2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions)

[vanson]

The Hobbit and Dark Knight Rises will lead the field...

they are both very strong franchises. both last movies made over 1billion at the box office... they are just highly anticipated and will get over the 1billion mark again i think..

the rest is just very hard.. ice age 4 will do very well, avengers is the first superhero team ensemble pieces, superman will have a good story (nolan+goyer), and no-cgi-swinging-spidey will be interesting too

 

[Marvin]

Daredevil as one of Marvel's flagship characters? C'mon.

I mean in terms of what Bendis did
wonderman? Union jack? < DareDevil when it comes to comics.

 

[Iron_Stark]

Marvel is basically defined by Spider-Man and Wolverine. Without those two characters, Marvel wouldn't be Marvel by just having Thor, Captain America, Iron Man, or the Hulk. Those four aren't the mainstream juggernauts that Spidey and Wolverine are. It's the sum of Marvel's parts that make them big, while Spidey and Wolverine are the two singular characters that keep the company going.

Marvel is equal to DC when it comes to popular, mainstream characters. DC is defined by Batman and Superman. Like Marvel, DC wouldn't survive with just Green Lantern or Wonder Woman. Both companies are tied for 2 and 2. Before 2008 and 2011, Iron Man and Thor were not popular, and I'd even put forth the brass and say that Iron Man was virtually unknown to the average joe. And I'll also go ahead and claim that Robert Downey Jr. is the Iron Man franchise.

Batman, Superman, Spider-Man, and Wolverine are simply the four most recognized, popular, mainstream superheroes in comics. Nobody tops them. Both companies are tied. So I don't understand the claim that Marvel has more characters or "better" characters. Marvel survives on two characters just like DC does.

The only major difference I see is that DC is more ambitious when it comes to adult-oriented material such as Watchmen, V for Vendetta, and basically everything in the Vertigo line, like Y: The Last Man and Sandman.

Ok what's your point? Watchmen bombed at the boxoffice and financially ***ed WB, and V didn't exactly light up the BO.

Asfar as the rest of the post, lmao, that laughable, right now Iron Man is Marvels #2 Golden Boy, not Wolverine. He's pulled in more money for Marvel in these past couple of years than Wolverine did this whole decade. Mainstreamwise people obviously like the character better.

The Avengers is going to make 300 million AT MOST and possibly less. I think fanboys are just crazy for it

You mean the Hobbit. People are overestimating that movie. The first two didn't come in first place domestically and one got beat by Spider-Man.

 

[Sentinel X]

Why did TDK gain new audience members? Surely Batman and Joker appeal to the same demographic.

Was it because it was a sequel that brought something new, something fresh, something interesting to the table? Was it because they took something that audiences loved and spun it in a new way that audiences loved? Was it because they took the existing pieces and made an even greater whole?

I am not implying Avengers will increase as significantly as TDK did. Obviously there were extenuating circumstances (Heath Ledger). I am very much so saying that it will increase, though.

The Dark Knight had the same tone and mood as Batman Begins and broke the opening weekend record indicating that people saw Batman Begins on dvd or tv and really liked it. Secondly, The Dark Knight is a box office anomaly (anything that makes over 500 million domestically is) and was the first sequel to batman begins. With the avengers we've seen how Iron man and Iron Man II have performed, we've seen how Thor and Hulk have performed. These are better movies to compare them to imo


I'm not saying it is far fetched for this to make more than 300 million (my personal prediction as of now is under 300 million) but its reasonable if someone thinks it will make more however 400 million just seems absurd at this point especially given that we haven't even had a trailer yet

You mean the Hobbit. People are overestimating that movie. The first two didn't come in first place domestically and one got beat by Spider-Man.

Um no....every LOTR film made over 300 million domestically (which is much higher with today's 3D and inflation prices) and they all destroyed spider-man at the worldwide box office. Not to mention the last one won a million academy awards and still stands as the third biggest movie of all time. period.
300+ million domestic and 1 billion worldwide is guaranteed for The Hobbit

 

[Infinity9999x]

LOTR is the second most read book behind the Bible. It's been around much longer than HP as well. Count that with the languages it's been translated in and it's huge.

