2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions)

[EML420]

Im going to be honest I don´t think the Hunger Games is going to make Twilight type cash do good sure but not huge.

 

[Liam_H]

$70 million opening weekend with $200 million finish? If it can do that Lionsgate will be very happy but I don't see it doing that well either.

 

[Whiskey Tango]

Also, the concept of going to Mars--where we know humans cannot live and where there are no aliens

Because science fiction is always completely plausible.

 

[ThePowerCosmic]

I'm just hoping that once John Carter spreads via word of mouth due to its quality it'll make more. That's if it's good, which I think it will be. Cowboys and Aliens didn't last long because it wasn't very good, imo.

 

[Hush]

As interesting as John Carter looks I can't help but not be swayed to spend money on it in theaters. Not when there are much better options out around that time in my opinion.

 

[mclay18]

I think John Carter has a chance to surprise in quality, but not at the box office. It's destined to bomb.

Yeah. The fact that Disney put at least $250M into making this movie, with an unproven first-time director and unappealing marketing... it's going to be a slap in Andrew Stanton's face when the box-office numbers roll in. At least when Paramount and Tom Cruise brought on Brad Bird (another Pixar director) to direct MI4, they had the sense to keep it under $200M.

A movie like that has no business costing $250M (or over that), unless you're a big name like James Cameron, Spielberg, or Christopher Nolan where your name will guarantee ticket sales.

 

[Mace Dolex]

Dark Knight Rises will be huge regardless without having the Joker in it, all Batman movies have made money, Batman Begins didn't make that much B.O. but that was only because of the lingering stench left by Batman & Robin but in the end it did have good word of mouth and the critics praised it.

I don't know of the Hobbit series of books being well known outside of the U.S.

 

[Liam_H]

Really? Tolkien fans are pretty widespread.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

I believe it'll come down to marketing, and China -- whether or not TDKR crosses the billion dollar mark again, and takes the number one overall spot in 2012 (domestically and internationally).

 

[Liam_H]

I say The Hobbit takes it WW easily. Also it has the 3D factor which should make it easy.

 

[DACrowe]

Because science fiction is always completely plausible.

But that's leaving the realm of science fiction and becoming more like pure fantasy. Around 1900, life on Mars was a popular daydream as we had little idea of the planet's make-up or what was going on there. Hence the superb "War of the Worlds." Yet, when it was adapted in the 1950s and again by Steven Spielberg in 2006, they left out that the aliens were from Mars and instead had them from some unnamed planet. The reason? People knew when those films were made that life on Mars (at least beyond a cellular level) was factually non-existant.

I think this concept is going to be VERY HARD for audiences to swallow. And given how muddled the trailers have been, I doubt many will try to.

 

[DACrowe]

Really? Tolkien fans are pretty widespread.

Indeed. I'd say Tolkien has more international appeal than Batman or Marvel's stable does. TDKR will finish as the top grosser of the year domestic, in my prediction, but The Hobbit will beat it in international ticket sales. I can't figure which will be #1 overall when the dust settles after the Hobbit finishes its WW run going into next year.

 

[craigdbfan]

Definitely agree on that.

 

[:eek:]

Dark Knight Rises will be huge regardless without having the Joker in it, all Batman movies have made money, Batman Begins didn't make that much B.O. but that was only because of the lingering stench left by Batman & Robin but in the end it did have good word of mouth and the critics praised it.

I don't know of the Hobbit series of books being well known outside of the U.S.

They're more popular outside U.S. And just look at the box office of the LotR-trilogy and most other fantasy adaptations; they've made a lot more money outside America

 

[Spideyfan93]

It's going to be TDKR or Hobbit for all time gross.

Prometheus will either be a sleeping hit or a flop. Avengers, MIB 3, Spidey will make the top 10.


But you never know, there could be a lot of surprising numbers...oh wait I forgot about Breaking Dawn Part 2 in the fall...****!

 

[Boom]

Nothing fills me with greater joy than knowing that this will be the last Twilight film.

 

[Liam_H]

Ehh, let the people who enjoy them enjoy them. Unless you are forced to go and watch them then I understand your pain.

 

[Spideyfan93]

It's going to be so emotional yo.

An entire FOUR YEARS. Like, there's been such a monumental build up of mediocrity for an ending of epic mediocrity.

 

[ThePowerCosmic]

Yeah. The fact that Disney put at least $250M into making this movie, with an unproven first-time director and unappealing marketing... it's going to be a slap in Andrew Stanton's face when the box-office numbers roll in. At least when Paramount and Tom Cruise brought on Brad Bird (another Pixar director) to direct MI4, they had the sense to keep it under $200M.

A movie like that has no business costing $250M (or over that), unless you're a big name like James Cameron, Spielberg, or Christopher Nolan where your name will guarantee ticket sales.

Stanton directed Finding Nemo, this isn't his first time. However, it is his first time directing live-action.

 

[jmc]

I say The Hobbit takes it WW easily. Also it has the 3D factor which should make it easy.

The only way Hobbit doesn't take the crown is if it's a complete disaster. And from what we've seen so far that's look unlikely.

 

[Selim844]

My early summer box office predictions:

OW DG

1. The Dark Knight Rises 150 430
2. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey 100 400
3. The Avengers 110 320
4. Snow White and the Huntsman 90 250
5. The Amazing Spider-Man 40 230
6. Battleship 80 200
7. John Carter 60 180
8. MIB 3 50 170
9. The Bourne Legacy 40 160
10. Wrath of the Titans 70 150
11. G.I. Joe: Retaliation 60 140
12. The Hunger Games 60 140
13. Total Recall 50 130
14. Prometheus 40 120
15. Mirror Mirror 50 120

No animated movies on there. Don't care about those.

 

[:eek:]

Top 5 worldwide so far:

1. Intouchables $201,7 million
2. The Secret World of Arrietty $126,4 million
3. Underworld Awakening $88,7 million
4. The Flowers of War $83,2 million
5. Contraband $65,3 million

 

[moviedoors]

I'm not so much concerned with box office, but I have been feeling like this year is the year that is going to rival 1982 for genre greatness, and after the first couple of movies I've seen so far, I think we're off to a great start. I would love to live through the equaling of 1982.

 

[Selim844]

Early worldwide predictions:

WWG

1. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey 1,25 b
2. The Dark Knight Rises 1 b
3. The Amazing Spider-Man 800
4. The Avengers 700
5. Snow White and the Huntsman 600
6. John Carter 500

 

[Punisher Rising]

TDKR will easily own the box office this year but I also see The Avengers and The Hobbit being big with most of the others doing solid.