2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions)

[:eek:]

One movie that seems to be forgotten is the next Ice Age-movie. The last one made almost $900 million worldwide. I think the next can easily beat movies like Avengers and Men in Black worldwide

 

[Jick]

I'd swap out The Avengers for Men In Black 3.

Is MIB3 being hyped at all?
I don't hear anything about it. Just see some set pics here and there. I love the franchise, but I'm not expecting anything yet.

We really need a trailer.

 

[kedrell]

The Avengers has a really good release date and scant competition for 3 weeks until MIB3 comes out. Dark Shadows(horror films historically do poorly in summer....especially May releases - unless they're really just action movies with a horror backdrop like Van Helsing or The Mummy Returns....and DS certainly ISN'T that) & Battleship(are you kidding me?) won't be competition. I could see it holding the #1 spot 3 weekends in a row.

 

[Doctor Jones]

Well, after Avengers it seems that Marvel wants to get into street level heroes. They said they want to movies for Luke Cage, Iron Fist, Moon Knight & Cloak & Dagger, as well as reboot Punisher...again. I think Spidey would fit in well with that crowd.

As for possible 1 billions next year, I think TDKR, Hobbit & possible Avengers would be the most likely candidates. I think Avengers could only cross 1 billion if Cap does Iron Man like numbers. The movie would then have two huge heroes with two popular, but not big enough, heroes.

Thor had a big appeal WW and well as IM. Their WW numbers are six million apart from the other. So they have that going for them when Avengers hits. Cap isn't going to to so great WW but at least it could have the domestic in favor. Avengers financially is looking good though. And Hulk is an all around popular and recognizeable character. Perhaps having him in a film like this and his portrayal could make him more popular with audiences.

 

[Marvin]

With the teasers out, we at least have a taste of the buzz levels that will be hitting next year.

Anyone have confirmation on which effects houses will be working on each film?

Weta tends to only work on films that shoot in their hometowns and they're on LOTR already. ILM is confirmed for Avengers but they usually do 2 or thee a summer.

No clue who's on spidey or bats.

 

[mclay18]

With the teasers out, we at least have a taste of the buzz levels that will be hitting next year.

Anyone have confirmation on which effects houses will be working on each film?

Weta tends to only work on films that shoot in their hometowns and they're on LOTR already. ILM is confirmed for Avengers but they usually do 2 or thee a summer.

No clue who's on spidey or bats.

Sony Pictures Imageworks is working on The Amazing Spider-Man, while Double Negative and BUF will almost certainly do CGI work for TDKR. BUF will also do some work on The Avengers alongside ILM, since Janek Sirrs is the visual effects supervisor.

ILM and SPI are also working on MIB 3.

 

[mclay18]

I'd swap out The Avengers for Men In Black 3.

Really? Will Smith is marketable, but it's a good decade after the previous one (which wasn't well-received at all). It'll coast on fumes like Little Fockers did, but I can't see it doing $1B worldwide.

 

[Marvin]

Shoulda guessed sony would keep the effects in house, alone will probably keep the costs below GL.

Nolan's policy on cg should keep BUF free to work on another gig as well. All I know is Scott Farrar better better win the oscar this year.

 

[matrix_ghost]

Weta tends to only work on films that shoot in their hometowns and they're on LOTR already. ILM is confirmed for Avengers but they usually do 2 or thee a summer.

Not true.
There are several flicks WETA has worked on , that weren't filmed in NZ
Rise of the Planet of the APes
District 9
The Day the Earth stood still
Fantastic FOur RIse of the SIlver Surfer
X-Men the last stand

 

[Marvin]

that's why I said tends, however I thought Xmen 3 was shot over seas.
I thought apes and D9 were too

 

[matrix_ghost]

Out of my head , the only NZ productions WETA has worked on are the LOTR movies , KIng Kong , Avatar , TIn TIn and of course the Hobbit flicks.

Anyway going back to the topic.
ILM is confirmed to work on Avengers.

Sony Imageworks is doing SPider-man ( hey did the previous 3 and they're owned by Columbia/Sony).

Double NEgative will most likeky work on TDKR. THey have worked on BB , TDK and Incpetion.

I dunno about MoS. I'm hoping that ILM will be able to work on that. AVengers and Battleship are the only 2 movies they'll be working on and both come out in May 2012.

 

[chaseter]

MIB III won't best Avengers domestic. Worldwide...idk. MIB II was out forever ago so it may play well in the overseas market.

 

[DarkKnight88]

Don't underestimate the power of Will Smith in a sci-fi blockbuster (unless it's called Wild Wild West).

The Avengers might open big but drop to nothing afterwards. The question will be does the general audience even care? They might go in hoping it's Iron Man 3.

