Are Studios Committing Movie Suicide?

[matrix_ghost]

You are REALLY misreading what I said

I didn't say those 3 would be the biggest of the summer. I meant that they will be the films to beat for THAT MONTH. I wasnt saying Cars 2 will make more than TF3, I wasnt saying Pirates would make more than HP7 pt 2. I was saying for the month of May my prediction is that Pirates 4 will be the highest grosser FOR THAT MONTH not for the whole summer

Ahh. My bad

and I really don't know what youre talking about "maybe people will flock to see Potter" Its one of the top 10 highest grossing movie franchises based on the biggest book series in the last 10 years. Harry Potter is basically on movie steroids with all it has going for it. Beloved movie series by both critics and the GA, beloved books by both the critics and the GA, people are attatched to the actors, its the last movie in the series, its in 3D, it will be a while until we see a new HP film in theaters (maybe someone else will adapt the books in 20 years). The only thing I see really stopping this movie from being a mega Hit is a global natural disaster

And i think you're misreading what i'm saying here
I know that Potter will be huge. And don't take the "maybe people wil lflock to see Potter " comment literally. What i meant by that is that compared to DH1 [/b] (maybe) MORE[/b] people will see it.
This of course is because DH1 has less competition then DH2 ( even though it's the final potter movie).
Check this out :
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_in_film#July.E2.80.93September
DH1 has virtually no competion till december 2010 when the 3rd Narnia movie is released. And even then it still will do well in terms of holdovers because of the holiday season.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_and_beyond_in_film
Dh2 has to compete with TF3 , Cowboys and Aliens , Smurfs and Captain America. And there is still the matter of holdovers from June ( such as Cars).
But still , like you said , this being the final movie people would want to see the movie despite interest in all those movies. Hence my comment of "flocking to see potter".
Again i know Potter will do well. The last 2 potter movies have been the 2nd and 3rd highest grossing ones of the series. Despite them being summer releases.
In fact i do think that both potter movies should hit 400 million domestic and at least 1 billion WW.

 

[matrix_ghost]

What do you think about Green Lantern. It does have Ryan Reynolds and will be the most CG heavy superhero film I think due to the Oa scenes, but do you think it'll be a hit? I think it'll make by its budget but wont be Iron Man huge

It'll need some serious legs to hit 300 million. Though WB might say "oh we're happy if this movie makes 200 million dom." , fact is that this movie should make more. I think the comparison with Iron man is justified because this is the first lesser known DC character to get the same big treatment as Superman and Batman. If GL fails , WB might put everything back and just focus on making supes a success. With Batman running well , the time has come for GL to become a big hit.

Problem is the competition. Even though it's going to be a 3-d movie ( which also doesn't guarentee huge success if more movies are competitng for 3-d screens) , it's sandwiched between FC and Cars 2. And some May flicks might also have excellent holdovers as well as competing with the big July releases.

 

[mclay18]

Don't forget April as well.
I mean both Clash Of The Titans and How To Train Your Dragon performed well during that month.

Clash didn't do as well as the studio hoped it would, but it did make enough for Warners to bankroll a sequel. And most of Dragon's money came during April and May, a good word-of-mouth sign.

I'm saying that studios aren't using these so-called dumping months as much as they can, since there's money to be made during these off-seasons. I'm thinking they should utilize more dates in January, February, and mid-August through October weekends.

Heck, studios are relegating more summer releases to August. Sony made a lot of money with their August 2009 releases of District 9 and Julie & Julia.

 

[MadVillainy]

I'm up in the air about Green Lantern. I am CONVINCED that comic fans overestimate the public's awareness of the character. That could hurt the movie...but if it looks like an awesome space epic, then it could be big. I dont see it being a massive hit. There's so much competition that it will be hard to really have legs...though GL could be vastly different from anything else coming out.
I agree. Cars 2 comes out the week after GL. I mean its a kids movie AND a Pixar one and then TF3 the week after? Forget about it. GL would be very lucky to be making serious money. But I do think it'll do decent

Thor is lucky to be kicking off the summer...

