http://forums.superherohype.com/showthread.php?t=349499
This is the first page of the 84th Academy Award thread. Look at some of the front runners being called at this time last year:
Contagion, J. Edgar, The Beaver, and We Bought a Zoo are brought up for best picture. Some of the best acting stand outs were Ryan Gosling, Mel Gibson (Hollywood will never forgive him), Elizabeth Olsen and Kirsten Dunst.
Oh, and there is not one single mention of The Artist until page 8 (which wasn't reached until 6 months after the thread was started).
My point is, it is almost impossible to predict these at this point in the game. There are always a couple of small art house movies or under the radar foreign films that no one even hears about until November and always rake in a few awards. Plus you never know when a big Oscar bait movie will crash and bomb critically like J. Edgar or Incredibly Loud and Extremely Close.