Ant-Man and The Wasp Ant-Man and the Wasp - Box Office Discussion

[Hammer!]

Cinemascores are pretty bizarre...

 

[BaronZemo]

I think the biggest "problem" moving forward is they've always had the good press of having substantially bigger profit intake with their sequels this is the first that might break even with the last entry. Disney doesn't want that "negative" press so hopefully this film has good legs.

There won't be a negative press no matter how much you wish for it.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

For those asking about remaining OS release dates, these are per IMDb.

India 13 July 2018
Nepal 13 July 2018 (Kathmandu)
Belgium 18 July 2018
France 18 July 2018
Netherlands 18 July 2018
Germany 26 July 2018
Hungary 26 July 2018
UK 3 August 2018
Ireland 3 August 2018
Poland 3 August 2018
Italy 14 August 2018
Portugal 15 August 2018
Japan 31 August 2018

Not sure if it has an official China release date yet, but China is in a foreign film blackout period this month, so sometime in August seems to be the earliest.

 

[8ulk87]

$600M would already be 3.7x its production budget. There is absolutely no way it needs that much just to get in the black.

No it doesnt but the cost of the movie is 165 mil + ~50 mil for marketing.

Studios get roughly half the amount from the boxoffice total earnings.

Ant-man 2 needs to make 400-440 mil WW to break even which it will do.

 

[iEquinox]

No it doesnt but the cost of the movie is 165 mil + ~50 mil for marketing.

Studios get roughly half the amount from the boxoffice total earnings.

Ant-man 2 needs to make 400-440 mil WW to break even which it will do.

Production budget is $162M according to deadline, not $165M+. And P&A will be over $100M, not just $50M. But yeah, $400M sounds a lot more reasonable for the break even point.

If your calculation of the break even point is just 2*(165+50), then you're forgetting to account for a ton of things. Total cost should end up more like $350-400M after including participations, overhead, interest, video costs, and residuals and off the tops. Then you also have to consider the income from ancillaries(TV/Streaming rights and Home Entertainment sales), which generally adds roughly the same amount of income as the box office does.

If you use that rule of thumb that the studio gets half of the box office earnings(can be further refined by looking at the DOM/OS/China split), then $400M at the box office gets the studio $200M net income, and you can expect close to $200M more from ancillaries. So with total costs $350-400M, $400M worldwide should be enough to break even.

Of course, only breaking even after ancillaries would not be a good result. If they don't make any profits after investing up to $400M, they may as well have used that money to play the stock market instead. So it'll need more than that $400M to be considered successful. Thankfully that's guaranteed to happen and it's projected to make $100M in net profits in the end, which is definitely worthwile.

 

[Jh7058622]

There won't be a negative press no matter how much you wish for it.

I don't want this film to do badly. It just isn't doing as well as some were trying to sensationalize it to be mostly the trades it's opening day not realizing it would be front loaded. Leaving it in a vulnerable position moving forward.

It'd actually be the fourth time an MCU sequel's profit isn't as high as the it was for its predecessor, not the first time. And it still remains to be seen whether that'll actually be the case. It could very well still end up turning a bigger profit than the first one did.

Either way, they'll get plenty of good press with it making more at the box office than the first one did. The press usually doesn't talk that much about the actual profits, unless a movie is losing money. And even if they talked more about profits, making a profit as big as the first one is not "negative press" at all.

That last statement i just made is why I think this is a bit different as it is the lowest OW for a sequel so they aren't able to take a victory lap in the face of all their over performers this year. It's a different ball game especially after Solo you don't want people twisting a narrative of franchise fatigue.

 

[Spider-Fan]

There is no argument for franchise fatigue with the MCU. If A&W tops out at like 600, we still had 2 MCU films reach the billion dollar club, and 1 of which reached the 2 billion dollar club. The idea of franchise fatigue just because A&W didn't get as much of a sequel bump is ludicrous.

 

[Jh7058622]

There is no argument for franchise fatigue with the MCU. If A&W tops out at like 600, we still had 2 MCU films reach the billion dollar club, and 1 of which reached the 2 billion dollar club. The idea of franchise fatigue just because A&W didn't get as much of a sequel bump is ludicrous.

No it's that compound with Solo and Cenima Score being on the lower end. It's not good PR.

Also even Deadpool with all it's goodwill from the last film underperformed. I'm not saying there's credence to the claim just that I know how these things work.

 

[Spider-Fan]

No it's that compound with Solo and Cenima Score being on the lower end. It's not good PR.

Also even Deadpool with all it's goodwill from the last film underperformed. I'm not saying there's credence to the claim just that I know how these things work.

A- is a bad Cinemascore?

Also Solo has nothing to do with A&W. Different types of movies, franchises, etc. Star Wars is not a CBM, so it flopping means exactly nothing to the issue of CBM Franchise Fatigue. I have read ample articles on the BO receipts, and they're basically all positive. So where is all this bad PR you're eluding to?

 

[Ozbridge]

No it's that compound with Solo and Cenima Score being on the lower end.

Unless it's A+ or B (or lower) Cinema Score is useless.

 

[Detective Conan]

Marvel is still in much healthier shape than the Star Wars franchise is; objectively speaking. Ant-Man & the Wasp will be the lowest grossing film Marvel will release this year(but that was always going to be the case).

 

[C. Lee]

Taking my daughter to see it again in a half hour....so add a few more dollars to the BO. t:

 

[Jh7058622]

A- is a bad Cinemascore?

Also Solo has nothing to do with A&W. Different types of movies, franchises, etc. Star Wars is not a CBM, so it flopping means exactly nothing to the issue of CBM Franchise Fatigue. I have read ample articles on the BO receipts, and they're basically all positive. So where is all this bad PR you're eluding to?