Agreed it has 2 weekends before Pirates4 shows up. Should give it time

Captain America has the potential to be a major, major failure. It isn't going to do well in lots of countries (which is why I think it will simply be called The First Avenger in many markets) and if the war is still going badly and the economy hasnt recovered then even Americans could look badly on the film.

I can see those things being a problem

 

[FaT_tONle]

Next summer is stacked because movie studios are preparing for the end of the world in December 2012, so they want to get all of those movies out of the way a year and a half early.

The joke is old man...

Even though Wolverine made over $375 million it was less than X2 and X3. People like Wolverine but they prefer X-Men movies more, which First Class will be. The franchise can continue without Wolverine, it's not like Spider-Man or Batman.

No... it made less because the franchise is on the decline. Even though it was marketed as an X-Men movie with Hugh returning, it did not meet studio expectations. First Class has some talent behind it so there may be hope still, but I am not sure how enthused people will be considering we have seen that relationship for three movies now.

who cares... movie studios owe us after this lame summer

We will be in store for many more lame summers once these properties run dry. We need constant innovation, spontaneity, and ingenious approaches. Easier said than done I get that. How about bringing in film makers that take their craft as an art, who can consolidate their concepts into tentpoles that can captivate the masses rather than obscure indie films (not that there isn't a place for that stuff)? There will always be writers who are never short on ideas so that should not be an issue.

And if the ideas become repetitive, then technology has to be the underlying motif that drives Hollywood. It doesn't have to be a once every ten years movie like Avatar or Titanic, from the same director no less. It can be once every three years, or five if you are hard to impress. You ****ed up the 3-D already Hollywood so here's to a job well done... But seriously, the capabilities are there. If video games and home theaters (3-D TV's no less) are going to provide the same experiences, people aren't going to pick their asses off the sofa and drive to a theater. Going to these "summer event" movies need to feel like you are taking your family to Disneyland or Universal Studios. I don't think pirating is a relevant excuse for movies on that level either. You can't possibly get the same experience from a bootleg on a standard computer compared to what you get in theaters or even a decent high def.

But obviously I am all for more CB movies, but do we really need three Marvel tentpoles a summer? I don't care which studios are involved, having all those brand names out the same season is a genre killer, that's all there is to it. Does WB really need a big time DC movie out every summer or winter when they don't have the excuse of being a CB only studio? I'm gonna focus on Marvel though, the fact that they are seemingly encouraging these remakes and revitalization of properties at other studios that have already been done this decade just tells you everything you need to know. They are striking the iron when it's hot and fully realize that this gold mine will run dry sooner than later. I completely disagree with the approach and find it to be an exceedingly myopic view on their own potential.

 

[matrix_ghost]

Clash didn't do as well as the studio hoped it would, but it did make enough for Warners to bankroll a sequel. And most of Dragon's money came during April and May, a good word-of-mouth sign.

Honestly i think COTT performed just as WB had hoped.
I've said this in the COTT thread ...i think that WB deliberatly used the 3-d as a means of saving themselves from a loss. CHUD has a good write up on how the movie was very different from their initial set visit. I was surprised that WB would use well basically Fox tactics to salvage the movie especially considering that they give their directors quite alot of creative freedom. My guess is that after LL came on board and said that he would make a PG-13 version of COTT ( the movie was initially planned as a hard R feature a la 300 and was also going to be shot using greenscreen) , WB just let him to his thing. THen when the movie came together WB saw that it just wasn't what they were expecting. Cue reshoots. And as a last ditch effort they decided to use half assed 3-d in order to reduce losses.
While initially WB may have hoped for a 300 type of BO , i think that they were more then happy with the results of COTT after they saw the first cut of COTT.

 

[MadVillainy]

The joke is old man...



No... it made less because the franchise is on the decline. Even though it was marketed as an X-Men movie with Hugh returning, it did not meet studio expectations. First Class has some talent behind it so there may be hope still, but I am not sure how enthused people will be considering we have seen that relationship for three movies now.