The Hobbit has the edge worldwide. Most of LOTR's money came from WW.

Actually, as an individual book, Dickens' "A Tale of Two Cities" as sold more then LOTR.

I'm not knocking LOTR, there's no denying it's huge influence in the literary world. Heck, it revolutionized fantasy. So yeah, LOTR is huge. I do think the Hobbit will be huge (LOTR makes a killing overseas) but domestically I don't expect it to come in at number one. All the other films made in the 300 to high 300mil range. There's a very good chance that TDKR will out-gross it in the U.S.

 

[kedrell]

The Dark Knight is a box office anomaly (anything that makes over 500 million domestically is)

Truer words are seldom spoken. A $500M+ domestic grosser simply cannot be predicted(except by just guessing like throwing random darts and just getting lucky).

 

[Doctor Jones]

Actually, as an individual book, Dickens' "A Tale of Two Cities" as sold more then LOTR.

I'm not knocking LOTR, there's no denying it's huge influence in the literary world. Heck, it revolutionized fantasy. So yeah, LOTR is huge. I do think the Hobbit will be huge (LOTR makes a killing overseas) but domestically I don't expect it to come in at number one. All the other films made in the 300 to high 300mil range. There's a very good chance that TDKR will out-gross it in the U.S.

Oh, you bastard you proved me wrong you.

I'm not going to argue with that. And I could easily see that happening. WW The Hobbit will do more. TDKR may not even cross the billion mark. Maybe close, but not past it. But domestically, TDKR will do incredible. Although being that The Hobbit will have come out nine years after ROTK, there could have been a whole new audience gained. Granted, I'm sure everyone then will see this now, but those who didn't see it in theaters who saw it on DVD (as small as they may be) and just the acclaim and attention it's gotten. And it could have picked up another generation of fans. It may not help much, but it still could, even if it's just a bit.

 

[Spideyfan93]

I agree with the statement that Avengers will be an event. It is a very ambitious film and people will go, even if they only like a certain hero. Many will go for Iron Man or for the sheer fact that there are a bunch of amazing heroes together. Same with TDKR because...well, no explanation necessary.

Spidey is an underdog for once with all the other big movies releasing. If Spidey is a good film it won't have a problem making a lot of money.

Hobbit Part I will be huge too. It is connected to LOTR, enough said.

Curious as to how MIB3 will do. I think it will be a success but it won't break records. Unless a lot of people are craving some MIB like I am heavily.

Superman, I honestly don't know yet.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

If this was Spidey 4 and not the amazing Spider-man, it would've given both TDKR and the Avengers a run for their money.

 

[venom892]

A lot of people still think it is Spider-man 4.

 

[Infinity9999x]

Oh, you bastard you proved me wrong you.

I'm not going to argue with that. And I could easily see that happening. WW The Hobbit will do more. TDKR may not even cross the billion mark. Maybe close, but not past it. But domestically, TDKR will do incredible. Although being that The Hobbit will have come out nine years after ROTK, there could have been a whole new audience gained. Granted, I'm sure everyone then will see this now, but those who didn't see it in theaters who saw it on DVD (as small as they may be) and just the acclaim and attention it's gotten. And it could have picked up another generation of fans. It may not help much, but it still could, even if it's just a bit.

I'm a stinker like thatt:

And I agree. I don't think TDKR has much of an edge domestically, but I'd still say it's the favorite at this point. Hobbit could definitley pass it though. And heck, like I said a while back, it's really hard for me to call exactly what will come out on top. I still think Avengers could end up being a surprise explosion hit. And if Spidey has some great trailers and builds hype, then he could easily shoot back up into one of the favorites. Let's face it, even the worst Spidey movie made bank.

If this was Spidey 4 and not the amazing Spider-man, it would've given both TDKR and the Avengers a run for their money.

With some of the rumors of the script for SM4 I had heard...I'm not so sure about that.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

A lot of people still think it is Spider-man 4.

Not when they see the lack of Tobey and rest of the cast.

 

[Moridin]

I agree with the consensus so far; Hobbit & TDKR duking it out for 1st & 2nd.

I agree with the statement that Avengers will be an event. It is a very ambitious film and people will go, even if they only like a certain hero. Many will go for Iron Man or for the sheer fact that there are a bunch of amazing heroes together.

