2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions)

[Iceman]

Worldwide, Spidey 3 made more than the first two. Overseas audiences definitely weren't as critical as American viewers. The same could be said about Pirates 4 and those Ice Age films. That's the challenge in predicting box office grosses these days. International audiences are no longer on the same page as us. Third world countries are getting brand new theaters, so they are not as picky as us. For them, huge digital screens and big comfy chairs are a new thing. So, they'll happily watch whatever crap Hollywood throws their way. I mean, even John Carter is doing decent business overseas.

Yep, sequels and visually impressive films do well abroad.

 

[ALP]

Worldwide, Spidey 3 made more than the first two. Overseas audiences definitely weren't as critical as American viewers. The same could be said about Pirates 4 and those Ice Age films. That's the challenge in predicting box office grosses these days. International audiences are no longer on the same page as us. Third world countries are getting brand new theaters, so they are not as picky as us. For them, huge digital screens and big comfy chairs are a new thing. So, they'll happily watch whatever crap Hollywood throws their way. I mean, even John Carter is doing decent business overseas.

Strangely enough, Batman has never been the biggest brand internationally. In America, TDK remains the highest grossing film of the decade outside of Avatar but internationally, tons of films have done better than TDK including Transformers 3, Spider-Man 3, the past several Pirates films, Harry Potter films, even Indiana Jones 4 did slightly better overseas than TDK.

In fact, TDK is the only blockbuster I can think of period that did better in North America than all international countries combined. The Batman brand is mammoth in America but does average blockbuster-wise numbers everywhere else. And it's not anything new either. In 1989, Batman broke all American box office records but was easily defeated by Indiana Jones internationally.

 

[DACrowe]

In TDK's case it is much more plot driven than movies like TF3 or SM3. But more broadly, the Batman character is very dark and brooding. Pirates, Spidey, even the awful Transformer movies are bright, shiny and have senses of humor with lots of spectacle. SM3 was the most spectacular looking of the three Spideys and did BOFFO overseas. People weren't watching Avatar for the story. It was visual dazzle that doesn't need subtitles to tell you what's going on. That's why they're so popular around the world.

 

[Iceman]

Strangely enough, Batman has never been the biggest brand internationally. In America, TDK remains the highest grossing film of the decade outside of Avatar but internationally, tons of films have done better than TDK including Transformers 3, Spider-Man 3, the past several Pirates film, Harry Potter films, even Indiana Jones 4 did slightly better overseas than TDK.

In fact, TDK is the only blockbuster I can think of period that did better in North America than all international countries combined. The Batman brand is mammoth in America but does average blockbuster-wise numbers everywhere else.

Comic films & their properties (also including stuff like Transformers) are much more well known in US than overseas. Even in the UK which is probably a hell of a lot closer than many other countries, I find comics to be a subject most people know hardly anything about.

At the international BO they tend to do smaller numbers than you'd expect from comparable blockbusters but this often gets better with sequels. Again impressive visuals seem to be more important than film quality. Lot of potential for comic films to enhance their returns in future though!

 

[ALP]

Yeah, I was really stunned by the mega gap between the American and international numbers with Pirates 4.

Pirates 4 BARELY made $240 million in America, and that was with bloated IMAX 3D prices whereas overseas it did over $800M. Insane. It's clear America has gotten tired of Jack Sparrow.

Good point DACrowe about plotting. Spectacle and action with less plot will do well in non-English speaking countries.

 

[mclay18]

The Avengers Dark Knighr Rises they dont have to make a billion dollars to be considered great I feel like thats really want some people want to validate them has good movies.

I wasn't saying that. I'm hoping to love both movies for what they are, not how much they'll make. But if they make more than expected, at least they've earned it.

 

[Bim]

In TDK's case it is much more plot driven than movies like TF3 or SM3. But more broadly, the Batman character is very dark and brooding. Pirates, Spidey, even the awful Transformer movies are bright, shiny and have senses of humor with lots of spectacle. SM3 was the most spectacular looking of the three Spideys and did BOFFO overseas. People weren't watching Avatar for the story. It was visual dazzle that doesn't need subtitles to tell you what's going on. That's why they're so popular around the world.

What? . Sorry, but i'm one of those worldwide audiences and i found the story engaging. Yes, it was visually rich but that wasnt what made me go back and see it several times. I dont go for visual dazzle alone, it must have some substance in order to get me to go to the cinema, not to mention watch a movie several times. Maybe for others your statement works, but i dont think you should generalize. Not everyone goes to see explosions, light-hearted and funny movies exclusively. In fact in my country there's a rising in watching independent, smaller films, which is awesome cause now i dont have to be stuck with Hollywood crap all the time. Oh, and i dont need subtitles , but i think for Bane they might come in handy with TDKR lol. I really hope that's not an issue for non english speaking audiences when the movie comes out.

