2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions)

[Iron_Stark]

Ok, let me rephrase myself, domestically, Spider-Man will come in #1 or #2, WW, probably not.

 

[Infinity9999x]

There's no way in hell Spider-Man doesn't end up #1 or #2 next year.

Oh it easily could. If the trailers are lackluster, then even if the film's good it would probably only do well, not great. In the age of quick DVD releases and internet piracy, people aren't willing to waste money on a film in theaters if it's "iffy." They'll just wait for Netflix or download it.

Spidey definitely has an uphill battle. But it certainly could do very well if we get some good trailers and it builds good hype.

 

[Infinity9999x]

Ok, let me rephrase myself, domestically, Spider-Man will come in #1 or #2, WW, probably not.

It could, but it's certainly not the favorite. I'd honestly say TDKR would be the favorite right now.

Without knowing anything about either film, let's just look at the two situations.

You have TDKR, the sequel to the most popular super hero film ever. It was a critical and financial success, and a box office juggernaut. On top of that, Inception ended up being a bigger hit then anyone else expected. It's riding off the hype of TDK and Inception combined. Add in the fact that they're including probably one of the next most memorable Batman characters aside from the Joker with Catwoman, the movie has TONS of hype going for it. Once it gets into full advertisement mode, the hype will be nuts.

Now we have Spider-man. It's a reboot of a very successful film series. Unfortunately, the last film, while financially successful, was critically luke warm to poor. There were quite a few people who were less then thrilled with the thing. It's got to fight against two kinds of negative stigma: The people who loved the old series and will be ticked that they rebooted, and the people who got burned by SM3 and don't want to waste their time with another Spider-man flick.

If Spider-man doesn't produce trailers that look very enticing, and then advertise like NUTS, it definitely won't come in #1 or #2 domestically. At this point, I'd almost say Avengers has a better shot. And if Cap ends up being as big as Iron Man, then I'd definitely give the edge to Avengers.

 

[cryptic name]

its in the same universum like Alien and it will tell the story before Alien with the alien from the firs tAlien movie?

thank you very much.


call me when someone will come up with a new universum. then we can call it an original franchise.

It started as a prequel, now it's an original story with little or nothing to do with Alien. It's worth being excited about.

 

[Solidus]

It started as a prequel, now it's an original story with little or nothing to do with Alien. It's worth being excited about.

No that is somewhat false. Every single actor that has been talking about this film from the chick from the Dragon Tattoo, to Michael Fassbender has said it clearly is a prequel. As well, they said it takes place 30 years before, the set pics we have gotten clearly show the Space Jockey ship interior. And there has been set reports/spies since April saying they saw Alien costumes and people in them. This is clearly an Alien film. To me they are saying this to make people think this. Alien is a toxic name now, they have drug it through the mud, they are trying to distance themselves from it as much as they can. So that once people go see it and hopefully (its good) it may give Alien a fighting chance again.

It is original in its story, but it still is pretty much talking of where the Alien possibly may come from (something Ridley could never stop talking about) and the Space Jockey's. It's kinda like The Hobbit/Lord of the Rings, a small part of one of the stories has now become the main focus of the new. But it is still int he same world, and has many connections it would seem from what little info we have so far.

 

[superhero]

don'tforget thewolvrin squeal come out in 2012

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

The Wolverine isn't dropping in 2012.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I'm sorry but I don't see the Spider-Man reboot doing anything special at the boxoffice. It's coming off of a disliked movie and two beloved films. The first point is going to hurt because people aren't going to forget that easily and the second point is going to hurt because the movie is another uneeded origin story with a whole other cast and most liked the cast of the original. For all I know it could be a good film but it has a huge uphill climb. Plus by the time it comes out 3D is going to hurt it stateside.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

Like I've said before. At least Star Trek 2 isn't sticking to that June 29th release. It would have murdered The Amazing Spider-Man. So they won't have that excuse when it under-performs.

Yeah, it is going to make money. But don't hold your breath on $300 million+ domestic box-office. I'd say more like the lower end of $200 million.

 

[The Apocalypse]

I can totally see The Avengers opening huge, the moving sucking and then it'll just drop down the weeks after. I hope not though because I've been looking forward to this since Iron Man started it's production. Hunger Games I can see beating out MIB3 and Superman...

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Hunger Games could be the next book to screen hit. It's a pretty popular book series that is doing it's own thing. It's nothing like Twilight or Harry Potter so it shouldn't have any real comparasions to those two. Comparasions to those two is what hurt many a book to screen film. Remember I Am Number Four? Yeah, neither do I.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

That June 29th slot is going to get taken by someone. Wouldn't be surprised if The Hunger Games (I do think that's going to be a big hit myself) took it.