 

[chaseter]

Hancock - $227,946,274
I Am Legend - $256,393,010
The Pursuit of Happyness - $163,566,459
Hitch - $179,495,555
Shark Tale - $160,861,908
I, Robot - $144,801,023
Bad Boys II - $138,608,444
Men in Black II - $190,418,803
Wild Wild West - $113,804,681
Enemy of the State - $111,549,836
Men in Black - $250,690,539
Independence Day - $306,169,268
Bad Boys - $65,807,024

Those are all his big films that he has starred in. Notice only one of his movies has ever topped $300 million. While Will is guaranteed to turn a good profit, he isn't guaranteed to make massively huge amounts of summer cash. He is a good draw but MIB isn't going to even come in third or fourth for the year. That movie will be lucky to place 5th.

TDKR
Hobbit
Avengers
Spider-Man

Those are your top 4 domestic earners for next year. Pixar's Brave, if it's really good, will beat out MIB III. IDK about the overseas market...it's too volatile. They may love MIB or they may hate it. I don't know.

 

[Green Day]

Domestic
The Hobbit 450m
The Dark Knight Rises 430m
The Avengers 375m
Brave 350m
Breaking Dawn part 2 320m

Overseas
The Hobbit 1.05B
Ice Age 4 830m OS
Brave 650m OS
Amazing Spider man 630m
Breaking Dawn 550m

 

[DACrowe]

The Hobbit is not going to beat TDKR in the US market. LOTR will have been dormant a long time (nearly ten years) while TDKR is a highly anticipated sequel to the second most successful domestic release in the last decade (well above all three LOTR films). The Hobbit may win internationally though.

Also, picking Twilight over TASM is a bold....and possibly accurate guess. Time will tell.

 

[terry78]

Twilight will beat Spider-Man. That's not a prediction, it's a mother****ing fact. It's like saying the sun will rise tomorrow.

 

[Venom75]

I'll be seeing quite a few movies next year,but Spidey and Bats are at the top of my list.
I remember at one point the Godzilla reboot was scheduled for 2012 and I was really looking forward to that. But that's obviously not happening.

 

[matrix_ghost]

The Hobbit is not going to beat TDKR in the US market. LOTR will have been dormant a long time (nearly ten years) while TDKR is a highly anticipated sequel to the second most successful domestic release in the last decade (well above all three LOTR films). The Hobbit may win internationally though.
Also, picking Twilight over TASM is a bold....and possibly accurate guess. Time will tell.

May win internationally ?
How about wil win internationally. I do honestly think that Hobbit will be highest grossing movie internationally.
Hell TDK pulled in 468 million outside the states whereas fellowship of the ring made 555 million ..in 2001.
Factor in 3-d ticket prices and you are looking a juggernaut.
Even if Deathly Hallows was the last Potter movie , with 3-d ticket prices it actually made 937 million outside the states.

 

[Bruce Malone]

Twilight will beat Spider-Man. That's not a prediction, it's a mother****ing fact. It's like saying the sun will rise tomorrow.

Unless you're being sarcastic this is based on what?

 

[Liam_H]

Sarcasm or not its pretty good possibility, since we don't know how GA is gonna respond to a reboot spider-man movie so soon. Twilight has a rabid fan base evidenced by its huge OW so its gonna make over $300 million domestically and probably $700 WW.

 

[jmc]

The Hobbit is not going to beat TDKR in the US market. LOTR will have been dormant a long time (nearly ten years) while TDKR is a highly anticipated sequel to the second most successful domestic release in the last decade (well above all three LOTR films). The Hobbit may win internationally though.

Also, picking Twilight over TASM is a bold....and possibly accurate guess. Time will tell.

Tolkien fans dwarf all comics fans combined.

 

[matrix_ghost]

The last twilight movie hit 300 million domestic.
And isn't breaking dawn going to be released in 3-d ?

Look at Potter and the effect 3-d has on the BO.
Not to mention that breaking dawn is anticipated by millions (not me though )

 

[Liam_H]

Nope its not in 3D, surprisingly. I think its too late to convert Part 1 into 3D but certainly they can do it for Part 2 if they want that extra money.

 

[lime]

When I started this thread I said that 2012 might have up to 5 billionaires movies. You all laughed at me.

Well 2011 has 3 billionaires and there is still Twilight 4 and Tintin to come.

So, my updated 2012 TOP 5.

Worldwide:

1. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey - 1.4 billions.
2. The Dark Knight Rises - 1.2 billions.
3. Twilight Breaking Dawn: Part 2 - 1 Billion.
4. Ice Age 4 - 1 billion.
5. The Amazing Spider-Man - 990 millions.