2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions)

[MessiahDecoy123]

With a 150 million dudget ASM would need at least 500 million worlwide to be profitable, so Iron Man numbers would be acceptable (580-620 m).

 

[Doctor Jones]

Yet for Spider-Man, that's considered an underperformer. Unless the studio has lower expectations. Either that would be an excuse, or they're smart and actually think this new film has a bit of an uphill climb.

 

[chaseter]

Sony Pictures is going bankrupt anyways.

If they sell off the company, which insiders are saying they will for the 2012 fiscal year, then it will be interesting to see if Marvel buys back Spider-Man and what they will do with this movie if the sale happens before the movie is released. Will the movie be released and Marvel continue with that series or will this movie be a Superman Returns sort of deal and Marvel reboot it???

 

[Matt]

Sony Pictures is going bankrupt anyways.

If they sell off the company, which insiders are saying they will for the 2012 fiscal year, then it will be interesting to see if Marvel buys back Spider-Man and what they will do with this movie if the sale happens before the movie is released. Will the movie be released and Marvel continue with that series or will this movie be a Superman Returns sort of deal and Marvel reboot it???

I dunno, three Spider-Man reboots in a period of 15 years would be a bit much, IMO. I think if ASM is not a success (and mind you, not a success in the sense that Tron Legacy was successful but a success that equates to the expectations of a Spider-Man movie), it will be awhile before we see the wallcrawler on the big screen again.

 

[Spider-Fan]

I agree. I think this is a big reason this Spider-Man reboot was a bad idea. SM4 would have cost around the same as this reboot is ending up costing (maybe 50 mil more), but would have been guaranteed more money for Sony. Now, we are getting a reboot Marvel may not ant to build off of if they get the rights back, and get a TIH type situation with Spider-Man.

The Spider-Man franchise is in a very bad spot. It's going to bank the least of any Spider-Man film, possibly be a one shot, and if it is a one shot, may alienate Spider-Man's audience to being no bigger than Iron Man's. How the mighty have fallen.

 

[chaseter]

I dunno, three Spider-Man reboots in a period of 15 years would be a bit much, IMO. I think if ASM is not a success (and mind you, not a success in the sense that Tron Legacy was successful but a success that equates to the expectations of a Spider-Man movie), it will be awhile before we see the wallcrawler on the big screen again.

No way would Marvel let Spidey sit in the corner for 15 years.

I really do hope Sony sells Sony Pictures and Marvel gets back the rights. I am not really excited for ASM anyways so if it is a one shot like Superman Returns then oh well. If it's an amazing movie that is critically acclaimed and fan loved then I could see Marvel continuing that franchise. But chamon, we all know that isn't going to happen. But, you know that Marvel would immediately start up on Spider-Man once they got it back. I would even bet we see Spider-Man in the third or second Avengers movie when RDJ leaves.

And yes, Sony is very dumb for not doing SM4. I bet a year ago the thought this was the best decision in the world. Tsk tsk. Sam could have finished his vision and Sony could have made a nice profit before having to sell off Spider-Man. But now they will make a marginal profit if that and have to get rid of their flagship franchise.

 

[Jick]

I doubt they'll make a small profit.
They'll certainly make a good ammount and, if the marketing is right and the trailers are impressive, it'll be big.

 

[Spider-Fan]

No way would Marvel let Spidey sit in the corner for 15 years.

I really do hope Sony sells Sony Pictures and Marvel gets back the rights. I am not really excited for ASM anyways so if it is a one shot like Superman Returns then oh well. If it's an amazing movie that is critically acclaimed and fan loved then I could see Marvel continuing that franchise. But chamon, we all know that isn't going to happen. But, you know that Marvel would immediately start up on Spider-Man once they got it back. I would even bet we see Spider-Man in the third or second Avengers movie when RDJ leaves.

And yes, Sony is very dumb for not doing SM4. I bet a year ago the thought this was the best decision in the world. Tsk tsk. Sam could have finished his vision and Sony could have made a nice profit before having to sell off Spider-Man. But now they will make a marginal profit if that and have to get rid of their flagship franchise.

Agreed. Marvel wouldn't sit on Spider-Man all that long. They'd get him back on the screen (ala TIH requel). I don't want Spidey in Avengers films, though. He works best as a solo character to me.

I'm also not that excited for ASM. I don't think it is going to be all that good. I wish we got SM4, and SM4 would have made more money. Anyone who thinks otherwise is fooling themselves. Sony is going bankrupt, and I am sure are kicking themselves for making their flagship property into an Iron Man-esque franchise. Bravo Sony

 

[Spider-Fan]

I doubt they'll make a small profit.
They'll certainly make a good ammount and, if the marketing is right and the trailers are impressive, it'll be big.

It won't make the 800+ mil the other Spider-Man films made. I think it will make 500-600 WW. But that's it. Small gross for a Spider-Man film.

 

[chaseter]

They will be spending $250-$300 million on the movie with marketing. It will have to make $600 or more worldwide to turn a box office profit. Yes they will make money on merchandising but the designs are so different that I doubt that venture will be as profitable as the last movies. Plus I am sure Sony doesn't get all the merchandising profit.

 

[Rocketman]

What in the world is everyone smoking? Spider-Man is going to make insane amounts of money. You're grossly underestimating it.