 

[The Apocalypse]

Hunger Games could be the next book to screen hit. It's a pretty popular book series that is doing it's own thing. It's nothing like Twilight or Harry Potter so it shouldn't have any real comparasions to those two. Comparasions to those two is what hurt many a book to screen film. Remember I Am Number Four? Yeah, neither do I.

Exactly. The only thing I'm worried about is people starting on the 'Team' stuff like they started with Twilight. Because there is a sub-plot over which dude she is in love with but it really has NOTHING to do with the story overall.

 

[terry78]

Chicks are suckers for love triangles. It's like genetically imprinted into their dna.

 

[chaseter]

Ok, let me rephrase myself, domestically, Spider-Man will come in #1 or #2, WW, probably not.

It won't do that either.

Right now the top contenders are TDKR and LOTR. Avengers may even beat Spider-Man. The Spider-Man reboot won't even go over 300 domestic. It would be lucky to get 250-275. I see Spider-Man coming in 3rd or 4th for the year.

 

[Infinity9999x]

It won't do that either.

Right now the top contenders are TDKR and LOTR. Avengers may even beat Spider-Man. The Spider-Man reboot won't even go over 300 domestic. It would be lucky to get 250-275. I see Spider-Man coming in 3rd or 4th for the year.

Agreed. And heck, if Captain America is as big as Iron Man, there's a good chance the Avengers could compete for one of the top three spots.

 

[Asteroid-Man]

The Dark Knight Rises
The Amazing Spider-Man
The Hobbit
The Man of Steel
Avengers
Star Trek 2

 

[Infinity9999x]

The Dark Knight Rises
The Amazing Spider-Man
The Hobbit
The Man of Steel
Avengers
Star Trek 2

I would love ASM to be in the top three. At this point, I'm hoping for a BB situation though. Have the movie do well, but I'm expecting it to open to nothing crazy, but the quality will give it good legs. Once the public hears the good buzz and it generates popularity in DVD/Netflix sales, the next film should be huge.

That's if the film itself is good. If it's not, then lord help the Spider-man franchise. But I'm hoping it'll be good.

 

[Asteroid-Man]

Spider-Man will do incredible either way. Kids+International audience=Success.

 

[Infinity9999x]

Spider-Man will do incredible either way. Kids+International audience=Success.

Spidey definitley has an edge in the wideness of his appeal in terms of audience, but a bad movie can definitely hurt a franchise. If this next movie isn't good, it will probably make money, but it could definitely hurt. Heck, even Batman and Robin made solid money, and that film is outright horrible.

I mean, I hope it's good and it does well. Spidey is one of my favorite superheroes, the first superhero I ever liked actually. But he's definitley got some negative buzz to overcome. There are a lot of people who loved the old films who will be ticked at the reboot, and a lot of people who were burned by SM3 that would rather wait for Netflix/DVD.

However, since Spidey is such a popular character, one good trailer could turn that all around.

 

[jmc]

Safe bets - TDKR and The Hobbit will battle it out for the gold (I'd probably give Hobbit a slight edge), everyone else is battling it out for the bronze.

 

[dark_b]

It started as a prequel, now it's an original story with little or nothing to do with Alien. It's worth being excited about.

yet they are using the dead alien from the first movie?

its not an original franchise.

 

[dark_b]

Hunger Games could be the next book to screen hit. It's a pretty popular book series that is doing it's own thing. It's nothing like Twilight or Harry Potter so it shouldn't have any real comparasions to those two. Comparasions to those two is what hurt many a book to screen film. Remember I Am Number Four? Yeah, neither do I.

but those are the books. how do we know that the movie will be like the books and unique? what if they will make the movie like Twilight or I am number 4? i think they will try to make it like Twilight.

 

[lime]

Why do people think Spider-man will under preform? Because the third movie sucked?

Again I repeat myself: Pirates of the Caribbean 2 and 3 were not the favorite movie by fans and critics (specially #3) and yet #4 is making 1 billion next week (and #4 sucked too).

And POTC 3 had 45% in RT as SM 3 had 63% in RT.

Movies form those franchises will make monster money aways. POTC 4 prove it this year. Bad previous movies and even bad current reviews can't stop it of making much money.

My sure 4 in next year's TOP 5 are:

TDKR
Hobbit
Spider-Man
Twilight

For me the question is who will be the fifth

 

[Iron_Stark]

It won't do that either.

Right now the top contenders are TDKR and LOTR. Avengers may even beat Spider-Man. The Spider-Man reboot won't even go over 300 domestic. It would be lucky to get 250-275. I see Spider-Man coming in 3rd or 4th for the year.

The first two LOTR didn't even come in first place domestically and even then, one got beat by Spider-Man.

People are seriously underestimating SM's drawing power. There are more kiddies that are into Spidey than Hobbits.