2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions)

[Liam_H]

Worldwide I see the Hobbit coming out on top.

 

[CConn]

Haha, I honestly think Nolan has garnered this infamous rep of being the director that, if you say you don't care for one of his movies you must be a literal moron, or not smart enough to get it.

I'm talking about people in the real word.

Not morons from the Internet like ourselves.

 

[matrix_ghost]

WW Hobbit will own .
Add the fact that the movie is getting a 3-d boost.

Hell look at what 3-d did with Potter.
With the help of IMAX ( 3-d) the Potter movies made around 600 million outside the states. Of course being the last movie certainly helps build hype but still made more then 900 million outside the states.

 

[D'Attitude]

1.) The Dark Knight Rises - $ 1 - $ 1.2 Billion
2.) The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey - $ 900 - $ 1 Billion
3.) The Avengers - $850 - $900 Million
4.) Ice Age: Continental Drift - $800 - $850 Million
5.) The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 - $700 - $800 Million

 

[Zant]

Thats most likely the top five.Ice Age is a beast overseas I can see it making over 700mil in the overseas market alone

 

[Green Day]

1. The Hobbit 1.2B
2. Ice Age 4 970m
3. The Dark Knight Rises 950m
4. Amazing Spider-Man 750m
5. Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn 730m
6. James Bond: Skyfall 725m
7. The Avengers 720m
8. Madagascar 3 670m
9. Brave 650m
10. The Hunger Games 630m

 

[The Morningstar]

TDKR, TAS and Avengers will make at least 600 million.

The Hobbit will make a billion or close enough I think.

Prometheus and Bond with about 500 million.

 

[flickchick85]

Early worldwide predictions:

1. The Dark Knight Rises - $900m- $1.1 billion
2. The Hobbit - $900m- $1.1 billion (these top two could go either way, imo, I just think TDKR will make a tiny bit more at this point)
3. Ice Age 4 - $850-900m
4. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - $750-800m
5. The Avengers - $700-800m
6. Madagascar 3 - $650-700m
7. The Amazing Spider-man - $640-680m
8. Brave - $600-675m
9. James Bond: Skyfall - $585-630m
10. Men in Black 3 - $400-440m
11. The Hunger Games - $380-425m

Prometheus is my big 2012 question mark. I mean, it's MY most anticipated film (tied with, or possibly just behind TDKR) of the year, and I know it has the internet hype. I'm just not sure how that will translate to the general audience. I wouldn't be surprised if it made only $300m worldwide, and I wouldn't be surprised if it made $700m. I just don't don't have a clue on that one.

I don't expect Bourne to do much without Damon, but I could be wrong.

 

[Boom]

This year is going to be absolutely glorious.

 

[dark_b]

what will be interesting is which movie will underperform and bomb. not every movie can be a hit.

 

[Pittman4Two]

Interesting that Superman isn't mentioned.

 

[craigdbfan]

Interesting that Superman isn't mentioned.

That's because it's coming out in 2013. It was pushed back.

 

[:eek:]

Will Box Office Rebound In 2012? Analysts Disagree

11 hours ago

Two veteran media analysts, Anthony Diclemente of Barclays Capital and Eric Handler of Mkm Partners, are predicting a small increase at the domestic box office in 2012 — not as a result of a more exciting film slate attracting more moviegoers but as a result of higher ticket prices. As reported by the Hollywood Reporter, Handler was the more optimistic, predicting 3 percent growth for the year, with a 7-percent boost over last year in the first quarter. Diclemente was less bullish, predicting a 1.5-percent increase. But Btig analyst Richard Greenfield is not so sanguine. “We believe consumers are tiring of expensive, premium-priced movie experiences, particularly when combined with an increasingly unsatisfying exhibition experience,” he wrote. And while moviegoers might still be willing to shell out top dollar for one or two outstanding movies in 3D or IMAX per year, most other movies carrying premium prices will likely be spurned, Greenfield predicted. “We expect movie attendance to fall yet again in 2012,” he wrote. “More importantly, we believe attendance is now in secular decline in the U.S.” [In business-speak, "secular" is defined as a persistent trend.]

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I see The Dark Knight Rises being on top domestically but I still think that it's going to drop from the previous film. Not because it won't be a quality film but because The Joker, who is hugely popular, isn't in it and the previous film had tons of free marketing and the ghoulish seeing a young actor's last performance quality. I'm still seeing something like 450 plus mil after a record opening weekend though because people did love the movie after seeing it regardless of why they went into the theater.

