2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions)

[Marvin]

Safe bets - TDKR and The Hobbit will battle it out for the gold (I'd probably give Hobbit a slight edge), everyone else is battling it out for the bronze.

a decade is a long time to be banking on the success of the previous films, i think TDK has the edge there.

 

[jmc]

^ Huh? Even taking away the previous films the Batman fan base is dwarfed by the Tolkien fans.

 

[Marvin]

^ Huh? Even taking away the previous films the Batman fan base is dwarfed by the Tolkien fans.

1. It's different when discussing box office relevance. There's a reason why studio's push for sequels very soon after success...IM,TF.

2. what a curious debate, does tolkien have more fans than the batman.
I know who has the younger audience.

 

[jmc]

Yeah but we're talking about The Hobbit here, the follow up to LOTR, one of the greatest movie trilogies ever and the most read book outside of the bible, plus the same creative team has returned, if it wasn't for TDK and Nolan this wouldn't even be a close race, Hobbit wins hands down not just because of the previous films, but because of the entire Tolkien Middle Earth catalog. Oh and Tolkien fans outnumber all comics fans, not just Batman, it's not even a contest.

 

[chaseter]

The first two LOTR didn't even come in first place domestically and even then, one got beat by Spider-Man.

People are seriously underestimating SM's drawing power. There are more kiddies that are into Spidey than Hobbits.

Look at how much Spider-Man 3 made domestic. Now look at how much each LOTR film made.

If this was Spider-Man 4, then I would agree with you. However, this is a REBOOT. The Spider-Man reboot will get no where close to what any of the previous movies made. If you think it will get $400 million domestic then you are crazy. You know what will likely get $400 million? TDKR. Now each LOTR film has made over $300 million. Return of the King made as much as Spider-Man 2. The Hobbit is a lock in for over $300 million domestic. I would bet that it makes at least $300 million.

People are seriously over estimating the Spider-Man reboot. Superman is an A-list hero and Superman Returns only made $200 million domestic. Batman and Robin only made $100 domestic. Just because an A-list hero is in a big budget summer movie doesn't mean it's going to make $400 million domestic. You have to take into account what the general audience thinks. They liked SM1-3 so they aren't going to line up at midnight like they did for SM3 to see the reboot when the origin is being retold again, the actors that they know and loved are gone, and a new style of direction will be given that they might not like.

Spider-Man reboot will not be #1 or #2 for the year. TDKR is a 99.9% lock in for #1. The Hobbit is a 99.9% lock in for over $300 million domestic. Those I can guarantee.

 

[craigdbfan]

TDKR and Hobbit easily. The Avengers as well.

 

[Doctor Jones]

It's going to be either TDKR or The Hobbit but this is how I see it

TDKR or The Hobbit

The Avengers

TASM

And I spoke about this in the SM thread, this reboot won't make as much as the previous films. Chas has it right with that. Sure it's Spider-Man but you have somethings going agasint it. And they're not small. They're pretty substantial.

 

[Doctor Jones]

Look at how much Spider-Man 3 made domestic. Now look at how much each LOTR film made.

If this was Spider-Man 4, then I would agree with you. However, this is a REBOOT. The Spider-Man reboot will get no where close to what any of the previous movies made. If you think it will get $400 million domestic then you are crazy. You know what will likely get $400 million? TDKR. Now each LOTR film has made over $300 million. Return of the King made as much as Spider-Man 2. The Hobbit is a lock in for over $300 million domestic. I would bet that it makes at least $300 million.

People are seriously over estimating the Spider-Man reboot. Superman is an A-list hero and Superman Returns only made $200 million domestic. Batman and Robin only made $100 domestic. Just because an A-list hero is in a big budget summer movie doesn't mean it's going to make $400 million domestic. You have to take into account what the general audience thinks. They liked SM1-3 so they aren't going to line up at midnight like they did for SM3 to see the reboot when the origin is being retold again, the actors that they know and loved are gone, and a new style of direction will be given that they might not like.