I'm kind of going back & forth with Avengers wondering if I'm letting my own hype get in the way. If it's a damn good movie then I'd say it'll do at least IM numbers. If it's a damn good movie & advertised as the "event" it is ...

Spidey is an underdog for once with all the other big movies releasing. If Spidey is a good film it won't have a problem making a lot of money.

I think TASM could be comparable to XFC. Coming of a mediocre-at-best last film, has an entirely new cast, will have plenty competition. Even if it's good I don't think it'll be a "juggernaut" as someone else here put it.

If the superman movie the comes out next year is everything the perfect superman movie could be. And the visuals are that of a visualist and not Bryan Singer. It has one of the most popular characters ever created and it has an all star cast.

I would say Superman is more "well known" than "popular".
I think Supes could be in a similar boat to Spidey.

 

[kedrell]

If this was Spidey 4 and not the amazing Spider-man, it would've given both TDKR and the Avengers a run for their money.

I kinda doubt it. Especially domestic. One thing you notice about Raimi's Spidey movies....the grosses keep going down from film to film regardless of how well received the movie was. And while it has no real bearing on ticket sales, it's worthwhile to note that at the same time as that was happening, the budgets kept going up and up. That's a bad scenario no matter which way you slice it.

 

[xmangambit]

Man of Steel
Prometheus

Enough said.

 

[TheIncredibleSk]

If Superman Returns can get 200M in the states I pretty sure Man of Steel can. Probably more. I think it has to have legs over seas because thats what killed SR.

 

[Infinity9999x]

I think TASM could be comparable to XFC. Coming of a mediocre-at-best last film, has an entirely new cast, will have plenty competition. Even if it's good I don't think it'll be a "juggernaut" as someone else here put it.

I agree that it's in a similar situation, yet I think Spidey will still have a bigger BO intake then First Class. The difference is that Spider-man has always been a bigger box office draw then any of the x-men films. Even spidey's worst movie made a lot of money.

 

[TheIncredibleSk]

I think ASM will make Iron Man 1 money. Thats still pretty good but it wont make even close to Spiderman 3,2, or 1.

 

[terry78]

Everyone is trying to strike Batman gold with their reboots of comic movies, but it won't always fly.

 

[Doctor Jones]

Man of Steel
Prometheus

Enough said.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

I kinda doubt it. Especially domestic. One thing you notice about Raimi's Spidey movies....the grosses keep going down from film to film regardless of how well received the movie was. And while it has no real bearing on ticket sales, it's worthwhile to note that at the same time as that was happening, the budgets kept going up and up. That's a bad scenario no matter which way you slice it.

But the overseas numbers were massive. Hypothetically, Spidey 4's overseas numbers would be in the Pirates 4 domain in today's box office climate.

Hmmm, I wonder how well ASM will do overseas? It certainly has the brand name, and 3D.

 

[Armored Avenger]

I think The Hobbit will definitely make the most in 2012, with The Dark Knight Rises coming in second. I don't think Spider-Man stands a chance against Batman next year

 

[kedrell]

But the overseas numbers were massive. Hypothetically, Spidey 4's overseas numbers would be in the Pirates 4 domain in today's box office climate.

Hmmm, I wonder how well ASM will do overseas? It certainly has the brand name, and 3D.

I don't think so. SM3 did the best OS of the series and it just went a bit past $500M there. POTC4 has done a quarter billion $ more than that and I don't see how a Spidey film could get there in today's market. And Spidey 3 did so IMO for the simple fact that Venom was in the movie. Well, he wouldn't be back for the 4th film. It's kinda like the Joker scenario with Batman. Comic book die-hards aside, I think Venom is the GA's favorite Spidey villain.

 

[Octoberist]

People inherently love Spider-Man so I can see ASM being a hit. And since the budget is lower it won't hurt the studio either way.

Plus I have a theory why X-Man First Class was a huge hit: No Hugh Jackman as the lead..which is sad since finally we didn't get a Wolverine part 5 out of this one.

 

[chaseter]

The budget isn't 80 million. I think someone came out and said it was 150 or something like that.