Grace from BTT and Forbes have all cited things that would precursor to genuine media backlash also many Youtubers have said it in there box office breakdowns that are generally Disney favoring not just Grace. The Forbes articles were what concerned me most as I've never seen a trade be so openly critical of Disney Marvel.

 

[Jh7058622]

Taking my daughter to see it again in a half hour....so add a few more dollars to the BO. t:

Have fun I'm taking my nephew to see it next Sunday.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Grace from BTT and Forbes have all cited things that would precursor to genuine media backlash also many Youtubers have said it in there box office breakdowns that are generally Disney favoring not just Grace. The Forbes articles were what concerned me most as I've never seen a trade be so openly critical of Disney Marvel.

Can you link me to the article in question?

 

[Mysteryman]

Taking my daughter to see it again in a half hour....so add a few more dollars to the BO. t:

Good Man!

 

[Jh7058622]

Can you link me to the article in question?

Yeah I'll find them again (there's two) they are not scathing or anything but just stating what I've stated here.
Edit:

One of the complications of getting daily box office updates, especially over the weekend, is that what looks like a solid weekend number in a vacuum may actually be less impressive both compared to initial estimates and when factoring in the Friday numbers. Walt Disney’s Ant-Man and the Wasp topped the box office this weekend with $76 million. That’s a fine start for a $160m-budgeted action comedy. But that $76m debut was from a $33.8m opening day and a $11.5m Thursday preview launch. Point being, Ant-Man and the Wasp was exceptionally frontloaded this weekend, especially for a Marvel Cinematic Universe movie.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.for...ine-lilly/amp/

here are two ways to look at the opening day for Walt Disney’s Ant-Man and the Wasp. First, you can note that the $33.8 million Friday gross (including $11.5m in Thursday previews) is the smallest opening day for an MCU sequel since the $31m debut of Thor: The Dark World back in 2013. Heck, adjusted for inflation, it’s about tied with the “inflated” $34.9m opening day for Thor 2. It’s way under the $40m-$42m “adjusted for inflation” opening days of Captain America: The Winter Soldier and Guardians of the Galaxy back in 2014. Marvel’s tiniest franchise, this sequel cost “just” $160m to produce, remains, by default, their smallest franchise.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.for...ine-lilly/amp/

Also the Grace movie breakdown.
[YT]l2nwP7FOmgI[/YT]

 

[Iceman]

There is no argument for franchise fatigue with the MCU. If A&W tops out at like 600, we still had 2 MCU films reach the billion dollar club, and 1 of which reached the 2 billion dollar club. The idea of franchise fatigue just because A&W didn't get as much of a sequel bump is ludicrous.

You can't have fatigue when your previous 2 films are all time 4 & 9 on the worldwide chart and 3 & 4 on the domestic chart.

 

[Iceman]

For those asking about remaining OS release dates, these are per IMDb.

India 13 July 2018
Nepal 13 July 2018 (Kathmandu)
Belgium 18 July 2018
France 18 July 2018
Netherlands 18 July 2018
Germany 26 July 2018
Hungary 26 July 2018
UK 3 August 2018
Ireland 3 August 2018
Poland 3 August 2018
Italy 14 August 2018
Portugal 15 August 2018
Japan 31 August 2018

Not sure if it has an official China release date yet, but China is in a foreign film blackout period this month, so sometime in August seems to be the earliest.

Still absolutely ages away for us.

 

[iEquinox]

Oh god, not Grace Randolph. I simply can't take someone seriously if they unironically mention her as a source on box office insight.

 

[Ozbridge]

Yeah I'll find them again (there's two) they are not scathing or anything but just stating what I've stated here.
Edit:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.for...ine-lilly/amp/


https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.for...ine-lilly/amp/

Your link doesn't work. It's an article by Mendelson from Forbes.

Box Office: 'Ant-Man And The Wasp' Nabs Front-Loaded $76M Debut

And even though you gave 2 links as if they're two articles but the 2 quotes are from the same article.

 

[Jh7058622]

You can't have fatigue when your previous 2 films are all time 4 & 9 on the worldwide chart and 3 & 4 on the domestic chart.

Isn't that kind of what happened with Star Wars?

Your link doesn't work. It's an article by Mendelson from Forbes.

Box Office: 'Ant-Man And The Wasp' Nabs Front-Loaded $76M Debut

Thanks. I was getting it from a Google headline I posted it somewhere then copied the post someone else quoted. It was literally the first I saw on Saturday morning.

 

[Jh7058622]

Oh god, not Grace Randolph. I simply can't take someone seriously if they unironically mention her as a source on box office insight.

t: I wasn't seriously considering her just three her in there.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

There is no argument for franchise fatigue with the MCU. If A&W tops out at like 600, we still had 2 MCU films reach the billion dollar club, and 1 of which reached the 2 billion dollar club. The idea of franchise fatigue just because A&W didn't get as much of a sequel bump is ludicrous.

If there’s any fatigue at all, I’d argue that it’s just general, financially driven blockbuster fatigue. As deadline notes here...

https://deadline.com/2018/06/north-...lion-earliest-in-first-six-months-1202418435/

...this year has set a blistering hot pace at the BO, and movie-going ain’t cheap, especially when you consider many of these (including AM&TW) are being marketed as family films. Forking over $50-60 (or more depending on where you live) a weekend for the family to go see this week’s big new release adds up quick. People will start looking for what they really want to see and what they can wait for on dvd or Netflix pretty quick. I suspect that took a big bite out of Solo and I wouldn’t be surprised if it ultimately trimmed AM&TW’s sails somewhat. But that remains to be seen.

 

[marcvader]

Oh god, not Grace Randolph. I simply can't take someone seriously if they unironically mention her as a source on box office insight.

Right?

Anyway I've yet to see it, but I'll probably go tonight or Wednesday.