We will be in store for many more lame summers once these properties run dry. We need constant innovation, spontaneity, and ingenious approaches. Easier said than done I get that. How about bringing in film makers that take their craft as an art, who can consolidate their concepts into tentpoles that can captivate the masses rather than obscure indie films (not that there isn't a place for that stuff). There will always be writers who are never short on ideas so that shouldn't be an issue.

And if the ideas become repetitive, then technology has to be the underlying motif that drives Hollywood. It doesn't have to be a once every ten years movie like Avatar or Titanic, from the same director no less. It can be once every three years, or five if you are hard to impress. You ****ed up the 3-D already Hollywood so here's to a job well done... But seriously, the capabilities are there. If video games and home theaters (3-D TV's no less) are going to provide the same experiences, people aren't going to pick their asses off the sofa and drive to a theater. Going to movies need to feel like you are taking your family to Disneyland or Universal Studios when you see these "summer event" movies. I don't think pirating is a relevant excuse for movies on that level either. You can't possibly get the same experience from a bootleg on a standard computer than what you get in theaters or even a decent high def.

But obviously I am all for more CB movies, but do we really need three Marvel tentpoles a summer? I don't care which studios are involved, having all those brand names out the same season is a genre killer, that's all there is to it. Does WB really need a big time DC movie out every summer or winter when they don't have the excuse of being a CB only studio? I'm gonna focus on Marvel though, the fact that they are seemingly encouraging these remakes and revitalization of properties that have already been done this decade, just tells you everything you need to know. They are striking the iron when it's hot and fully realize that this gold mine will run dry sooner than later. I completely disagree with the approach and find it to be an exceedingly myopic view on their own potential.

I 100% understand why Marvel is striking the iron while it's hot" its called good business

Lets say youre in the business of selling clothes and REALLY tight jeans are in style. If you want to be successful you better change your format and sell the skinny jeans. Its following the trend, some call it selling out, but if you won a business its called staying afloat I dont see how its "myopic on their own potential"

 

[FaT_tONle]

I 100% understand why Marvel is striking the iron while it's hot" its called good business

Lets say youre in the business of selling clothes and REALLY tight jeans are in style. If you want to be successful you better change your format and sell the skinny jeans. Its following the trend, some call it selling out, but if you won a business its called staying afloat I dont see how its "myopic on their own potentia"

It is good business now... doesn't mean you can't end up where you were a few years ago. I guess they have Disney to fall back on, but Disney is also relying on them for what already is and will exceedingly become a significant portion of their profits. When you have to spend 50-60 million to get these movies out, and maybe you end up with a Jonah Hex more often than not, maybe Disney gives up on you. Far from that point at the moment.

What I am saying in a nutshell is, if the FF reboot isn't done in the same mold and follow the same footsteps as the efforts we have gotten from Marvel thus far, I am not paying for the Avengers movie. Simple as that. I don't care what the legal rights are, unless there was absolutely NO WAY Disney could have done anything to get it back or at least throw a filibuster or two to delay it (which we would never know), the fact that Marvel may be involved and encouraged the go-ahead to get a piece of the pie from Fox, they are just as responsible. Same with the Spidey reboot. These properties have no business being rebooted this soon unless it makes sense. Hulk made sense for an Avengers setup. Spidey and FF do not... not for Marvel Studios in 2012. I'll give X-Men a pass for Marvel since Fox has had it since 1992 and there may be some long standing legal blockades with that one.

 

[Dr. Evil]

Anyone think that TV plays a factor in the lack of good movies out there?

