2016 Primaries and Caucuses Thread

[Marvolo]

I more like the "Can't Stump the Trump" youtube vids. I can't tell if that channel's for Trump or satirizing him, but the Trump/Jeb! narrative is hilarious.

Anyway, to the thread topic: Is there something of significance I'm missing in Bernie's Michigan victory? Its very polarizing on the interwebs - some are hailing it as a great stride, others see it as a very minor gain. I'm not sure which of these sides has the right of it.

What am I missing?

Polls I saw prior to the primary had Hillary ahead by about 20%. Bernie winning was surprising, but Hillary still received 54 delegates from Michigan, and she ended up ending the night with more delegates than Bernie. So it wasnt much of a victory for Bernie. I guess people are thinking this could be an indication that he could win in Ohio, NC, Florida etc.

 

[CaptainWagner]

Boy is Rubio crashing hard...

Hopefully Kasich can pull out a win in Ohio, they say that could prevent anyone from being the "automatic nominee".

 

[pr0xyt0xin]

Polls I saw prior to the primary had Hillary ahead by about 20%. Bernie winning was surprising, but Hillary still received 54 delegates from Michigan, and she ended up ending the night with more delegates than Bernie. So it wasnt much of a victory for Bernie. I guess people are thinking this could be an indication that he could win in Ohio, NC, Florida etc.

And for that matter CA. Which, I'll just say I'm seeing a lot of Bernie bumper stickers these days. :P

The only other thing I'd say is worth noting is she has officially run out of deep southern states. Florida/NC/Kentucky are debatable, but they are all battlegrounds for them. No way are those in the bag for her.

 

[TheComicbookKid]

edit: ^Ha. You beat me by a minute.

Polls I saw prior to the primary had Hillary ahead by about 20%. Bernie winning was surprising, but Hillary still received 54 delegates from Michigan, and she ended up ending the night with more delegates than Bernie. So it wasnt much of a victory for Bernie. I guess people are thinking this could be an indication that he could win in Ohio, NC, Florida etc.

I used to live in Charlotte and there are a lot of northeastern transplants there so it's possible he could make it close. I don't know about Raleigh-Durham.

As long as he doesn't get blown away in Florida, how many more southern states does she have to rack up blow away victories? I don't think it's enough to not drag this out.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Polls I saw prior to the primary had Hillary ahead by about 20%. Bernie winning was surprising, but Hillary still received 54 delegates from Michigan, and she ended up ending the night with more delegates than Bernie. So it wasnt much of a victory for Bernie. I guess people are thinking this could be an indication that he could win in Ohio, NC, Florida etc.

The polls were historically wrong. That's what is giving me pause. If they were so horrendously wrong in Michigan, it has me doubting them elsewhere, especially in Ohio. We will know next Tuesday. If he sweeps those states, he has a chance. If he doesn't, then Clinton is going to win the nomination. But after Michigan, I'm not about to predict which of those outcomes it will be.

Right now, all we know is that he has done enough to survive another week.

 

[summerteeth]

And for that matter CA. Which, I'll just say I'm seeing a lot of Bernie bumper stickers these days. :P

The only other thing I'd say is worth noting is she has officially run out of deep southern states. Florida/NC/Kentucky are debatable, but they are all battlegrounds for them. No way are those in the bag for her.

It's not even going to get to California. The delegates are awarded proportionally, Hillary literally could get 30% of the vote in each state from here on out and reach the delegate count before California even votes.

 

[craigdbfan]

That's assuming the FBI doesn't chain her up before it's all done. Bernie might be the Democratic nominee by default.

 

[SV Fan]

That's assuming the FBI doesn't chain her up before it's all done. Bernie might be the Democratic nominee by default.

My guess is if Hillary for some reason has to Drop out, Biden will go to the convention and try get most of her delegates

 

[Lily Adler]

She will not get indicted even if the FBI recommended it. Yes I'm pessimistic.

 

[summerteeth]

My guess is if Hillary for some reason has to Drop out, Biden will go to the convention and try get most of her delegates

Exactly, under the very unlikely scenario that Hillary is indicted Biden will step in and if that's the case I will actually vote Democrat if Cruz or Trump is the Republican nominee.

 

[Unbreakable Lex]

I might place a prop bet on Biden v Romney: Dawn of no democracy

 

[Lily Adler]

Then third party will be a much more viable option, and I think Biden is okay (f* bomb and all).

 

[SV Fan]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-contest-denying-delegates-to-cruz-and-trump/

Uncommitted GOP strategists win Virgin Islands contest, denying delegates to Cruz and Trump

Six delegates were up for grabs in the U.S. Virgin Islands on Thursday. None of them went to one of the four Republican candidates still running for president. In a surprise that sneaked up on every campaign, Republican strategists who were uncommitted to any candidate swept the contest, led by the (formerly) northern Michigan-based strategist John Yob and his wife.


“We have been coming to the Virgin Islands for a very long time and last year finally made it our home,” said Yob in a triumphant Friday morning statement. “Our children absolutely love their school and we are thankful to the vast majority of Virgin Islanders who have welcomed us to the community. It is important to encourage more families and job creators to travel to the Virgin Islands, experience paradise, and consider making it your home as well!”


It wasn’t as if Republican candidates ignored this vote. Several campaigns made pushes into the Virgin Islands and Guam, territories that send delegations to the national convention. Rafael Cruz, the pastor father of Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.), stumped in the Virgin Islands to win over voters.

 

[Clark-Kent]

I guess that counts as a win
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/201...ashington-dc-caucus-nbc-news-projects-n537361

 

[SV Fan]

I guess that counts as a win
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/201...ashington-dc-caucus-nbc-news-projects-n537361

Rubio really has a bad group of states to brag about

Minnesota(the only State that rejected Reagan twice) and 2 places that I am guessing will be viewed more negatively by the Republican base(Puerto Rico and Washington DC).

It should be noted Wyoming had some weird semi primary where they awarded some but not all their delegates(he won 9, Trump and Rubio won 1 each)

 

[Victarion]

How is Florida looking for Ruboto? He looked pretty rough on the last interview where he called out Trump for the riots.

 

[Kelly]

How is Florida looking for Ruboto? He looked pretty rough on the last interview where he called out Trump for the riots.

He's still loosing there, in most polls by double digits.

 

[hippie_hunter]

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump win in the Northern Mariana Islands by overwhelming margins.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Both campaigns could be pretty much over today. If Trump can win Ohio, it would be very tough to stop him from getting the majority of delegates. It will be difficult already if he can win Florida, which seems likely. For the Democrats, the key state is Florida. If Sanders gets stomped here, Clinton will be in the neighborhood of 300 pledged delegates ahead even if Sanders wins three states tonight and be virtually impossible to catch.

 

[Taarna]

Rubio really has a bad group of states to brag about

Minnesota(the only State that rejected Reagan twice) and 2 places that I am guessing will be viewed more negatively by the Republican base(Puerto Rico and Washington DC).

It should be noted Wyoming had some weird semi primary where they awarded some but not all their delegates(he won 9, Trump and Rubio won 1 each)

Rubio has damaged his career by attcking Trump.

He's getting blown out in his home state and Trump aired a add showing Marco doesn't even show up to vote in the senate and has misused travel funds.

 

[Kelly]

Rubio is done...he has been done for awhile.

 

[hippie_hunter]

CNN is reporting that the Trump campaign thinks that they will lose Ohio.

 

[hippie_hunter]

Exit polls are showing a really bad night for Rubio and Sanders so far.

 

[hippie_hunter]

Trump has declared victory in Florida on Twitter.

 

[hippie_hunter]

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton win Florida.