2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions)

[Punisher Rising]

I wouldn't be surprised if both overperform.

 

[:eek:]

Top 9 worldwide so far:

1. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island $272,6 million
2. The Intouchables $260,5 million
3. Safe House $162,7 million
4. The Vow $153,2 million
5. Underworld Awakening $152,5 million
6. The Secret World of Arrietty $143,5 million
7. Chronicle $105,3 million
8. Let the Bullets Fly $104,3 million
9. Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance $104 million

 

[:eek:]

Boxoffice.com have a $155 million opening weekend for Avengers and $370 million in total domestic gross, and thinks it might even have a chance for a new opening weekend record.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I remember when everyone predicted Iron Man 2 would open with 155mil...

 

[Spider-Fan]

Iron Man 2 did open big, though. I think $155 mil for Avengers opening is possible. Somewhere in that ballpark.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

^It didn't open to 155mil.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Maybe a couple of extremist thought IM2 would break OW records but not most sane people had lower predictions.

Avengers will open bigger than IM2 though.

It's got alot more hype plus 3D.

 

[mclay18]

^It didn't open to 155mil.

He was pointing out that IM2 did open big, just not to $155M. But The Avengers is more than likely to do $140M-$155M. It all depends on how good the movie is -- if it's disappointing like IM2, it'll drop 40% on Saturday and 30% on Sunday. If it's well-received like the first movie, a solid 3.3 multiple is in the cards.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Maybe a couple of extremist thought IM2 would break OW records but not most sane people had lower predictions.

Avengers will open bigger than IM2 though.

It's got alot more hype plus 3D.

155mil wasn't the opening weekend record. And extremist weren't predicting that, almost every one was. And nobody thought that it would go under 130mil.

I'm not saying that The Avengers won't open to that much I'm just saying that you never know. I'm saying that I'm not going to fall into that again, I'm waiting to see what the buzz and reviews are two weeks before it's release.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Not to brag but I predicted 125 m.

http://forums.superherohype.com/showthread.php?t=335615&highlight=iron+man+box+office

But yeah alot people did get carried away.

 

[Iceman]

Avengers should clear IM2's opening weekend by at least $20m. TDKR is obviously going to be massive and could beat TDK. TASM I can't really tell yet.

 

[jmc]

Maybe a couple of extremist thought IM2 would break OW records but not most sane people had lower predictions.

Avengers will open bigger than IM2 though.

It's got alot more hype plus 3D.

Early numbers suggested IM2 was on track to open nearer to TDK. Came up well short. There were some predicting Harry potter 7 part 2 would open to $200 and that came up short. Box office predicting ain't exactly science, that's why I tend not to do it. lol

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Early numbers suggested IM2 was on track to open nearer to TDK. Came up well short. There were some predicting Harry potter 7 part 2 would open to $200 and that came up short. Box office predicting ain't exactly science, that's why I tend not to do it. lol

Oh I've been wrong so many times it's not even funny. I like doing it though.

 

[rayc1971]

He was pointing out that IM2 did open big, just not to $155M. But The Avengers is more than likely to do $140M-$155M. It all depends on how good the movie is -- if it's disappointing like IM2, it'll drop 40% on Saturday and 30% on Sunday. If it's well-received like the first movie, a solid 3.3 multiple is in the cards.

i think you are on point it should hit 150mill first weekend! i dont think spiderman will do that big i say a 100mill since its a reboot! the dark night rises will set a new record i think since its the last one!

 

[rayc1971]

i think it will underperform based on the budget. its true that Marvel was very cheap in the last 3 years. but this looks like a very expensive movie. and right now only we(yes i am also a fanboy) are hyped. i dont see the world going crazy over avengers.

the budget for avengers is 250 mill it should do 350 mill domestic and 800 mil ww the studio will be happy with that and do a sequel!unlike john carter with a 250 mill budget and wont do more than 100 mill domestic!

 

[Iceman]

John Carter is a funny mix of circumstances with a massive budget for a 1st film based on a concept that isn't well known by the general public with a low key actor in the main role. Also a director who has directed great animated films but new to live action and also low name recognition. It's a hell of a lot of risk in a time when Hollywood generally hasn't been taking many risks. Makes it all the more horrible that it's not going to work and keep exec thinking in the stale recycling mode that it's been in for a fair while. (edit: forgot to mention very weak marketing above)

 

[Liam_H]

Disney wanted another Pirates franchise on their hand. They've failed with Tron Legacy, Prince of Persia, and now John Carter. Wouldn't surprise if they kept at it.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

I don't think Disney failed with Prince of Persia necessarily. I'm surprised they're opting out of a sequel though.

 

[Liam_H]

For something that costs $200 million but only $335 million WW take. Yea, they jumped ship on that immediately.

 

[The Morningstar]

Didn't Tron make near enough 500 million?

 

[DoomsdayApex]

Eh, Watchmen and Hulk have sequels approaching, and they preformed similarly to Prince of Persia.

 

[Liam_H]

Nope just $400 million. But the thing is that they were marketing it for like two years. They given it some thought but so far nothing has happened.

There's a TIH sequel happening? Disney's mindset seems to be we want things to do gangbusters or its a bust. I mean they were going to do the Lone Ranger for $200 million budget which just seems absurd until they've scaled it down.

 

[The Morningstar]

Hulk doesn't have a sequel, unless he explodes in popularity in Avengers, which I imagine Marvel is counting on.

And Watchman and Hulk had 150 million dollar budgets, not 200 million.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

Didn't Tron make near enough 500 million?

400 million, but that's still a profit, in my opinion.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

Hulk doesn't have a sequel, unless he explodes in popularity in Avengers, which I imagine Marvel is counting on.

And Watchman and Hulk had 150 million dollar budgets, not 200 million.

Which wouldn't shock me. The rumors flying around are indicating that a Hulk film will likely appear after The Avengers.

And yet Watchmen's numbers do not impress. The budget wasn't 200 million but the film still did not surpass that number.