections they are always wrong with the final numbers come out. They are almost always 30-40 million off with these big films.

What we can control is how many tickets we buy and encourage others to buy. I'd focus on that.

Almost always isn't a few movies. That is almost all of them.

 

[Greenlite]

I don't think you read the post:



I stated movies making over 150m are hard to track and project. Tracking is difficult for these movies because it is hard to come up with how much of a difference walk up business is going to be. The Avengers is a great example of this, because the pre-sales were really strong, but the walk up business was crazy.

The Force Awakens has everything ranging from 220m to 285m.

I also stated the number will probably go up for WW.

This is also a good time to say that tracking and projections are two different things. Tracking is more or less straight math, projections is estimates based on multiple things, including tracking.

Ya Wanda could have said "I've seen the early projections some of them are wrong with the final numbers come out. Some of them are 30-40 million off with these big films."

But whatever, I know what she meant, let's just crucify her

Good to know technical stuff like projections include tracking so they correlate with each other.

Your top estimate of 120M+ isn't that far off my shoot for the moon estimate of 135M, it's just that our communication is on a different wavelength...and you keep thinking I think/said JW/DP examples applies for ALL films for some reason...

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Ya Wanda could have said "I've seen the early projections some of them are wrong with the final numbers come out. Some of them are 30-40 million off with these big films."

But whatever, I know what she meant, let's just crucify her

Good to know technical stuff like projections include tracking so they correlate with each other.

Your top estimate of 120M+ isn't that far off my shoot for the moon estimate of 135M, it's just that our communication is on a different wavelength...and you keep thinking I think/said JW/DP examples applies for ALL films for some reason...

She doubled down later by repeating it.

I think WW is a hard one to track and project, made all the more difficult by how frontloaded DCEU movies have been so far. But if this movie makes 150m, I wouldn't be surprised one bit. Outside of a poor song choice in the last trailer, I think the movie has been marketed very well. It looks good and there is clearly a craving for this movie.

 

[Greenlite]

She doubled down later by repeating it.

I think WW is a hard one to track and project, made all the more difficult by how frontloaded DCEU movies have been so far. But if this movie makes 150m, I wouldn't be surprised one bit. Outside of a poor song choice in the last trailer, I think the movie has been marketed very well. It looks good and there is clearly a craving for this movie.

I think WB might do a free ticket or early preview type of special again like they did with MOS and SS, which would bump up the b.o. again. Do you think there's a narrative that want this to succeed, or part of the reason the female demo want to see this is to support it and send a message? Just a gut feeling that there's a "girl-power" feel brewing for this thing

PS I think 150-160M is possible but that'd require a Avengers/Deadpool/JW type phenomenon

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I think WB might do a free ticket or early preview type of special again like they did with MOS and SS, which would bump up the b.o. again. Do you think there's a narrative that want this to succeed, or part of the reason the female demo want to see this is to support it and send a message? Just a gut feeling that there's a "girl-power" feel brewing for this thing

PS I think 150-160M is possible but that'd require a Avengers/Deadpool/JW type phenomenon

I think if there is any "girl-power" sentiment, it will perhaps be seen in reviews. Bloggers seem really defensive about this movie.

If women really turn out for this, i can see it being for similar reason many turn out for other female led blockbusters. It simply speaks to them in a way most blockbusters cannot. As a male, I couldn't explain such a thing. 90% of blockbusters feel like they are trying to recruit me.

 

[Greenlite]

I think if there is any "girl-power" sentiment, it will perhaps be seen in reviews. Bloggers seem really defensive about this movie.

If women really turn out for this, i can see it being for similar reason many turn out for other female led blockbusters. It simply speaks to them in a way most blockbusters cannot. As a male, I couldn't explain such a thing. 90% of blockbusters feel like they are trying to recruit me.

defensive as in defending the movie?

Most of the female driven films have under 50M OW, like those rom-com or drama ones, but if that demo shows up that'd still be quite a large portion of the b.o. I noticed the last few trailers have been more action orientated, but they did show some character driven stuff at wondercon, I guess WB could release those late in the game to target the mainstream female demo..

 

[DarthSkywalker]

defensive as in defending the movie?

Most of the female driven films have under 50M OW, like those rom-com or drama ones, but if that demo shows up that'd still be quite a large portion of the b.o. I noticed the last few trailers have been more action orientated, but they did show some character driven stuff at wondercon, I guess WB could release those late in the game to target the mainstream female demo..

Yeah. I think one of the reasons they marketing thing has come up is if this movie somehow "failed" they want a ready made excuse.

Most female driven movies aren't blockbusters. But if you look at stuff like the Hunger Games, Rogue One, The Force Awakens, Twilight, Beauty and the Beast, and others, they do rather well for themselves. They probably have a better hit ratio.

 

[JtheDreamer]

We're not talking about reception, we're talking about WW exceeding expectations at the BO like Deadpool, which isn't far fetched.

At the clip Deadpool did - yes it's far fetched, ESPECIALLY in lieu of the budget of Deadpool.

Barring a miracle for WW, it's dishonest to even compare the two movies in terms of BO right now.

 

[JtheDreamer]

Yeah. I think one of the reasons they marketing thing has come up is if this movie somehow "failed" they want a ready made excuse.

Bingo was his name-o.

 

[brandeezy89]

At the clip Deadpool did - yes it's far fetched, ESPECIALLY in lieu of the budget of Deadpool.

Barring a miracle for WW, it's dishonest to even compare the two movies in terms of BO right now.

I'm not talking about budgets and what not, i'm talking about early tracking compared to the actual numbers.

Deadpool was tracking 55-60M OW and ended up making 132M 3 weeks later.

