2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions)

[Doctor Jones]

It was studio interference yet again.

I would have loved to see his SM4. He walked because he knew he let people down with SM3 and even said he would have creative control again. Yet that wasn't the case. I just don't get Sony with that. He made two great films on his own. I would have loved to have a Lizard and Kraven story myself. I could easily see that. That is ****ing epic. Just imagining how Maguire's Peter would have reacted to that would have been great.

ASM will make a good profit. It won't make as much as the Raimi films, but something that the studio could be happy enough with and it will get a sequel.

 

[Matt]

ASM will at least cross $200 million. That means if Marvel somehow magically got the rights back after 2012, it will be good enough for them to not reboot. Now, if the movie is somehow really bad....I dunno. I hope it's not. But Marvel knows Spidey is their flagship, so they would probably just recast him for Avengers 2 and use that ease him into their own franchise films, maybe? They're not going to not make Spider-Man movies.

I do think it is too early for a full reboot. I mean SM1 told the origin pretty damn well and ASM's biggest problem is having to redo it. I think it would have been wiser to just set in college a few years after he became Spidey (kind of like how B'89 handled the origin) and go from there. But I don't see ASM flopping. Not doing as well as the Raimi films due to it being so recent? Possible, but unless ASM is worse than SM3, I can't imagine it doing bad enough to not warrant a sequel at whatever studio the property is in a few years.

But here's a scary thought: what if Sony really does sell Spidey....to Fox? Imagine that.

I THINK, I'm not positive but I would think that there would be something in Sony licensing agreement that gives Marvel first dibs should Sony try to sell the rights.

 

[kedrell]

^That would make sense. And even if it isn't so, who's got more $ to buy Spidey(back) than Disney? Either way, 90% chance would be Spidey ends up back at the mouse-house.

 

[Doctor Jones]

I hope so. I'd love nothing more for Spider-Man to be back at Marvel. As long as they don't try to put him in the Marvel universe like these past films. He works better solo.

If for whatever reason, after this film comes out and the rights go back to Marvel, hopefully Feige will know to continue on with this film with the same cast and not interfer. I see him doing that.

 

[kedrell]

I think it would depend on how well ASM turns out. As for Spidey being part of the MCU? Of course he'd be in there. But remember that unlike all the Avengers(so far) he's a street level hero who deals with much smaller problems. So he likely doesn't really travel in much of the same circles as guys like Thor, Hulk, Iron Man or even Cap.

 

[Doctor Jones]

I do see him being a part of the MCU, but I do think Feige would let them do their own thing from what they already established and not try to interfere with that.

 

[kedrell]

I agree. Plenty of room for him down on the ground level fighting regular crooks and small time supervillains.

 

[DACrowe]

I hope so. I'd love nothing more for Spider-Man to be back at Marvel. As long as they don't try to put him in the Marvel universe like these past films. He works better solo.

If for whatever reason, after this film comes ot and the rights go back to Marvel, hopefully Feige will know to continue on with this film with the same cast and not interfer. I see him doing that.

I don't want to see him hanging out with Iron Man (gives you flashes of how Quesada butchered the character), but nods like Stark reading the DAily Bugle in a future film or Jonah talking about how he hates superheroes and contrasting Spidey with the Hulk or something would be cool.

 

[Doctor Jones]

I'd be fine with that. Though the references should make sense and not be there for the sake of fan service. It has to be at the right moment. As rare as they may be, if it's done right, it will make it that more special. But that fits Spider-Man for me.

 

[Spider-ManHero12]

Yeah, maybe a few references here and there. But I think Spidey should overall be kept to himself.

 

[lime]

On stranger tides just prove my point about Spider-Man.

If POTC 4 can make 1 billion after sequels that were damed to suck, then The amazing Spider-Man can do it also.

Believe me guys, next year SM will make it big. All the movie needs is one awsome trailer (and I'm sure it will have one) and every fanboy will go see it.

My updated TOP 5 predix for 2012

1. The Dark Knight Rises - 1.2 billion
2. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey - 1.2 billion
3. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn: Part 2 - 1 billion
4. The Amazing Spider-Man - 1 billion
5. The Avengers - 1 billion

And yes, I believe that five movies can reach the 1 billion mark next year.

 

[Boom]

Five movies in one year crossing the billion-dollar mark? Only eight films have done that in the last fourteen years.

No chance in hell.

 

[kedrell]

On stranger tides just prove my point about Spider-Man.

If POTC 4 can make 1 billion after sequels that were damed to suck, then The amazing Spider-Man can do it also.

Believe me guys, next year SM will make it big. All the movie needs is one awsome trailer (and I'm sure it will have one) and every fanboy will go see it.

My updated TOP 5 predix for 2012

1. The Dark Knight Rises - 1.2 billion
2. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey - 1.2 billion
3. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn: Part 2 - 1 billion
4. The Amazing Spider-Man - 1 billion
5. The Avengers - 1 billion

And yes, I believe that five movies can reach the 1 billion mark next year.