There is actually more quality on TV than there is in movies right now, with shows like Breaking Bad, Mad Men, Justified, Damages, Weeds, Curb Your Enthusiasm, Entourage, Sons of Anarchy and a few others on cable as well as broadcast shows like 30 Rock, The Office, Community, Parks and Recreation, Modern Family, The CSI shows, The Big Bang Theory, Chuck, HIMYM and Castle (to name a few). There's also been a recent trend of very talented, award winning movie actors moving to TV such as Glenn Close, Laura Linney, Gabriel Byrne, Forrest Whitaker, Gary Sinese, Sally Field and movie actors making guest appearances on TV, like with Matt Damon on the season finale of 30 Rock and Ed Norton on Modern Family.

Maybe I'm the only one who feels that way.

But somehow, TV has the better actors and the better writers.

 

[FaT_tONle]

Anyone think that TV plays a factor in the lack of good movies out there?

There is actually more quality on TV than there is in movies right now, with shows like Breaking Bad, Mad Men, Justified, Damages, Weeds, Curb Your Enthusiasm, Entourage, Sons of Anarchy and a few others on cable as well as broadcast shows like 30 Rock, The Office, Community, Parks and Recreation, Modern Family, The CSI shows, The Big Bang Theory, Chuck, HIMYM and Castle (to name a few). There's also been a recent trend of very talented, award winning movie actors moving to TV such as Glenn Close, Laura Linney, Gabriel Byrne, Forrest Whitaker, Gary Sinese, Sally Field and movie actors making guest appearances on TV, like with Matt Damon on the season finale of 30 Rock and Ed Norton on Modern Family.

Maybe I'm the only one who feels that way.

But somehow, TV has the better actors and the better writers.

Maybe that explains the lulls in the Fall through... and the following Spring. Not mid summer movies when those shows aren't even in season. Summer shows are typically garbage. But I am not a TV guy at all so don't take my word for it.

 

[matrix_ghost]

Anyone think that TV plays a factor in the lack of good movies out there?

There is actually more quality on TV than there is in movies right now, with shows like Breaking Bad, Mad Men, Justified, Damages, Weeds, Curb Your Enthusiasm, Entourage, Sons of Anarchy and a few others on cable as well as broadcast shows like 30 Rock, The Office, Community, Parks and Recreation, Modern Family, The CSI shows, The Big Bang Theory, Chuck, HIMYM and Castle (to name a few). There's also been a recent trend of very talented, award winning movie actors moving to TV such as Glenn Close, Laura Linney, Gabriel Byrne, Forrest Whitaker, Gary Sinese, Sally Field and movie actors making guest appearances on TV, like with Matt Damon on the season finale of 30 Rock and Ed Norton on Modern Family.

Maybe I'm the only one who feels that way.

But somehow, TV has the better actors and the better writers.

I dunno about that. To be honest i don't watch tv series that often.
But i think that the tv writers have the advantage of planning stuff well in advance . Certainly that is the case with PIXAR where the story ideas are in development for years .
TV series are meant to run for alot of seasons whereas with movies you need to succeed with the first movie ( at least if you're planning franchises).
Look at Potter. Rowling;s first book was released in 1997 and the last book was released 2007. 10 years to write 7 books. Could you imagine what would happen if Rowling was some screenwriter who came to WB and says "well i have this script". Que WB buying that script and then making it into a succesful movie. Then Rowling is asked to write more scripts. It takes her 10 years to write 7 scripts ( so to speak). By then the actors are too old to even play the characters anymore.

I can understand why Hollywood prefers to take approach of using remakes , CB movies etc to make cash. Time isn't working with them.

 

[Catman]

Remember when people complained about summer 2007 being cluttered?

 

[redhawk23]

Remember when people complained about summer 2007 being cluttered?

that summer was not only over crowd ed but horroribly front loaded

 

[:eek:]

are you talking about quality? because Summer 2010 is the probably the weakest Summer in a while. Even 2009 had District 9, Moon, and 500 Days of Summer and so far, we haven't gotten that yet (in 2010)

Well we got Toy Story 3 and Inception looks interesting, definitely more interesting than any movie I can think of will be released next summer

 

[S.A.A.D.]

Anyone think that TV plays a factor in the lack of good movies out there?

