Rise of the Silver Surfer BOX OFFICE Discussion

[Carp Man]

July 28, 2007

‘The Simpsons Movie’ w/$24.15M Saturday; Homer headed for $72.5M, all-time 22nd-best opening weekend and all-time 3rd-best for an animated film; 'No Reservations' #5, Lohan #9, 'Caddy' #10; 'Rescue Dawn' w/strong expansion

by Steve Mason

SATURDAY NIGHT: The Simpsons Movie (Fox) dipped an estimated 17% from its meteoric Friday opening, but the animated TV adaptation still grabbed approximately $24.15M. With a conservative 20% Sunday drop, the first big screen adventure for Homer and family will still have banked a phenomenal $72.5M. That’s 45% more than industry tracking services NRG, MarketCast and OTX were calling for at the start of the weekend.

If the $72.5M number holds, it will the 22nd-best opening weekend in modern box office history and the all-time 3rd-best opening weekend for an animated film, trailing only Shrek the Third ($121.6M) and Shrek 2 ($108M). Not only does this monstrous start guarantee a movie sequel, but it will almost certainly reinvigorate the television series on Fox, which finished the 2006-2007 season as only the #60 primetime show of 142 programs.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY SATURDAY ESTIMATES
1. The Simpsons Movie (Fox) – $24.15M [$53.2M cume]
2. I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry (Universal) – $7M [$65.7M cume]
3. Harry Potter & the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros) – $6.92M [$236.5M cume]
4. Hairspray (New Line) – $6M [$54.9M cume]
5. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $4.49M [$289.7M cume]
6. No Reservations (Warner Bros) – $4.46M [$8.4M cume]
7. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) – $2.98M [$177.6M cume]
8. Live Free or Die Hard (Fox) – $2.25M [$123.5M cume]
9. I Know Who Killed Me (Sony) – $1.13M [$2.4M cume]
10. Who’s Your Caddy? (MGM/Weinstein) – $1.12M [$2M cume]
11. Rescue Dawn (MGM) – $558,000 [$2.2M cume]
12. Knocked Up (Universal) – $492,000 [$144.7M cume]
13. License to Wed (Warner Bros) - $484,000 [$41.3M cume]
14. Sunshine (Fox Searchlight) – $452,000 [$1.2M cume]
15. Evan Almighty (Universal) – $449,000 [$95.9M cume]
16. Sicko (Lionsgate/Weinstein) – $429,000 [$20.9M cume]
17. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) – $426,000 [$69.5M cume]
18. Talk to Me (Focus) – $328,000 [$1.6M cume]
19. Ocean’s Thirteen (Warner Bros) - $203,000 [$115.4M cume]
20. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End (Buena Vista) – $149,000 [$306.6M cume]
21. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (Fox) – $148,000 [$129.4M cume]
22. La Vie En Rose (Picturehouse) – $148,000 [$8M cume]
23. Once (Fox Searchlight) – $134,000 [$5.9M cume]
24. Mr. Brooks (MGM) – $57,000 [$28.2M cume]
25. Evening (Focus) – $28,800 [$12.3M cume]


EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. The Simpsons Movie (Fox) – $72.5M [$72.5M cume]
2. I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry (Universal) – $18M [$70.6M cume]
3. Harry Potter & the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros) – $17.4M [$242.1M cume]
4. Hairspray (New Line) – $15.7M [$59.4M cume]
5. No Reservations (Warner Bros) – $11.6M [$11.6M cume]
6. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $11.2M [$284.2M cume]
7. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) – $7.4M [$179.8M cume]
8. Live Free or Die Hard (Fox) – $5.3M [$125.1M cume]
9. I Know Who Killed Me (Sony) - $3.1M [$3.1M cume]
10. Who’s Your Caddy? (MGM/Weinstein) – $2.7M [$2.7M cume]
11. Rescue Dawn (MGM) – $1.4M [$2.7M cume]
12. Sunshine (Fox Searchlight) – $1.2M [$1.6M cume]
13. Knocked Up (Universal) – $1.17M [$145.1M cume]
14. License to Wed (Warner Bros) - $1.14M [$41.5M cume]
15. Evan Almighty (Universal) – $1.1M [$96.2M cume]
16. Sicko (Lionsgate/Weinstein) – $1.03M [$21.2M cume]
17. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) – $962,000 [$69.7M cume]
18. Talk to Me (Focus) – $797,000 [$1.8M cume]
19. Ocean’s Thirteen (Warner Bros) - $477,000 [$115.5M cume]
20. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (Fox) – $360,000 [$129.6M cume]
21. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End (Buena Vista) – $352,000 [$306.7M cume]
22. La Vie En Rose (Picturehouse) – $347,000 [$8.1M cume]
23. Once (Fox Searchlight) – $305,000 [$6M cume]
24. Mr. Brooks (MGM) – $136,000 [$28.3M cume]
25. Evening (Focus) – $105,000 [$12.3M cume]

 

[GreenKToo]

I think it may be safe to say that T.F. and H.P. are gonna join the 300 mill club. Five 300 mill dom movies in one summer, mindblowing to say the least.