The problem with this reasoning is that it presupposes an unlimited source of entertainment $ on the part of the public. Times are tough and these will undoubtedly all impact each other and hinder each other(and they don't even need to be released near one another to have this effect). I'd say they all have 'the potential' to make a billion dollars(except Twilight 5). But many having that potential will almost certainly not translate to them all making it.

Looking at it closer, The Avengers has the best release date, TDKR has the best hype due to it's giant predecessor being not that long ago and The Hobbit has the biggest fanbase and over-all appeal. These 3 are the one's that it's gonna come down to, IMO. ASM is a wild card.

 

[Doctor Jones]

The Hobbit has a better chance of crossing the billion mark than TDKR. TDKR will do a lot in the states, and do good WW, but I don't see it doing a billion. The Avengers won't make a billion either I don't think.

 

[chaseter]

Twilight, Avengers, or Spider-Man will NOT break 1 billion. The last Twilight made $698 million worldwide. No chance in hell that they suddenly find another $300 million. The Avengers won't make a billion just like Spider-Man won't. Spider-Man will get the closest of the three but with it being a reboot and an untested new Ultimate take on the character then it will either do okay or it will do Spider-Man 3 numbers overseas. No way will it beat any of the previous films numbers domestic. TDKR and Hobbit are pretty much lock-ins unless they just absolutely suck.

 

[Doctor Jones]

I actually think Avengers could make more WW than ASM. Although ASM does have a chance of making a lot WW. I never thought of that until now. He has a huge appeal. The question is, will this reboot baffle international audiences? They seem to be more forgiving than we are with this stuff. They seem to eat up more films with visuals. POTC 4 crossed the billion mark WW after the mixed reception of the third film. It effected things here along with the 3D but not WW. Though this is the first time a sudden reboot is happening. So that's on the table.

 

[chaseter]

I think The Avengers will be hurt internationally with all the Americana in it unless the first movie has no country specific villains and they keep the Americana to a minimum.

 

[mclay18]

1. The Dark Knight Rises
2. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
3. The Avengers

People seriously overestimate how much moola ASM and Breaking Dawn will make. ASM is between a rock and a hard place, and inevitably will make less than the preceding three movies. The reboot thing is working against this, not for it.

Breaking Dawn will rake in a lot of money, but fall short of $1B worldwide. Unless the movie appeals to audiences beyond the die-hard fans, I expect a $600-$800M worldwide gross for the final Twilight film.

 

[Doctor Jones]

I think the people here pretty much agree ASM won't be making as much as the other three films.

 

[chaseter]

Only a few crazies think it's going to make as much or more than the last films.

 

[DACrowe]

On stranger tides just prove my point about Spider-Man.

If POTC 4 can make 1 billion after sequels that were damed to suck, then The amazing Spider-Man can do it also.

Believe me guys, next year SM will make it big. All the movie needs is one awsome trailer (and I'm sure it will have one) and every fanboy will go see it.

My updated TOP 5 predix for 2012

1. The Dark Knight Rises - 1.2 billion
2. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey - 1.2 billion
3. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn: Part 2 - 1 billion
4. The Amazing Spider-Man - 1 billion
5. The Avengers - 1 billion

And yes, I believe that five movies can reach the 1 billion mark next year.

TDKR will cross $1 billion WW. Twilight most likely will and in a long-shot/dark horse kind of way, The Avengers might. But I doubt it. ASM and Hobbit have no shot. The hype around LOTR has deflated enough and a Spidey reboot has an uphill battle no matter how good the movie may be.

 

[chaseter]

The first LOTR made nearly $900 worldwide. With ticket prices today then that is very doable.

 

[redfirebird2008]

The Hobbit has a better chance of crossing the billion mark than TDKR. TDKR will do a lot in the states, and do good WW, but I don't see it doing a billion. The Avengers won't make a billion either I don't think.

It will likely make more overseas than domestic. It pretty much has nowhere to go but down in North America, whereas overseas there has been an explosion in a number of markets since 2008. One of these is China, which did not even have a release of TDK because of the Hong Kong sequence. Inception made almost $70m in China.

 

[Spider-Vader]

I do see him being a part of the MCU, but I do think Feige would let them do their own thing from what they already established and not try to interfere with that.

Well, after Avengers it seems that Marvel wants to get into street level heroes. They said they want to movies for Luke Cage, Iron Fist, Moon Knight & Cloak & Dagger, as well as reboot Punisher...again. I think Spidey would fit in well with that crowd.

As for possible 1 billions next year, I think TDKR, Hobbit & possible Avengers would be the most likely candidates. I think Avengers could only cross 1 billion if Cap does Iron Man like numbers. The movie would then have two huge heroes with two popular, but not big enough, heroes.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

1. The Dark Knight Rises
2. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
3. The Avengers

I'd swap out The Avengers for Men In Black 3.

People seriously overestimate how much moola ASM and Breaking Dawn will make. ASM is between a rock and a hard place, and inevitably will make less than the preceding three movies. The reboot thing is working against this, not for it.

That's a bingo.