2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions)

[Liam_H]

Mark the date.

I don't think anyone would've held you to that promise if you hadn't kept bringing it up but props to you for going through with this. And at least its a super flying pig.

 

[chaseter]

I think The Hobbit will match it, at the very least.

I don't. Hobbit will do good but people aren't rabid over that movie like they are Hunger Games. The Hobbit lacks the teenage market and especially the girl market. Plus The Hobbit isn't a currently popular book like Harry Potter was and Twilight. Now I think Hobbit will do good in the long run but it won't be a domestic opening weekend smash. TDKR is about the only movie that has the change at besting Hunger Games' opening weekend this year. I am totally shocked Hunger Games did what it did in March of all months. Pretty epic.

 

[rayc1971]

No...Avengers won't best this opening weekend. The only movie that has a shot at that is TDKR and that will be a close one.

Going to see Hunger Games in about an hour.

i think your wrong avengers is the first super team up movie people have been waiting for this type of comic book film. avengers could hit 180 first weekend and dark night rises 180 to 200mill.

 

[chaseter]

i think your wrong avengers is the first super team up movie people have been waiting for this type of comic book film. avengers could hit 180 first weekend and dark night rises 180 to 200mill.

Avenger will not beat Harry Potter opening weekend. You can mark my words on that. I doubt Avengers will break top 3 opening weekend records. It will do good but it isn't going to be the mega hit of the year.

 

[The Morningstar]

Don't be silly. Avengers will open the same as IM2 or at best the TF movies. I think TDKR will approach 150 million.

 

[Boom]

I don't. Hobbit will do good but people aren't rabid over that movie like they are Hunger Games.

That's almost impossible to gauge at this point, considering it doesn't come out until December and marketing hasn't begun in earnest.

The Hobbit lacks the teenage market and especially the girl market.

The girl market I can understand, but how does it not cater to teenagers ?

Plus The Hobbit isn't a currently popular book like Harry Potter was and Twilight.

It has still sold over 100 million copies - making it one of the best-selling books of all time. There is a very strong, well-established fanbase.

 

[The Morningstar]

The LOTR brand will always be popular. Especially after the movies. The Hobbit is a new LOTR film after nearly a decade wait, it'll be huge.

 

[rayc1971]

Don't be silly. Avengers will open the same as IM2 or at best the TF movies. I think TDKR will approach 150 million.

you do know avengers is tracking at 155 already? the tdk did 158 you dont think the last one with nolan and bale will top that?

 

[rayc1971]

iron man 2 did 128mill avengers beats that easy i think hobbit will be in the mix. i think tdkr will be the first 200mill opening weekend record.

 

[Boom]

No way TDKR makes $200 million its opening weekend.

 

[Shifty]

The Hobbit could have a huge opening weekend too.

Depends on the running time. If it is 3 hours or more like the previous trilogy than that definitely cuts down the number of showings in a busy movie season and would make it nearly impossible to top The Hunger Games for opening weekend.

It would do well for Thursday night-Midnight screenings (if they do Thursdays) but The Hunger Games and TDK were 2h22m and 2h30m so that extra 30-40m or more adds up throughout the day. Both films could fit in one more screening a day than The Hobbit.

At 3 hours and 20m, ROTK did $72 million for their opening weekend. So maybe expect a $100 million opening for The Hobbit and small drops each weekend for a big haul.

 

[Boom]

Depends on the running time. If it is 3 hours or more like the previous trilogy than that definitely cuts down the number of showings in a busy movie season and would make it nearly impossible to top The Hunger Games for opening weekend.

It would do well for Thursday night-Midnight screenings (if they do Thursdays) but The Hunger Games and TDK were 2h22m and 2h30m so that extra 30-40m or more adds up throughout the day. Both films could fit in one more screening a day than The Hobbit.

At 3 hours and 20m, ROTK did $72 million for their opening weekend. So maybe expect a $100 million opening for The Hobbit and small drops each weekend for a big haul.

Good point.

In all honestly, there is no need for The Hobbit to be three hours long, especially since they've already divided the book up into two films. So hopefully Peter Jackson has exercised some self restraint in that regard.

 

[Project862006]

At least it's a film worthy of such an opening. And not a pair of 3D glasses in sight. Restores my faith somewhat.

nice avatart:

 

[rayc1971]

No way TDKR makes $200 million its opening weekend.

im just saying its the one movie i can see hitting the 200mill mark. doesnt mean it will factor in its bale and nolans last one.

 

[Liam_H]

I don't expect The Hobbit to open huge but it will have great legs in the Holiday season like all three of the previous movies did. At the end it will easily beat out a majority of the movies this year in total. That's all assuming the movie is as good as the previous three that is.

 

[rayc1971]

I don't expect The Hobbit to open huge but it will have great legs in the Holiday season like all three of the previous movies did. At the end it will easily beat out a majority of the movies this year in total. That's all assuming the movie is as good as the previous three that is.

yeah it will have the best legs out of all these blockbusters it wont open huge if its 3 hrs cause it wont have enough showtimes.

 

[Liam_H]

I doubt running time effects a movie that much. If the demand is there a theater will add more showings.

 

[terry78]

TDKR meets TDK's gross only by word of mouth. There is no really big hook with this one like Joker except with it being the ending of the Bat Trilogy and Nolan keeping a lot of **** under wraps.

 

[rayc1971]

I doubt running time effects a movie that much. If the demand is there a theater will add more showings.

it does if its 3 hrs thats one less showing its been proven true.

 

[redhawk23]

TDKR meets TDK's gross only by word of mouth. There is no really big hook with this one like Joker except with it being the ending of the Bat Trilogy and Nolan keeping a lot of **** under wraps.

Word of mouth will definitely be a factor but even non batfans are hyped for this movie, and it will only be more so once the marketing really starts up in May or so.

Also at this point Nolan himself is a pretty big draw. Inception, as a potentially as offputting as it coud have been and with no brand to back it up pulled in over 800 million in the long run. TDKR will have no problem at all matching or beating TDK's 1.1 million.

 

[matrix_ghost]

yeah it will have the best legs out of all these blockbusters it wont open huge if its 3 hrs cause it wont have enough showtimes.

IMAX movies have a maximum running time of 2 hrs and 45 min.

 

[ThePowerCosmic]

I don't expect The Hobbit to open huge but it will have great legs in the Holiday season like all three of the previous movies did. At the end it will easily beat out a majority of the movies this year in total. That's all assuming the movie is as good as the previous three that is.

Why don't you expect The Hobbit to have a huge opening?

 

[Tacit Ronin]

Even if Avengers sells the same number of tickets as IM2 it'll still approach 150 million thanks to inflation and 3D.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

Avenger will not beat Harry Potter opening weekend.

The Dark Knight Rises will get close.

 

[jmc]

$155 million? I think it's safe to say that's blown everyone's expectations out of the water. There's not going to be to many film that beat that number this year. The question is what legs will it have, I cannot for the life of me see this film not getting good WOM and competition for the next couple of weeks is thin.