Spider-Man reboot will not be #1 or #2 for the year. TDKR is a 99.9% lock in for #1. The Hobbit is a 99.9% lock in for over $300 million domestic. Those I can guarantee.

The Hobbit could have the edge over TDKR. Maybe.

As much as I would like to see footage from all these films, my personal interest and/or excitment over these films could get in the way. LIke, "How could people NOT want to see this? This looks amazing!"

I'm sorry but I don't see the Spider-Man reboot doing anything special at the boxoffice. It's coming off of a disliked movie and two beloved films. The first point is going to hurt because people aren't going to forget that easily and the second point is going to hurt because the movie is another uneeded origin story with a whole other cast and most liked the cast of the original. For all I know it could be a good film but it has a huge uphill climb. Plus by the time it comes out 3D is going to hurt it stateside.

And it opens three weeks after TDKR. It will get swallowed up by that. TDKR may not make as much as TDK, but it will open huge and be a smash hit. It's coming off of the hype train of the unanimously praised and loved TDK. People will want to see what happens next. Then factor in what we will see from it, and people will make sure to see it. This new Spider-Man reboot with new actors and a new direction where they already saw an origin film ten years before won't even be much cared about when TDKR rolls around.

TDKR is pretty much a gaurantee to beat the crap out of Spider-Man. I want both to do well as I love both equally, and am excited that I'm getting a new Spider-Man and Batman film within a few weeks of eachother, but you have to face the facts. I mean which is more likely to be number 1 and make more? The character who's come off a smash hit and much loved film from four years ago or a character who came off of a mixed response film from five years ago (despite the love the overall franchsie still recieves) But it could also be the fact that people just love the previous films so much they just aren't ready nor have much desire to see yet another Spider-Man film in a new direction (or reboot) much less an origin when it already happened ten years ago.

This all figures into money. I try to explain it on the SM boards, but some won't have it.

Like I've said before. At least Star Trek 2 isn't sticking to that June 29th release. It would have murdered The Amazing Spider-Man. So they won't have that excuse when it under-performs.

Yeah, it is going to make money. But don't hold your breath on $300 million+ domestic box-office. I'd say more like the lower end of $200 million.

I'd say it will make a little more than $200 million myself.

It won't do that either.

Right now the top contenders are TDKR and LOTR. Avengers may even beat Spider-Man. The Spider-Man reboot won't even go over 300 domestic. It would be lucky to get 250-275. I see Spider-Man coming in 3rd or 4th for the year.

Avengers will beat Spider-Man I feel. These films are more fresh in audiences minds. Plus this is a huge thing. I mean whent hat first trailer comes out and you see those four guys on screen together, it's going to be hard to not get interested in that huge event. It's never happened before. But the trailers have to do good.

I just think to myself, sure you have kids to consider, but it comes down to the audience wanting to see the movie, and more importantly, willing to spend the money to see them. Regardless of the popularity.

 

[Marvin]

Yeah but we're talking about The Hobbit here, the follow up to LOTR, one of the greatest movie trilogies ever and the most read book outside of the bible, plus the same creative team has returned, if it wasn't for TDK and Nolan this wouldn't even be a close race, Hobbit wins hands down not just because of the previous films, but because of the entire Tolkien Middle Earth catalog. Oh and Tolkien fans outnumber all comics fans, not just Batman, it's not even a contest.

curious
do tolkien fans out number potter fans as well?

 

[John McGuirk]

Ok, let me rephrase myself, domestically, Spider-Man will come in #1 or #2, WW, probably not.

NO WAY

It's a ripple effect in some way... sure, SM3 made a ton of money, but so did X-Men 3 and people still didn't take to Wolverine (as they should have) and First Class as they could have. The mediocrity that was Spider-Man 3 will have an effect on ASM. Yeah, it's 4th of July weekend opening will be huge, but the dropoff after that will be big. I bet 60-70% easily.

And it doesn't help that people will be looking two weeks later to the biggest summer movie, The Dark Knight Rises. Batman Begins' word-of-mouth due to DVD/PPV/cable showings helped make TDK what it was, and even if TDKR isn't as good as TDK (but it will still be solid), it'll still own the summer.