I dont have an answer as to why the Batman movies dont tend to do as well internationally when compared to North America though... maybe we just dont believe in superheroes?

 

[dark_b]

a movie can not make 2 billions only because of 3D and CGI. small procent had to be because they liked the story

 

[ALP]

a movie can not make 2 billions only because of 3D and CGI. small procent had to be because they liked the story

Pirates 4 made 1 Billion because of 3D, CGI, and Johnny Depp jumping about. I don't think anyone on the planet clamored for the story, yet there it is. A billion dollar hit. Oh wait, Transformers 3 as well. Now that was captivating storytelling

I knew Transformers 3 was going to be bad, my friend drug me to see it after I swore it would suck. I hate that. I tell him I will kill him if he drags me to see another Michael bay movie. Never again.

 

[terry78]

Supeheroes are just something we all grew up with as symbols of good and what not. I think other cultures may find them childish or are too cynical to care about them.

 

[DACrowe]

What? . Sorry, but i'm one of those worldwide audiences and i found the story engaging. Yes, it was visually rich but that wasnt what made me go back and see it several times. I dont go for visual dazzle alone, it must have some substance in order to get me to go to the cinema, not to mention watch a movie several times. Maybe for others your statement works, but i dont think you should generalize. Not everyone goes to see explosions, light-hearted and funny movies exclusively. In fact in my country there's a rising in watching independent, smaller films, which is awesome cause now i dont have to be stuck with Hollywood crap all the time. Oh, and i dont need subtitles , but i think for Bane they might come in handy with TDKR lol. I really hope that's not an issue for non english speaking audiences when the movie comes out.

I dont have an answer as to why the Batman movies dont tend to do as well internationally when compared to North America though... maybe we just dont believe in superheroes?

Except y'all love Spider-Man, Harry Potter, Jack Sparrow and Transformers.

I'm not saying all only go for the SFX, but there is no denying the movies that do the best WW are the ones that are CGI extravaganzas with tons of spectacle and are very bright and colorful. Not everyone goes for just the visuals, but if you don't speak English or like subtitles, watching Spider-Man 3 or Pirates of the Caribbean 25 ( ) can be more entertaining and easier to follow than something like The Social Network or even (more broadly) Inception.

The brighter blockbusters with huge special effects do better than the ones that are not.

 

[The Morningstar]

In TDK's case it is much more plot driven than movies like TF3 or SM3. But more broadly, the Batman character is very dark and brooding. Pirates, Spidey, even the awful Transformer movies are bright, shiny and have senses of humor with lots of spectacle. SM3 was the most spectacular looking of the three Spideys and did BOFFO overseas. People weren't watching Avatar for the story. It was visual dazzle that doesn't need subtitles to tell you what's going on. That's why they're so popular around the world.

TDK didn't have any subtleties. It was about as subtle as a .50 cal machine gun.

I think TDK made more in America simply because superheroes are more of an American thing. Batman in particular has a massive American fan base, one that is widely considered the most rabid amongst all fanboys. You get fanatics going to see the film 20 times dressed as the Joker or Batman. That's why it made more money.

 

[Selim844]

The Avengers: $145m - $340m - $770m
The Dark Knight Rises: $165m - $430m - $1020m
The Hobbit: $110m - $410m - $1270m

 

[DACrowe]

TDK didn't have any subtleties. It was about as subtle as a .50 cal machine gun.

And yet that comes off as downright Lynchian compared to every other superhero movie ever made, Transformers, Pirates, etc.

And it is still dialogue heavy and more plot driven than most summer movies. So much so, if you don't know English, it can become a chore to watch.

 

[The Morningstar]

Fair point. I find it a chore to watch and i do speak English

 

[Bim]

Except y'all love Spider-Man, Harry Potter, Jack Sparrow and Transformers.

You're barking up the wrong tree, the only one of those i saw on the big screen was Pirates 1 lol. But i dont think language is a barrier though, since some movies (especially the ones aimed at younger audiences) you can see dubbed. Man, talk about a horrible experience . I'd rather watch a movie with subtitles if i dont understand the language; i hate dubbed films!

Maybe a movie with more universal themes/stories might be the ones doing better WW?

I think TDK made more in America simply because superheroes are more of an American thing. Batman in particular has a massive American fan base, one that is widely considered the most rabid amongst all fanboys. You get fanatics going to see the film 20 times dressed as the Joker or Batman. That's why it made more money.