There is actually more quality on TV than there is in movies right now, with shows like Breaking Bad, Mad Men, Justified, Damages, Weeds, Curb Your Enthusiasm, Entourage, Sons of Anarchy and a few others on cable as well as broadcast shows like 30 Rock, The Office, Community, Parks and Recreation, Modern Family, The CSI shows, The Big Bang Theory, Chuck, HIMYM and Castle (to name a few). There's also been a recent trend of very talented, award winning movie actors moving to TV such as Glenn Close, Laura Linney, Gabriel Byrne, Forrest Whitaker, Gary Sinese, Sally Field and movie actors making guest appearances on TV, like with Matt Damon on the season finale of 30 Rock and Ed Norton on Modern Family.

Maybe I'm the only one who feels that way.

But somehow, TV has the better actors and the better writers.

Eh,tv shows on tv are still a piece of poop,the new ones imo. Which means lots of them. I'll watch old tv shows over that junk any day,you know a tv show is a failure when it doesn't have appeal for you. I don't think tv plays a big factor,I still thinks is previously existing movies and tv shows on dvd that are no long on air actually and that came out in theaters along time ago,mainly people buying them that is.

 

[Compi716]

Didnt know that about Rise of the Apes

I dont see what your saying about TF3. The last HP movie made more than the last Transformers movie, The last 2 HP movies combined made more than both the Transformers movies combined. Harry Potter is more liked, more known, and more respected. And as I said before, this is going to be the last HP film released for a LONG time because its the end of the series (and you can bet that theyre going to milk that in the advertising) while with Transformers they'll probably reboot in 5 years.

Incorrect regarding domestic gross.

Transformers: $319,246,193
Harry Potter 5: $292,004,738
Transformers 2: $402,111,870
Harry Potter 6: $301,959,197

Where HP does dominate (and that is the correct word - dominate) is in international gross. However, dealing just with America, there's almost a sense of disillusionment with the HP franchise. I truly believe the final film will be greeted with a great sigh of relief that it's finally over. The same can be said for Transformers, but if the trailers are good for TF3...expect a higher domestic gross.

Personally, I think if any comic film is going to bomb it'll be Green Lantern. Despite the fanboy attitude, the general public hasn't quite gotten into the idea of Ryan Reynolds as a superhero. A lot of the success of GL will really come down to the marketing, but that's my pick as potential bomb.

X-Men will hopefully be delayed till the fall, simply because I can't believe they can possibly finish it in time...unless it's not CGI heavy, which means less powers, which mean lest interest from the GA.

Captain America and Thor will both be hits, and part of CA's success will be from riding the coattails of Thor. The GA seems to be very excited about the concept of the "Marvel Movieverse," and by the time Cap is released people will know full well what it's part of. This is something that is going to need to be pushed in the foreign market, in addition to the film being in a WWII setting.

As of now, the only countries where CA will for SURE not do well are Iraq, Iran, and Algeria .

 

[Thundarr]

I agree they should use other months. Its just that during the summer theres Summer break, in November there is Thanksgiving ,and December there's winter break so more kids are home have nothing to do in those months and can go see movies.
I think March is starting to move up in terms of movie real estate as you said ALice and Wonderland made alot of money in that slot

but you know I dont think August is used enough. Mostly August has been a dumping ground for the R rated and mediocre films of the summer. They should use August more.

Good point about Summer Break, Thanksgiving, and Christmas Break. However, the studios are neglecting Spring Break and Easter Holiday which would be excellent times to release these big budget Hollywood blockbusters for the very same reasons you mentioned. Plus it will spread them out so that they're less cluttered at the box office during the summer and Christmas holidays.

 

[Figs]

X-Men will hopefully be delayed till the fall, simply because I can't believe they can possibly finish it in time...unless it's not CGI heavy, which means less powers, which mean lest interest from the GA.

This is Fox we're talking about here. They can finish it in time because they will rush the **** out of it.