And Avengers will be big, yeah, but Hobbit and TDKR will be 1 and 2. Without a doubt.

 

[Infinity9999x]

curious
do tolkien fans out number potter fans as well?

The Harry Potter books as a series have sold more then the LOTR books. However, HP does have seven main books while Tolkien only has four, so it's important to take that into account.

Overall though, it's hard to tell if there would be more HP fans then LOTR fans. There would be a lot of overlap, I myself love both series. HP has wider appeal, stretching from adults to kids. While Tolkien really only appeals to advanced tweens to adults.

 

[:eek:]

My predictions

Domestic winner: The Dark Knight Rises
Worldwide winner: The Hobbit

 

[Tacit Ronin]

TDKR will most assuredly make less domestically than TDK. However, Rises' overseas number will be huge. Remember, TDK didn't open in China, Rises probably will.

 

[kedrell]

Batman movies ALWAYS do worse overseas than domestic.

 

[Doctor Jones]

It's still pretty impressive WW it helped it to get to a billion.

I do agree TDKR will not make as much, but it will still be the runaway success of next summer.

 

[kedrell]

2 things are pretty much a given for TDKR:

1)It'll make less money than it's predecessor

2)It'll make more domestic than overseas

 

[Doctor Jones]

The Harry Potter books as a series have sold more then the LOTR books. However, HP does have seven main books while Tolkien only has four, so it's important to take that into account.

Overall though, it's hard to tell if there would be more HP fans then LOTR fans. There would be a lot of overlap, I myself love both series. HP has wider appeal, stretching from adults to kids. While Tolkien really only appeals to advanced tweens to adults.

LOTR is the second most read book behind the Bible. It's been around much longer than HP as well. Count that with the languages it's been translated in and it's huge.

The Hobbit has the edge worldwide. Most of LOTR's money came from WW.

 

[Doctor Jones]

2 things are pretty much a given for TDKR:

1)It'll make less money than it's predecessor

2)It'll make more domestic than overseas

Yeah, pretty much. TDK made over $500 mill right? It very well could get in the $400's even. But it won't make the $500's.

 

[Marvin]

why do you guys think batman will make less?
by that logic the last potter film should make less than it's highest grossing installment no?

 

[kedrell]

why do you guys think batman will make less?
by that logic the last potter film should make less than it's highest grossing installment no?

The last Potter film wasn't influenced by the same factors that TDK was. HP8 is the last HP film....forever. Even the dumbest person knows TDKR will not be the last Batman movie. Batman is like James Bond. They'll be making movies about him forever.

TDKR will make less because much of the reason TDK did so well was:

A)The Joker being in it.

and

B)Unusual circumstances(Ledger's death) that ended up benefiting that film and created sort of a 'perfect storm' scenario for it that simply won't be repeated as the odds are too great against that happening.

 

[chaseter]

Yeah there is no way TDKR will make 500+ million domestic.

 

[kedrell]

I don't even think Avatar 2 could make $500M domestic. That's lightning in a bottle territory. You can't predict it, and you can't get there by trying. Circumstances just have to line up right for it to happen. There's a reason only 3 films in history have done it.

 

[Marvin]

hmm, just realized this isn't the batman forum

 

[Rocketman]

The four juggernauts will clearly be:

The Dark Knight Rises
The Avengers
The Amazing Spider-Man
The Hobbit: Part I

There's no need to even include a #5.
These four movies will define the year, and the order of their box office success is impossible to determine.

...But if I had to guess:

1. The Hobbit: Part I
2. The Dark Knight Rises
3. The Avengers
4. The Amazing Spider-Man

2012 will come down to Batman vs. Hobbit.

 

[Chewy]

TDKR, Hobbit, and Avengers will be massive and will be the top 3 of the year. I don't even think that's really a question.

With Star Trek 2 potentially dropping in the winter and the final Twilight movie I don't think Spidey's making top 5.