It was easy to be bullish about the UFCs future during the heady days of July 2016. Sure, Rousey had lost to Holly Holm, but there was no reason to think she wouldnt be back. McGregor was coming off two extraordinarily successful pay-per-view fights against Jose Aldo and Nate Diaz, and the rematch with Diaz was set for the next month. Brock Lesnar had returned to headline the UFC 200 show that cracked a million buys. Jon Jones had tested positive for a PED, which was not great, but if and when he returned, he too would be a marketable property. In a star-driven pay-per-view market, having WME-IMG on board to help push the promotions fighters into the spotlight looked like a no-brainer. The TV ratings were good enough, if not mind-boggling. There was good reason to think the next UFC contract might go for as much as $450 million per year.
In retrospect, the situation wasnt nearly as good as it looked. The success of Rousey and McGregor disguised deeper structural issues with the UFCs product. Those two linchpin stars drew record-breaking buy-rates at marquee events and the promotion could scrape together enough star power for standout shows like UFC 200, but the audience for everything else was shrinking.
During its pay-per-view glory years between 2008 and 2010, the UFC had a wide array of marketable draws outside the best-known stars and a strong-enough brand that fans felt compelled to buy events even when they didnt feature elite fighters. Reliable draws like BJ Penn routinely pulled 500,000 or more buys and even dismally booked shows performed well: 2010s UFC 119 card, headlined by an injury-replacement fight nobody was asking for between Mirko Cro Cop and Frank Mir, still drew nearly 300,000 buys.
In 2017, by contrast, it took two compelling title fights and a stacked lineup to drag last Mays UFC 211 card to the 300,000-buy mark. A poor offeringUFC 215, with a womens bantamweight title fight featuring Amanda Nunes and Valentina Shevchenko on the marqueedrew just 100,000 buys, which is the low-water mark in the promotions modern era. The proportion of the UFCs audience thats willing to pay $59.99 for low-end content has fallen drastically. Middle-class draws like Penn or Rashad Evans aged out of relevance or retired altogether, and havent been replaced by fighters who inspire comparable interest from the fans; the UFC 211 numbers bear this out. The UFC fooled itself into thinking that it would always be able to convince a huge number of consumers to buy what it was selling simply because it was branded UFC. It has never quite rid itself of that assumption, even as the evidence against it has continued to mount.
...
We could point to any number of reasons for this, but the UFCs next five scheduled events are as good a summation as any: The UFC just doesnt have enough star power to pull viewers and buyers to all its events. When you ask viewers to care about your product, giving them fighters they know and enjoy is the easiest way to make the sale. At this point, there simply isnt enough name value in the promotion to pull that off. This Saturdays UFC 221 headliner features an interim middleweight title fight between former champion Luke Rockhold and Yoel Romero. It happens to be an outstanding matchup and compelling matchup between two guys I really like. Despite the fact that Rockhold held the belt and Romero fought for one just last summer, though, its not going to sell much of anything.