 

[Carp Man]

Weekend estimates are up.

TSM :

Domestic: $71,850,000 100.0%+ Foreign: n/a 0.0%= Worldwide: $71,850,000

TF's :

Domestic: $284,558,000 59.7%+ Foreign: $192,437,683 40.3%= Worldwide: $476,995,683

HP:

Domestic: $241,771,000 40.8%+ Foreign: $351,300,000 59.2%= Worldwide: $593,071,000

No update on FF 2.

 

[Carp Man]

I think it may be safe to say that T.F. and H.P. are gonna join the 300 mill club. Five 300 mill dom movies in one summer, mindblowing to say the least.

And 3 near the $ 900 million mark WW. Pirates, SM 3, and HP. t: Not a bad summer. I am suprised thou that with the way Pirates started out it hit $ 947.1 WW, and SM 3 has only $ 888.4 WW. Deep still has it. I thought for sure SM 3 would hit $ 900 WW.

 

[WorthyStevens]

Hopefully - with the success of the Simpsons Movie - we'll see more actual animated kids movies instead of just the CGI ones...

 

[GreenKToo]

And 3 near the $ 900 million mark WW. Pirates, SM 3, and HP. t: Not a bad summer. I am suprised thou that with the way Pirates started out it hit $ 947.1 WW, and SM 3 has only $ 888.4 WW. Deep still has it. I thought for sure SM 3 would hit $ 900 WW.

I wonder if pirates has a chance at a billion? I kinda doubt it now, but you never know.

 

[Carp Man]

Hopefully - with the success of the Simpsons Movie - we'll see more actual animated kids movies instead of just the CGI ones...

I agree. Perhaps that will be something they will look more into. I think people are getting tired of the CGI movies. Anamated cartoon movies may be the wave of the future. There certinally are a ton of them, and with the popularity of nostalgic things of the 60's and 70's, there is a wealth of material out there that has been untouched.

 

[Carp Man]

I wonder if pirates has a chance at a billion? I kinda doubt it now, but you never know.

Nah. It's just about done. It may hit $ 950, but basicly it is finished. a billion is out of reach.

 

[GL's Light]

Die Hard 4 made $ 5.35 mil for the weekend, bringing its total to $ 125.128 mil. Looks like it'll not only gross more than FF 2 worldwide, but also domestically.

 

[Kelly]

I agree. Perhaps that will be something they will look more into. I think people are getting tired of the CGI movies. Anamated cartoon movies may be the wave of the future. There certinally are a ton of them, and with the popularity of nostalgic things of the 60's and 70's, there is a wealth of material out there that has been untouched.

Well nostalgic tv shows brought to the big screen are bombing....big time.

I'm not sure that "Get Smart" is going to do any better than the other stuff coming from TV to the big screen....

I would like Hollywood to find a creative bone in its body and actually use it....

 

[highguard]

^^ How many markets does Die Hard have though as opposed to FF to open in. I understand FF2 still has about 60-70 million still on the table.

 

[Kelly]

Die Hard
Slovenia 2 August 2007
Brazil 3 August 2007
Australia 9 August 2007
Bolivia 9 August 2007
New Zealand 9 August 2007
Venezuela 10 August 2007
Argentina 16 August 2007
Spain 7 September 2007
Italy 26 October 2007


Fantastic Four 2
Netherlands 26 July 2007
South Korea 26 July 2007
Belgium 8 August 2007
France 8 August 2007
Germany 9 August 2007
Finland 10 August 2007
Norway 10 August 2007
Spain 10 August 2007
Croatia 16 August 2007
Bulgaria 17 August 2007
Sweden 17 August 2007
Turkey 17 August 2007
Lithuania 31 August 2007
Japan 29 September 2007

 

[GL's Light]

^^ How many markets does Die Hard have though as opposed to FF to open in. I understand FF2 still has about 60-70 million still on the table.

Die Hard 4 is at $ 284 mil worldwide. It has yet to be released in 17 markets, including Australia, Italy and Spain. It's also only just started playing in some other major markets where it still has a lot of juice left, such as South Korea, where it scored the fourth biggest opening of all time last weekend.

