Rise of the Silver Surfer BOX OFFICE Discussion

[highguard]

Economically Marvel's originally selling off the rights made much more sense as they simply couldn't afford to take a chance on making these films themselves. The trade off from avoiding that risk was obviously a loss of creative control and a huge chunk of the film's profits.

Even now, with the greater public recognition of Marvel's name and their characters clearly sparking the decision to finance the films themselves, it is still a risky move on their part: If Iron-Man were to tank (unlikely looking at how well it's shaping up) they really could be in a right spot of bother and might be looking at the Hulk to make or break them in the end.

With DC, they don't really have much creative control at all as the comics group are a subsidiary of Warner Brothers, so when it comes to making the films its the studio that calls all the shots (this explains craptastic efforts like Catwoman and Schumakers Batman).

Very good points, I agree with everything that you said. Marvel now has a brand established and yes they need Iron Man and Hulk to perform or they are done right off the bat.

 

[Kirk Langstrom]

Superman and Batman weren't dark and serious when the Fantastic Four were created in 1961, quite the opposite.

Thank you.

 

[GL's Light]

Friday estimates from SBD:

1. Transformers - $ 22.372 mil ($ 107.293 mil)
2. Ratatouille - $ 9.401 mil ($ 90.009 mil)
3. Die Hard 4 - $ 5.351 mil ($ 72.186 mil)
4. License to Wed - $ 3.684 mil ($ 11.044 mil)
5. Evan Almighty - $ 2.81 mil ($ 72.825 mil)
6. 1408 - $ 2.374 mil ($ 49.125 mil)
7. Knocked Up - $ 1.651 mil ($ 128.621 mil)
8. FF 2 - $ 1.249 mil ($ 120.801 mil)

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

The movie is down 54%. how many big drops can one mid range blockbuster have?

 

[blind_fury]

It's losing alot of theaters. So that doesn't help.

 

[highguard]

54 % drop for a summer tentpole movie is not that huge.

That is about average for the summer.

 

[GL's Light]

54 % drop for a summer tentpole movie is not that huge.

That is about average for the summer.

It's a big drop for a fourth weekend, especially a fourth weekend falling on a holiday weekend, above the average. A lot of blockbusters have had big second weekend drops this summer, but most have stabilized by their third or fourth weekends. FF 2's dropoff pattern has been the steepest of any major release this summer by quite some margin.

 

[Carp Man]

Fridays estimate's are in. FF 2 $ 120,891,000 domestic. $ 203,391,523 WW thru July 6th. TF $ 107,403,000 domestic. $ 143,656,961 WW thru July 6th.

EXCLUSIVE FRIDAY & 3-DAY ESTIMATES: 'Transformers' w/an estimated $24.43M Fri, a 3-day of $67.31M and a $152M cume by Monday morning!; Remy strong with $9.26M Fri and a $33.37M 2nd weekend; 'Die Hard' w/$5.22M Fri and $17.74M frame.

by Steve Mason

FRIDAY NIGHT: Optimus Prime is still the box office king, but the possibility of a $70M+ 3-day for Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) may have slipped away.

Transformers received a 17% bump from Thursday for an estimated Friday take, of $22.43M which is excellent considering that the Michael Bay-directed robot epic had already raked in an estimated $85M from Monday night previews through yesterday’s business. That puts the Transformers total domestic take at $107.3, and it becomes the 20th movie to top the $100M mark in 5 days or less.

In our regular weekly feature called The Scorecard, an average of 8 “expert” sources predicted a 3-day take of $72.26M for Transformers, but that now appears to be a bit high. My sources are pointing to a traditional weekend of $67.31M, which will put the Hasbro-inspired film at $152.21M domestic by Monday morning.

Transformers is already in the box office record books for the all-time biggest Tuesday ($27.85M), the 3rd-best Wednesday in history ($29M, trailing only Spider-Man 2 and Lord of the Rings: Return of the King) and the all-time 5th-best Thursday ($19.17M, behind Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith, The Matrix Reloaded, Star Wars: Episode II – Attack of the Clones and Spider-Man 2). As an original piece of entertainment, it can’t necessarily compete with the modern blockbuster sequels, but its opening 3-day and 4-day grosses (using Tuesday as opening day) are both in the top 5 for non-sequels.


