Time for our weekly tracking look.
Advice & Analysis: Weekly Tracking
Advice & Analysis: Reviews
June 28, 2007
FINAL WEEKEND TRACKING: 'Ratatouille' to grab $48M-$51M; 'Die Hard 4' headed for $22M-$25M; 'Sicko' should top $10M; 'Evening' set to tank
by Steve Mason
Live Free or Die Hard (Fox) is now open. I went online with an opening day projection of $8-$10M early last night, revised to $8M last night at 10:30a, and pushed it to $8.8M this morning at 9am. Box Office Mojo released its Wednesday estimate at about 11a, and theyre at $9.1M. That is a good, not great, start for John McClane. Im raising my 5-day slighty to the $36M-$39M range and a traditional 3-day weekend of $22M-$25M.
For more analysis on Die Hard 4, read my Wednesday tracking column.
3 more major movies hit Americas multiplexes tomorrow (6/29), and
Ratatouille (Buena Vista) and
Sicko (Lionsgate/Weinstein) are both certain hits, while
Evening (Focus), despite its amazing cast, a certain miss
The most ominous insider analysis that I was given about
Ratatouille this week, is that its tracking is almost identical to
Over the Hedge. Its not that
Hedge wasnt a hit, with a $38.4M opening weekend and $155M domestic. Its that those numbers would be a disaster by Pixar standards.
Based on all of this analysis, there is no way that Ratatouille gets to $70M like
Finding Nemo and
The Incredibles, and I say that the chances are slim that the Disney marketing department can get it to $60M like
Monsters, Inc. and last summers
Cars. But, high $40Ms seems doable and cracking $50M would be real accomplishment. Ill go on the line with a $48M-$51M opening weekend.
PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND OF 6/29-7/1
1. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) - $50M
2. Live Free or Die Hard (Fox) - $24.2M
3. Evan Almighty (Universal) - $13.1M
4. Sicko (Lionsgate/Weinstein) - $11.25M
5. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) - $10.7M
6. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (Fox) - $9.6M
7. Knocked Up (Universal) - $8.25M
8. Oceans Thirteen (Warner Bros) - $6.8M
9. Pirates of the Caribbean: At Worlds End (Buena Vista) - $4.2M
10.. Surfs Up (Sony) - $4M
*Evening (Focus) - $2.1M
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