Captain America and Thor will both be hits, and part of CA's success will be from riding the coattails of Thor. The GA seems to be very excited about the concept of the "Marvel Movieverse," and by the time Cap is released people will know full well what it's part of. This is something that is going to need to be pushed in the foreign market, in addition to the film being in a WWII setting.

With Captain America "riding the coattails of Thor" they better advertise the **** out of that movie because it's very possible it could turn out to be like TIH. Might do ok but not be a certified hit. I do realize that TIH was hurt by Ang's film as well, with the GA at least.

As of now, the only countries where CA will for SURE not do well are Iraq, Iran, and Algeria .

Very true. To be honest I believe that a number of countries will probably not show it at all. Just like when China started crying like babies about Batman owning Lau in Hong Kong as well as when Harvey mentioned the gun was made in China and told Maroni to buy American. So they didn't allow it over there(or was it just not allowed a major release across more screens?).

 

[FaT_tONle]

Good point about Summer Break, Thanksgiving, and Christmas Break. However, the studios are neglecting Spring Break and Easter Holiday which would be excellent times to release these big budget Hollywood blockbusters for the very same reasons you mentioned. Plus it will spread them out so that they're less cluttered at the box office during the summer and Christmas holidays.

That's the thing, we are missing that March/April tentpole. Biggest film this year was COTT, and that was a failure on most accounts. We also get some lame Valentine's day movie in February, which is always a dog month. Might as well put a decent movie for the masses there.

 

[Thundarr]

Movie studios are always making stupid decisions in hopes of generating more money. Lately it's been overloading the theatres with so many big budget films that they're essentially competing with themselves and not making their money back.

Before that it was flooding the theatres with un-asked for, unwanted, and unnecessary remakes and/or reboots.

And they've always interfered with a writer's or director's creative vision in order to give the audience the movie that they think the public wants. Spiderman 3 is a perfect example. Sam Raimi just wanted Spidey to be battling New Goblin & Sandman, but the studio wanted to add Venom to the mix too. Friday The 13th Part 5, the original script only called for the people at the halfway house and maybe those two hillbillies to be killed. The studio insisted that there be either a false scare or a death every 4 to 7 minutes. Thus extra characters and extra scenes had to be written in which made the movie too cluttered and took away from any potential for building suspense.

Maybe the studio execs will learn from all these mistakes. Maybe they won't. Only time will tell. If they refuse to learn from their mistakes, then yes they will be committing career suicide. Then hopefully the next batch of studio execs will be smarter.

 

[Catman]

that summer was not only over crowd ed but horroribly front loaded

Not really. It's true that May was insane, but Knocked Up, Ratatouille, Transformers, Harry Potter, The Simpsons, The Bourne Ultimatum, and Superbad filled out the rest of the summer.

 

[Spider-Vader]

Why is Disney releasing Pooh the same day as Cap? I'd push Pooh if I were them, they'd be losing money in two ways.

As for Cap, they should market it as a war movie.

 

[FaT_tONle]

Why is Disney releasing Pooh the same day as Cap? I'd push Pooh if I were them, they'd be losing money in two ways.

This is what I am talking about... the studios are more clueless than the fanboys more often than not... I hope that is some mixup in the slate because it doesn't make sense. Kids can't watch Captain America that weekend and have to settle for Pooh?

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

If we want to see more original properties and original films then Inception is one of those films that really needs to succeed.

Also, some of these sequels really need to be spread out. I can totally see studios delaying films. In fact, I think its inevitable that delays will happen

 

[Rumpy Bulge Dubz]

It can't take a back seat for a few years. If Fox doesn't put X-Men movies in development every 3 years I think it is, then the rights revert back to Marvel. You are going to be seeing an X-Men movie at least every 3 years until it stops making money for Fox. Same with Sony and Spider-Man.

which is why I will skip each and every X Men and Spider-Man movie released under Fox and Sony, because to them it's not about making a good film, but maintaining rights. There is literally no point in wasting time and money supporting these efforts

may as well just wipe your ass with your money, because that's what you're doing if you purchase any tickets to any future X or Spidey films