 

[Carp Man]

Well nostalgic tv shows brought to the big screen are bombing....big time.

I'm not sure that "Get Smart" is going to do any better than the other stuff coming from TV to the big screen....

I would like Hollywood to find a creative bone in its body and actually use it....

Forget hollywood redoing sitcoms. Forget it. The writing, the charactors, the actors all blending in together, you can't recreate it. Honneymooners = bomb, Bewitched = bomb, Dukes of Hazzard = bomb, and I don't have much faith in Get Smart. The chemistry of the actors like Don Addams, and Barbara Feldon, Elizabeth Montgomery, and Dick York, Jackie Gleason, Audrey Meadows, Art Carnry, that made them work. You just can't stick 2 actors in and recreate the magic. Just impossible.

 

[Carp Man]

Die Hard 4 made $ 5.35 mil for the weekend, bringing its total to $ 125.128 mil. Looks like it'll not only gross more than FF 2 worldwide, but also domestically.

And your point is ? Other then to rub faces in it.

 

[GL's Light]

And your point is ? Other then to rub faces in it.

We've been having ongoing discussions about whether or not FF 2 would be Fox's biggest film of the year despite its underperformance. That's the point - the continuation of a prominent point of discussion in this thread.

 

[Carp Man]

We've been having ongoing discussions about whether or not FF 2 would be Fox's biggest film of the year despite its underperformance. That's the point - the continuation of a prominent point of discussion in this thread.

I thought Die Hard would do well, just off pass performances. I thought The Simpsons Movie would do very well. If FF 2 had done what I expected ( At least 180 to 200 dom ), it would be # 1 right now. Die Hard is only at 125 domestic. It's not burning up the box office. The Simpsons Movie will be # 1 for Fox.

 

[Kelly]

And your point is ? Other then to rub faces in it.

The only people around here that would feel GL's post was "rubbing their face in it" would be people that can't stand for other movies to do well......since when fans competing with other movie's fans outweight a person's simple enjoyment of a movie.


I enjoyed the hell out of FF2, and several other movies that are doing much better than FF2, who cares..........Die Hard was a good movie.....so what if it grosses more or is #3 for Fox and not FF2......I enjoyed both, and thats all that matters to me....

 

[Carp Man]

The only people around here that would feel GL's post was "rubbing their face in it" would be people that can't stand for other movies to do well......since when fans competing with other movie's fans outweight a person's simple enjoyment of a movie.


I enjoyed the hell out of FF2, and several other movies that are doing much better than FF2, who cares..........Die Hard was a good movie.....so what if it grosses more or is #3 for Fox and not FF2......I enjoyed both, and thats all that matters to me....

What matters is FF 2 should have done better. The hangover from the 1st movie was worse than I thought it would be. I'd like to exile Frost to the negative zone. I hold him responsible. How the hell they even let him close to the sequel I'll never understand. I saw his name right next to Payne's, I wanted to vomit.

 

[WorthyStevens]

I thought Die Hard would do well, just off pass performances. I thought The Simpsons Movie would do very well. If FF 2 had done what I expected ( At least 180 to 200 dom ), it would be # 1 right now. Die Hard is only at 125 domestic. It's not burning up the box office. The Simpsons Movie will be # 1 for Fox.

It doesn't need to. Don't bring down Die Hard's performance just because of FF2's mediocre box office.

 

[tviceman]

I think it may be safe to say that T.F. and H.P. are gonna join the 300 mill club. Five 300 mill dom movies in one summer, mindblowing to say the least.

I don't think Potter will hit $300 million; I think it'll end up being $285-295.

 

[GL's Light]

I thought Die Hard would do well, just off pass performances. I thought The Simpsons Movie would do very well. If FF 2 had done what I expected ( At least 180 to 200 dom ), it would be # 1 right now. Die Hard is only at 125 domestic. It's not burning up the box office. The Simpsons Movie will be # 1 for Fox.

It's a risk releasing a sequel after a 12-year break, but the risk paid off and Die Hard 4 is doing great. It's demonstrated impressive legs and it'll end up with a very good return on its budget.

 

[I Am The Knight]

The Simpsons was very good. I enjoyed it tremendously. So Fox put out a good movie based on a beloved "franchise" for me, finally.

 

[GL's Light]

According to Deadline Hollywood, The Simpsons made $ 96 mil from 71 foreign markets for a total of $ 167 mil worldwide.

 

[GreenKToo]

I don't think Potter will hit $300 million; I think it'll end up being $285-295.

that would make it the 3rd best potter film domesticlly, correct??