🇬🇧 Discussion: UK Politics

[Mandon Knight]

Thankfully, as ever, Lagarde tells it like it is.....

No-deal Brexit will inflict 'substantial costs' on UK economy, warns IMF

 

[Lilbaz]

Thankfully, as ever, Lagarde tells it like it is.....

No-deal Brexit will inflict 'substantial costs' on UK economy, warns IMF

Yep economy will slow but sharp increase in wages. So big business might make less profit but workers will have more money in their pocket. Coupled with a drop in house prices and rents that doesn't sound too bad for the average worker.

 

[Sithborg]

You don't understand how businesses work, do you?

 

[Lilbaz]

You don't understand how businesses work, do you?

I know that wages have stagnated and that workers rights have been eroded over the last 20 years while profits have increased massively as has inequality as those at the top receive most benefits. I know that economists have been "baffled" why the uk hasn't seen wage growth while reaching almost full employment. Forgetting the fact that we are nowhere near full employment with 600,000 immigrants coming to the country every year.

The 'conundrum' at the heart of the British economy is getting worse — and economists are baffled

 

[Sithborg]

Immigrants aren't why worker's rights have eroded.

 

[Lilbaz]

Immigrants aren't why worker's rights have eroded.

Not 100% but they haven't helped the situation. At the moment competition for low skilled workers is very high as employers can just get workers from eastern european countries to fill the roles. Good for them but if you have a mortgage and a couple of kids you cannot compete with the prices they are willing to work. Especially when they are living 5/6 to a room.

 

[Mandon Knight]

I know that wages have stagnated and that workers rights have been eroded over the last 20 years while profits have increased massively as has inequality as those at the top receive most benefits. I know that economists have been "baffled" why the uk hasn't seen wage growth while reaching almost full employment. Forgetting the fact that we are nowhere near full employment with 600,000 immigrants coming to the country every year.

The 'conundrum' at the heart of the British economy is getting worse — and economists are baffled

'Full employment' exists because this government have been able to screw stats to suit their policy by making official anyone working 16 hours or more, is regarded as full time employment, so someone working 17 hours a week in terms of official unemployment / employment stats is seen to be working full time, which, whilst not solely at play in amongst what and how figures are being miss-interrupted but goes a hell of way towards hitting a false 'full employment' picture.

 

[Lilbaz]

'Full employment' exists because this government have been able to screw stats to suit their policy by making official anyone working 16 hours or more, is regarded as full time employment, so someone working 17 hours a week in terms of official unemployment / employment stats is seen to be working full time, which, whilst not solely at play in amongst what and how figures are being miss-interrupted but goes a hell of way towards hitting a false 'full employment' picture.

So the economic figures are being scewed? 0 hour contracts etc... are fudging the figures?

 

[Mandon Knight]

This government refuses to even accept 0 hr contracts are a matter of course.

 

[Lilbaz]

This government refuses to even accept 0 hr contracts are a matter of course.

Maybe now. They don't have to be.

Don't get me wrong the eu working time directive was one of the best laws introduced, yet the british government vetoed much of it. 99% of the problems are of our governments making. But people felt we needed to take back control.

Have we? Not as much as i would like, but as least the power will be decentralised and we have more representation.

My father was an immigrant, my mothers parents were immigrants, my wife is an immigrant. Immigration is a benefit as long as it is controlled. We are seeing across europe the problems and nations shifting further to the right. There has to be middle ground and time allowed for integration. Because people do not like their lives and communities changed with no say. Especially when it hurts.

 

[kit1982]

Yep economy will slow but sharp increase in wages. So big business might make less profit but workers will have more money in their pocket. Coupled with a drop in house prices and rents that doesn't sound too bad for the average worker.

Sorry mate don't understand how rents will drop? Surely landlords will just put the extra costs they'll incur on the Tennant's? And surely it'll be harder to borrow as well?

By all means mate if i'm completely barking up the wrong tree, put me right. I voted remain but I'm more than happy to be wrong, with a sprog on the way I'm desperate to be wrong!

 

[Lilbaz]

Sorry mate don't understand how rents will drop? Surely landlords will just put the extra costs they'll incur on the Tennant's? And surely it'll be harder to borrow as well?

By all means mate if i'm completely barking up the wrong tree, put me right. I voted remain but I'm more than happy to be wrong, with a sprog on the way I'm desperate to be wrong!

House prices drop, more people can afford to buy. Less deamand from immigration. Will see rents flatline then start to drop as housebuilding meets demand. Or at least see a slow down in rises.

Brexit: Carney makes property crash warning

 

[kit1982]

House prices drop, more people can afford to buy. Less deamand from immigration. Will see rents flatline then start to drop as housebuilding meets demand. Or at least see a slow down in rises.

Brexit: Carney makes property crash warning

But how does a crash help? I mean firstly the negative equity for existing home owners will dramatically affect the market? Surely if anything existing landlords will just hoover up more properties, especially if the pound continues to struggle?

 

[Lilbaz]

But how does a crash help? I mean firstly the negative equity for existing home owners will dramatically affect the market? Surely if anything existing landlords will just hoover up more properties, especially if the pound continues to struggle?

House prices dropping will make it easier for first time buyers to get on the property ladder. The tories are bringing in rules to reduce tax relief for landlords and clamp down on overseas investment. Landlords are also now selling off properties as tax regulatory changes are already taking effect.