WW has a shot of doing the same, not the exact numbers but 100M+

 

[UncleSam1776]

I'm not talking about budgets and what not, i'm talking about early tracking compared to the actual numbers.

Deadpool was tracking 55-60M OW and ended up making 132M 3 weeks later.

WW has a shot of doing the same, not the exact numbers but 100M+

This is how bad the tracking was for Deadpool. This is what Deadline reported 3 days before its release date.

As such look for 20th Century Fox’s R-Rated Marvel film Deadpool to shoot a Friday through Monday take between $60M-$65M at 3,557 theaters. Thursday shows start at 7PM.

 

[Micromind]

I'm not talking about budgets and what not, i'm talking about early tracking compared to the actual numbers.

Deadpool was tracking 55-60M OW and ended up making 132M 3 weeks later.

WW has a shot of doing the same, not the exact numbers but 100M+

Thing is, WW has immense competition in week 2, 3, 4 of it's release, wom cannot help you if the competition takes away the theater screens. Which is why a big opening is needed here, if there ever was a case to a movie to be heavily front loaded, it is here, I don't care if the movie falls by 65 to 70 % in it's second week.

 

[Micromind]

Let's talk a bit about the competition Wonder Woman would be facing in theaters in May (end) - June 2017.

26 May, 2017 - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales.

2 June, 2017 Wonder Woman, Captain Underpants.

9 June, 2017 The Mummy,

16 June, 2017 Cars 3.

23 June, 2017 Transformers: The Last Knight.

30 June, 2017 Despicable Me 3

There's enough competition present for WW movie. It needs a huge Opening.

 

[Greenlite]

My post a while back

http://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-the-mummy/

Release dates
25/5 Baywatch 35M/42M/4 day
26/5 Pirates 61M/75M/4 day
2/6 Cap Undie 24M
2/6 WW 83M
9/6 The Mummy 50M

Guessing
Baywatch OW 50M/3 day, 2nd W 23M, 3rd W 11M
Pirates OW 80M/3 day, 2nd W 36M, 3rd 20M
WW OW 110M deals with Pirates 36M, CU 30M, BW 23M
WW 2nd W ?39-44M deals with TM 65M, Pirates 20M, CU 15M, BW 11M

Cons: 2nd WK TM 65M, Pirates/CU/BW~46M = 111M+ comp, Cars 3rd WK (Cars 2 demo=53 Male/36% of age 25 Under = < 11 y/o)
Pros: compared to MOS 2nd WK MU 82M+WWZ 66M=148M, plus Now you see me+This is the end 21M = 169M, rest of the meaningful movies ~15M+ (can count or ignore). Main comp Pirates dying down, TM is more adult/horror than family friendly, Cars is more for boys than girls, last one OW was 66M, might be less for this one).

Update 12/5/17
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/ne...n-tell-no-tales-tracking-90m-us-debut-1000105

Baywtach 37-40M (5-day debut), Pirates tracking at 90M over 4 days, b.o.com last week bumped it up to 84M/days, Cars 3@49M, TF @ 79M

 

[Bruce Malone]

I'm not talking about budgets and what not, i'm talking about early tracking compared to the actual numbers.

Deadpool was tracking 55-60M OW and ended up making 132M 3 weeks later.

WW has a shot of doing the same, not the exact numbers but 100M+

Tracking was wrong for Deadpool because nobody knew how to track the type of movie it was.

A 3rd rate comic book character starring an at the time 2nd rate actor with a relatively small budget that was for some reason all-over the interwebs. Some analysts probably thought Deapool would be another Snakes on a Plane.

WW is a much more traditional film with a more traditional less viral based marketing, so its tracking shouldn't be that far off. Or not nearly as much as it was for DP.

 

[idiot09]

Dont give a **** about tracking/projections, as that changes all the time and they often lowball it. Ive heard these "predictions" range from 60M-110M.

This is how I see it for the OW regardless of all the predictions.

less than 70M : Disappointing. Would be Thor/Cap 1 territory so not too bad but not great either.

$75-100M : Great. A very healthy OW for a solo movie with female lead in a very packed month.

$100M + : Absolutely brilliant.

 

[Chesterfield]

The competition is really going to hurt this movie. What a sucky release date.

 

[Wonder89]

https://www.flickeringmyth.com/2017...sappointing-wonder-woman-box-office-tracking/

 

[morningmimosa]

https://www.flickeringmyth.com/2017...sappointing-wonder-woman-box-office-tracking/

So he's saying that a 83 mio OW is disastrous? What a turd of article.

 

[Micromind]

https://www.flickeringmyth.com/2017...sappointing-wonder-woman-box-office-tracking/

83 mil opening (if that happens) is not disappointing at all, now 60 mil. opening is.

Click bait article using negativity to draw in people, I'm not going to click on that and give him Internet traffic.

 

[mclay18]

The competition is really going to hurt this movie. What a sucky release date.

Having WW open against Transformers: The Last Knight as it was originally scheduled on June 23, and then Despicable Me 3 the week after would be tantamount to box office suicide.

The POTC franchise has been on a downward trend (especially the six-year gap between the fourth and fifth films). It might have a big opening, but a lot of Memorial Day openings are typically very frontloaded, i.e. the X-Men films. The Mummy is quite frankly a wild card, it could be a dud or sleeper hit (it doesn't look that good IMO). Cars 3 is aimed at a very different audience.

WW is better positioned on June 2.

 

[Iceman]

Having WW open against Transformers: The Last Knight as it was originally scheduled on June 23, and then Despicable Me 3 the week after would be tantamount to box office suicide.

Yep that would have been a disaster.