June 27, 2007
PRELIMINARY: 'Die Hard' w/$8M-$10M Wednesday; 'Live Free' headed for a 5-day of $35M-$42M
by Steve Mason
WEDNESDAY UPDATE (as of 10:30p pacific: In my original column about
Live Free or Die Hard (Fox) (see below), I projected a Wednesday number in the $8M-$10M range. I now believe that
DH4 will finish the day closer to $8M (maybe even a tick lower). If that number holds up, the film will likely score an estimated 5-day of $34M-$37M and a probable 3-day of $20M-$23M.
Please note: I have a lower-than-usual degree of confidence in my Wednesday number for Die Hard. Ive gotten some conflicting news from my usual sources.
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY WEDNESDAY ESTIMATES
1. Live Free or Die Hard (Fox) - $8M [$8M cume]
2. Evan Almighty (Universal) - $2.88M [$41.6M cume]
3. 1409 (MGM/Weinstein) - $1.69M [$27.4M cume]
4. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (Fox) $1.63M [$103.6M cume]
WEDNESDAY UPDATE (as of 10:30p pacific):
Live Free or Die Hard (Fox) is off to a solid start, but its not headed for the box office stratosphere. One of my studio sources puts the movies opening Wednesday at $8M-$10M and another says $8M is the ceiling. If the $8-$10M range holds up, its fair to expect $35M-$42M for 5 days and $21.5M-$25M for the 3-day. As recently as yesterday, one of my sources felt that $50M for 5 days was possible and others were forecasting a number in the high $40M's, so this is a step down from those lofty predictions.
After the disappointing opening of
Oceans Thirteen (Warner Bros) and the disastrous debut of
Evan Almighty (Universal), Hollywoods sure-fire summer has stalled. Back in May, a fair number of box office analysts were calling for $4 billion in sales, topping the all-time record summer of $3.95 billion in 2004. In Bob Tourtellottes Tuesday story on Reuters, Brandon Gray from Box Office Mojo
says that theres only a slim chance of breaking the all-time summer record, but, in my estimation, the odds could go have gone way up with a meteoric performance by an aging John McClane and the newest
Die Hard.
With sure-things like
Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) and
Harry Potter 5 (Warner Bros) on the horizon, its not too late for Hollywood to get its gravy train back on track, but it wont happen now without a breakout success for
Ratatouille (Buena Vista), which invades Americas multiplexes Friday (6/29). Unfortunately, that may be an uphill climb even for mighty Pixar. Ill cover
Ratatouille, along with
Evening (Focus) and
Sicko (Lionsgate/Weinstein), in my Thursday tracking column.
Maybe, weve all been expecting too much from old man Bruce Willis and the
Die Hard franchise. Its been almost 2 decades since the original franchise-starter, recently named
the best action film of all-time by Entertainment Weekly, and 7 years since
Die Hard: With a Vengeance (
Die Hard 3). The performance of the first 3
Die Hard films isnt as strong as you might think.
1988 Die Hard - $600,000 opening - $83M cume
1990 - Die Hard 2: Die Harder - $21.7M opening - $117.5M cume
1995 - Die Hard with a Vengeance - $22.1M opening - $100M cume
It now appears that
Live Free or Die Hard will not be able to outperform its good-but-not-great tracking. The picture has buzz and the reviews are overwhelmingly positive (
77% Fresh at Rotten Tomatoes and
71% Favorable at MetaCritic.com). Also in its favor is its PG-13 rating. Kids are out of school and Males Under 25 are the strongest demo in tracking (Definite Interest 51% and First Choice 19%). The bottom line is that John McClane is still alive and kicking and performing respectably, but getting this movie to $50M by Monday would be a bigger feat than any of the heroic stunts in
Die Hards 1-4.
http://news.fantasymoguls.com/originalcontent/2007/06/preliminary-die.html