Yeah, i think you're on to something here. The only franchise where i've seen fans dress up here was with Star Wars. With others i dont see the same devotion.

I'm really curious to see what happens this summer with TDKR and The Avengers though . I do think those are highly anticipated and will do extremely well.

 

[Iceman]

Yeah, I was really stunned by the mega gap between the American and international numbers with Pirates 4.

Pirates 4 BARELY made $240 million in America, and that was with bloated IMAX 3D prices whereas overseas it did over $800M. Insane. It's clear America has gotten tired of Jack Sparrow.

Good point DACrowe about plotting. Spectacle and action with less plot will do well in non-English speaking countries.

The "getting-tired" effect that the US has with bloated sequels or cookie cutter disaster films doesn't seem to work in those countries. t:

I wonder how long you could keep making money internationally out of something that is well and truly done to death?!! If you took any film performing poorly overseas, added earthquakes, Johnny Depp, CGI, explosions & 3D and pretended it was the third in a trilogy you may be able to solve the problem lol.

Supeheroes are just something we all grew up with as symbols of good and what not. I think other cultures may find them childish or are too cynical to care about them.

That and they just don't know about them aside from the most famous ones....Supes, Bats, Spidey, Hulk, WW, Wolverine & the ones that have some fame from other areas (eg Thor, Iceman). Massive names like Green Lantern & Iron Man for example...in my whole life I'd never seen them referenced in UK based media before their films came out.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I'm a little surprised at how relatively low the Hunger Games international gross is. I mean it's not terrible but unless it has great legs it's not going to do anything special. I mean it's pretty much on the same level as Twilight and that film only grossed 199mil internationally.

 

[Call Me Darkman]

Mindless Blockbusters do well overseas because people want escapist entertainment. We live comfortable in America, even with the current recession. So, they're more willing to watch silly stuff like Transformers instead of "white people problem" films like Social Network. Think of 1930s America, during the Depression. The most popular movies were comedies, musicals, and gangster tales. They had no desire to watch anything that reflected their everyday lives.

 

[DACrowe]

I'm a little surprised at how relatively low the Hunger Games international gross is. I mean it's not terrible but unless it has great legs it's not going to do anything special. I mean it's pretty much on the same level as Twilight and that film only grossed 199mil internationally.

I haven't seen it, but I understand it actually has a plot (a pretty good one too) and appears to have little big-CGI spectacle. I don't think it will perform as well overseas as say Pirates 4, Spidey 3, Transformers, etc.

Just a guess.

 

[Call Me Darkman]

Hunger Games hasn't opened in Asia or major European markets like UK, France, and Italy. That's why it only grossed $59 million this weekend.

 

[Bim]

I'm a little surprised at how relatively low the Hunger Games international gross is. I mean it's not terrible but unless it has great legs it's not going to do anything special. I mean it's pretty much on the same level as Twilight and that film only grossed 199mil internationally.

I personally tend to avoid movies opening weekend unless i'm really fanatic about them lol, i hate big crowds full of annoying people. It opened here and i plan on going this week, so i shall be making my contribution soon t:

 

[Iceman]

I haven't seen it, but I understand it actually has a plot (a pretty good one too) and appears to have little big-CGI spectacle. I don't think it will perform as well overseas as say Pirates 4, Spidey 3, Transformers, etc.

Just a guess.

Yeah, good story & very light action after a lengthy setup. Falls in line with what everyone is saying above about which kinds of films do better abroad.

 

[cherokeesam]

That and they just don't know about them aside from the most famous ones....Supes, Bats, Spidey, Hulk, WW, Wolverine & the ones that have some fame from other areas (eg Thor, Iceman). Massive names like Green Lantern & Iron Man for example...in my whole life I'd never seen them referenced in UK based media before their films came out.

Do they even have comic-book conventions in Europe or Asia? I know Marvel and DC have tried vainly to wake up indifferent overseas audiences for decades by trying stunts like Justice League International and Excalibur and Hero Team Six (or whatever that Japanese group was) and all the Captain Planet/One World globalist kids that the X-Men keep spinning off....

....but I think it's pretty clear that the superhero genre belongs to America, almost to the point of exclusivity. That's why it's surprising when *any* superhero film can get more than 50% of its take from outside the US. (Such as Thor.)

 

[CConn]

You people who avoid the crowds don't know what you're missing.

There's nothing like a midnight showing day of release with your closest 10 friends all jacked up on Twizzlers and Mountain Dew.