I see the Amazing Spider-Man making money because Spider-Man is a popular character but no where near what the original did. Internationally I wouldn't be surprised if it made over 300mil but domestically I think that it will be lucky to hit 250mil even with 3D tickets.

The Avengers is probably going to be the most over predicted movie of the year. I really only expect like a little over Iron Man numbers domestically. 350mil at most after a massive start. I just feel that the same people who saw all of the films will see this one and that it won't grow much if any new audience.

I'm going to be wrong about something but those are my predictions.

 

[Doctor Jones]

I think the $250 mil for ASM is pretty spot on.

 

[chaseter]

2012: my prediction....are

1. The Avengers
2. The Amazing Spider-Man
3. The Hobbit
4. Men In Black 3
5. The Raid
6. Ghost Rider Vengeance
7. TDKR

TDKR in 7th...yeah no.

 

[Figs]

TDKR in 7th...yeah no.

I couldn't believe my eyes when I saw that he had Ghost Rider above it.

 

[rashad]

My Top Worldwide Grosses Predictions

1) The Hobbit
2) The Dark Knight Rises
3) The Avengers
4) Ice Age: Continental Drift
5) The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2
6) The Amazing Spider-Man
7) Brave
8) Skyfall
9) Men in Black 3

 

[marvelman2006]

1) TDKR
2) Hobbit
3) Avengers
4) Men in black 3 could be the surprise of the year in my opinion
5) Spiderman (Im not sure how this will gage with the general audience, first weekend is critical) also the fact that its a remake so close to the most recent one. You got to figure batman begins came out sometime after the batman and robin bomb and gave people a chance to forget.
6) Brave

 

[marvelman2006]

I see The Dark Knight Rises being on top domestically but I still think that it's going to drop from the previous film. Not because it won't be a quality film but because The Joker, who is hugely popular, isn't in it and the previous film had tons of free marketing and the ghoulish seeing a young actor's last performance quality. I'm still seeing something like 450 plus mil after a record opening weekend though because people did love the movie after seeing it regardless of why they went into the theater.

I see the Amazing Spider-Man making money because Spider-Man is a popular character but no where near what the original did. Internationally I wouldn't be surprised if it made over 300mil but domestically I think that it will be lucky to hit 250mil even with 3D tickets.

The Avengers is probably going to be the most over predicted movie of the year. I really only expect like a little over Iron Man numbers domestically. 350mil at most after a massive start. I just feel that the same people who saw all of the films will see this one and that it won't grow much if any new audience.

I'm going to be wrong about something but those are my predictions.

I love my avengers as much as the next guy but I can really see that happening, some people on other sites are expecting atleast transformers 2 numbers.

 

[jmc]

I love my avengers as much as the next guy but I can really see that happening, some people on other sites are expecting atleast transformers 2 numbers.

Some are even expecting a billion dollars. I cannot for the life of me see how it reaches that mark.

 

[The Morningstar]

It could reach that mark in much the same way Transformers does. A big, loud, SFX laden disaster movie. But with well liked superheroes.

I forsee Marvel marketing it as such. A disaster movie like your ID-4s, your Dark of the Moon's etc. But with Iron Man, Thor, Captain America and Hulk.

That's basically a license to print money right there.

 

[jmc]

It could reach that mark in much the same way Transformers does. A big, loud, SFX laden disaster movie. But with well liked superheroes.

I forsee Marvel marketing it as such. A disaster movie like your ID-4s, your Dark of the Moon's etc. But with Iron Man, Thor, Captain America and Hulk.

That's basically a license to print money right there.

The thing is Transformers is a different beast. Superheroes don't have the same appeal. The only hero that hit the mark only just got there on the back of a perfect storm.

 

[Marvin]

The thing is Transformers is a different beast. Superheroes don't have the same appeal. The only hero that hit the mark only just got there on the back of a perfect storm.

The funny truth is that if Bay were helming said superhero film the storm would indeed be profitable. If he was doing GI Joe this year it would no doubt do TF numbers as well.

 

[bullets]

what will be interesting is which movie will underperform and bomb. not every movie can be a hit.

I'm guessing those will be ASM and Ghost Rider 2. I'm curious to see how Underworld 4 performs.