- Spider-Man 3 left a terrible taste in everyone's mouth.
- The entire Raimi/Maguire formula was getting stale and monotonous.
- Kirsten Dunst was annoying.
- The series had absolutely no direction to go after 3. It was stuck, and needed to be rebooted.
- Vulture and Black Cat were rumored characters, and you can't sell a huge movie after you already used Green Goblin, Doc Ock and Venom.

- Andrew Garfield is an up-and-coming star. He's slowly getting bigger, and The Social Network helped that.
- It has a smaller budget, which helps gain more profit.
- Spider-Man is Spider-Man. People will flock to it. It doesn't need to be "introduced" to anyone like Iron Man was. People know this character.

 

[Spider-Fan]

What in the world is everyone smoking? Spider-Man is going to make insane amounts of money. You're grossly underestimating it.

- Spider-Man 3 left a terrible taste in everyone's mouth.
- The entire Raimi/Maguire formula was getting stale and monotonous.
- Kirsten Dunst was annoying.
- The series had absolutely no direction to go after 3. It was stuck, and needed to be rebooted.
- Vulture and Black Cat were rumored characters, and you can't sell a huge movie after you already used Green Goblin, Doc Ock and Venom.

- Andrew Garfield is an up-and-coming star. He's slowly getting bigger, and The Social Network helped that.
- It has a smaller budget, which helps gain more profit.
- Spider-Man is Spider-Man. People will flock to it. It doesn't need to be "introduced" to anyone like Iron Man was. People know this character.

Fixed

They also know Batman. Batman Begins didn't kill at the BO. Everyone knows Superman. SR didn't kill at the BO. Just being Spider-Man won't sell the movie. Also, Maguire and co were the only Spider-Man people knew on film. It's harder to replace them.

 

[chaseter]

Andrew Lincoln hahahahahaha

This movie won't make 300 domestic and I doubt make 600 worldwide.

The smaller budget was false. It is being reported to be 150+. No way was a Spider-Man movie going to have an 80 million dollar budget.

 

[Chewy]

What in the world is everyone smoking? Spider-Man is going to make insane amounts of money. You're grossly underestimating it.

- Spider-Man 3 left a terrible taste in everyone's mouth.
- The entire Raimi/Maguire formula was getting stale and monotonous.
- Kirsten Dunst was annoying.
- The series had absolutely no direction to go after 3. It was stuck, and needed to be rebooted.
- Vulture and Black Cat were rumored characters, and you can't sell a huge movie after you already used Green Goblin, Doc Ock and Venom.

- Andrew Lincoln is an up-and-coming star. He's slowly getting bigger, and The Social Network helped that.
- It has a smaller budget, which helps gain more profit.
- Spider-Man is Spider-Man. People will flock to it. It doesn't need to be "introduced" to anyone like Iron Man was. People know this character.

You made a lot of points in this post but you didn't really say anything. Why is it going to make insane amounts of money? Because people disliked the last Spider-Man movie and this one has a smaller budget?

 

[Rocketman]

Sorry for the Lincoln/Garfield error. Please forgive me.

 

[Spider-Fan]

If people hated the last film, isn't that a reason for them to NOT see the new one? Not flock to it? I don't see the logic behind SM3 sucked, so this will make bank.

 

[Rocketman]

If people hated the last film, isn't that a reason for them to NOT see the new one? Not flock to it? I don't see the logic behind SM3 sucked, so this will make bank.

Batman & Robin ---> Batman Begins

 

[Spider-Fan]

Batman & Robin ---> Batman Begins

Batman Begins:

Domestic: $205,343,774 55.1%
+ Foreign: $167,366,241 44.9%
= Worldwide: $372,710,015

That looks like it didn't make huge bank. In fact, that is quite modest. TDK was the giant money maker. Not BB. If ASM is the BB of the Spider-Man series, it will dip in BO by a lot.

 

[Chewy]

Batman & Robin ---> Batman Begins

If ASM makes a similar amount to Batman Begins it would *not* be making insane amounts of money.

 

[chaseter]

Oh Rocketman, burning up his fuse in here, alone.

 

[Infinity9999x]

Batman Begins:

Domestic: $205,343,774 55.1%
+ Foreign: $167,366,241 44.9%
= Worldwide: $372,710,015

That looks like it didn't make huge bank. In fact, that is quite modest. TDK was the giant money maker. Not BB. If ASM is the BB of the Spider-Man series, it will dip in BO by a lot.

Agreed. I'm personally looking forward to this SM movie much more then any of the Raimi installments. Raimi made good films (even SM3 wasn't horrible) but they just weren't what I wanted out of a Spider-man film.

However, one thing to remember is that SM3 was not nearly as poorly received as Batman and Robin was. The general public did not hate it by a long shot. ASM still has an uphill battle. It's going to have to contend with the people who liked the last series who will be ticked they're rebooting, and the people who really didn't like SM3 so they'll stay away.

However, we have to remember that this is still Spider-man. He's a money-making name. If the trailers for the next movie look good, people will show up. It might not be as big as the past movies, but it will still be big.

 

[Prison Mike]

This thread is getting me pumped for 2012.

 

[terry78]

Marc Webb honestly has to reinvent the wheel with this one, because the spectacle of seeing Spider-Man done in live action has already been showcased. The ante has to be upped.

 

[Prison Mike]

Raimi's Spider-man made me believe a man could swing.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

Andrew Lincoln hahahahahaha

This movie won't make 300 domestic and I doubt make 600 worldwide.

The smaller budget was false. It is being reported to be 150+. No way was a Spider-Man movie going to have an 80 million dollar budget.

I thought the budget was 220 million?