Landlords offload almost 4,000 buy-to-lets a MONTH | This is Money

I really don't care about negative equity, house prices will rise again and at the end of the day a house should be to live in not an investment. We have over 100,000 children homelss in the uk. Something needs to be done.

 

[kit1982]

Whilst I agree with the sentiment I don't think you can just completely disregard negative equity, it can lead to people losing their homes and puts a massive strain on banks that people are still going to need to borrow.

I'm in complete agreement something needs to be done I just don't think a sudden crash would make things any better.

 

[Lilbaz]

Whilst I agree with the sentiment I don't think you can just completely disregard negative equity, it can lead to people losing their homes and puts a massive strain on banks that people are still going to need to borrow.

I'm in complete agreement something needs to be done I just don't think a sudden crash would make things any better.

There is going to be pain no doubt. But for some of us it's worth a stab in the leg than death by a thousand cuts.
People saying there were problems were dismissed for years, shouted down and ignored. Then people got shocked when the vote didn't go their way.
They tried again to dismiss it, people who voted leave were old, stupid or racist. Instead of trying to address the problems they try to overturn the vote.
Most media reports on the problems of brexit but not how we can make it work.
We need to look forward.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

House prices dropping will make it easier for first time buyers to get on the property ladder. The tories are bringing in rules to reduce tax relief for landlords and clamp down on overseas investment. Landlords are also now selling off properties as tax regulatory changes are already taking effect.

Landlords offload almost 4,000 buy-to-lets a MONTH | This is Money

I really don't care about negative equity, house prices will rise again and at the end of the day a house should be to live in not an investment. We have over 100,000 children homelss in the uk. Something needs to be done.

As one who lived through a housing crash, it may make it a bit easier to buy property, but mainly for those that buy them up to sell once the market stabilizes again. Though a housing crash usually comes with other issues in the economy, which means people can't afford them anyways. It is also exactly how people end up with mortgages they can't afford down the line. I am not sure how this would help a homeless situation. If I remember correctly, the housing crash here lead to more homeless people, not less. When crashes come, banks call in their debts, and that leads to more people on the street.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

There is going to be pain no doubt. But for some of us it's worth a stab in the leg than death by a thousand cuts.
People saying there were problems were dismissed for years, shouted down and ignored. Then people got shocked when the vote didn't go their way.
They tried again to dismiss it, people who voted leave were old, stupid or racist. Instead of trying to address the problems they try to overturn the vote.
Most media reports on the problems of brexit but not how we can make it work.
We need to look forward.

Brexit is stupid and is going to hurt Britain. There really is no way around it. This is like suggesting Trump was a good idea.

 

[Lilbaz]

Brexit is stupid and is going to hurt Britain. There really is no way around it. This is like suggesting Trump was a good idea.

Don't care about trump.

But you saying brexit was stupid must make it so. You convinced me.

Tell me though, what difference will it make to your life being in or out of the eu?

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Don't care about trump.

But you saying brexit was stupid must make it so. You convinced me.

The general reaction from the markets and the embarrassment the British PM is putting on seems to show that is exactly what it is. And you don't have to care about Trump. That similar people who voted for him, voted for Brexit is a pretty good example of how much of a crap show Brexit is.

 

[Aximili86]

The embarassment over May is the ineffectiveness of the roleout, not the Brexit thing itself.

As for the markets: hey, it's like people are willing to take a temporary financial hit if it means regaining a little sovereignty. That's never happened through history, nah. We Americans would all be still sipping tea & munching crumpets if that wasn't a calculation people tend to make.

Long-term, it's not going to be a problem. Again, the smaller European nations need the UK way more than they need each of them individually. Greece and Cypress and Lithuania and friggin Bulgaria or whatever are eventually just going to sign unilateral agreements with the UK instead, given it's good for business personally. All comes down to their own interests, same way the British public felt leaving the broader framework was the right call.

It's going to take years to sort all of this **** out, get everything up and running, but they knew that when they voted. Seems they were fine with it to the tune of a majority.

 

[Sithborg]

And again, the dangers are not just economic. A no deal has strong chance of throwing out the Good Friday Agreement. Which will cause a **** load of problems.

 

[Aximili86]

Could, sure. And people factored that in, that's up to them.

You don't take a referendum vote on something and then complain it went one way. Maybe the vote shouldn't have happened, but it did, and the people spoke. Brussels is going to have to deal with it - the UK's gone, it'll take a few years to finalize, and yeah, it'll be messy. Agreed. That's also okay.

 

[kit1982]

There is going to be pain no doubt. But for some of us it's worth a stab in the leg than death by a thousand cuts.
People saying there were problems were dismissed for years, shouted down and ignored. Then people got shocked when the vote didn't go their way.
They tried again to dismiss it, people who voted leave were old, stupid or racist. Instead of trying to address the problems they try to overturn the vote.
Most media reports on the problems of brexit but not how we can make it work.
We need to look forward.

You won't get any argument from me that the referendum was a ****show from both sides.

I just worry, people talk about a little pain but I genuinely worry that some smaller places won't be able to survive it. I live in Lincolnshire, overwhelmingly leave and yet in places like Grimsby there's a real sense that the fishing industry which they were promised would thrive will struggle to survive the next few years.

Certain MP's have changed the narrative from "it'll be the easiest deal in history and there won't be one downside" to "well, it won't be the end of the world".

 

[Iceman]

The referendum was ridiculous with so many people (on both sides) having no idea what they were voting for.