Best Opening 3 days for a Non-Sequel
1. Spider-Man - $114.8M
2. Harry Potter & the Sorcerer’s Stone - $90.2M
3. The Da Vinci Code - $77M
4. Transformers - $76.1M
5. 300 - $70.8M


Best Opening 4 days for a Non-Sequel
1. Spider-Man - $125.8M
2. Transformers - $98.4M
3. The Passion of the Christ - $97.3M
4. Harry Potter & the Sorcerer’s Stone - $96.9M
5. The Da Vinci Code - $85.8M

If the 3-day projection of $67.31M holds up, the Tuesday thru Sunday Transformers gross will be the all-time 7th-best opening 6days for any film and the best for a non-sequel.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $67.31M [$152.21M cume]
2. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) – $33.37M [$113.8M cume]
3. Live Free or Die Hard (Fox) – $17.74M [$84.5M cume]
4. License To Wed (Warner Bros) – $9.84M [$17.2M cume]
5. Evan Almighty (Universal) – $8.02M [$78M cume]
6. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) – $6.57M [$53.2M cume]
7. Knocked Up (Universal) –$5.16M [$132M cume]
8. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (Fox) – $4.26M [$123.9M cume]

http://news.fantasymoguls.com/originalcontent/2007/07/transformers-tr.html

Note : No big surprise. I figured it would have close to $ 200 by Tuesday night. When HP opens then we'll see what legs it has.

 

[The Apatow Crew]

I updated the #'s in my sig.

 

[GreenKToo]

H.P. comes out wednesday right? I think T.F. should be at 180 mill dom by then.

 

[Carp Man]

H.P. comes out wednesday right? I think T.F. should be at 180 mill dom by then.

I don't think there was much question in anyones mind, that it would do very, very well. The key to legs is how well it fairs against HP. Right now HP is set at 4,100 + theaters to open with. So starting Wednesday we will see what legs it has. If it can hold up against HP, then that will be a big plus. I just do not think it has the mass appeal needed to hold up. Kids will want to see HP, in droves. More than once. Parents need to take kids to the movie. Teen girls will want to see HP. Where is TF's legs going to come from ? Noone has given me ananswer outside of everyone will. Who's everyone ? Fanboys, that's it as far as I can see.

 

[X-Maniac]

I don't think there was much question in anyones mind, that it would do very, very well. The key to legs is how well it fairs against HP. Right now HP is set at 4,100 + theaters to open with. So starting Wednesday we will see what legs it has. If it can hold up against HP, then that will be a big plus. I just do not think it has the mass appeal needed to hold up. Kids will want to see HP, in droves. More than once. Parents need to take kids to the movie. Teen girls will want to see HP. Where is TF's legs going to come from ? Noone has given me ananswer outside of everyone will. Who's everyone ? Fanboys, that's it as far as I can see.

Transformers hasn't even opened in the UK, and isn't opening until the end of the month. We get Harry Potter here this Thursday.

A friend at work has a son who she says will be very keen to see Transformers, as there is apparently a currently-running animated series and he watches that.

It might also build up good word of mouth, though it is rather long.

 

[Carp Man]

Transformers hasn't even opened in the UK, and isn't opening until the end of the month. We get Harry Potter here this Thursday.

A friend at work has a son who she says will be very keen to see Transformers, as there is apparently a currently-running animated series and he watches that.

It might also build up good word of mouth, though it is rather long.

Overseas I expected it to do very well. They go for that robot distruction stuff over there. Domestic legs is what I'm talking about. Here in the U.S.A. The studio knows it will be slim pickings after HP opens. Why else would they start on the 3rd, 3 days early ? This movie is so front end loaded it's not funny.

 

[Tony Stark]

It's a big drop for a fourth weekend, especially a fourth weekend falling on a holiday weekend, above the average. A lot of blockbusters have had big second weekend drops this summer, but most have stabilized by their third or fourth weekends. FF 2's dropoff pattern has been the steepest of any major release this summer by quite some margin.

It's not a holiday weekend, but yes the drops have been steep. Mainly because the competition is in the same demographic.

It still looks like it will make 4.5 million or so which is about what I expected.

 

[Carp Man]

I updated the #'s in my sig.

Tks. t:

 

[Carp Man]

It's a big drop for a fourth weekend, especially a fourth weekend falling on a holiday weekend, above the average. A lot of blockbusters have had big second weekend drops this summer, but most have stabilized by their third or fourth weekends. FF 2's dropoff pattern has been the steepest of any major release this summer by quite some margin.

Look at the competition. TF's, LFODH, Rat. 4.5 is pretty good. That's 683,891 going to see it. 227,964 per day.

 

[GL's Light]

It's not a holiday weekend, but yes the drops have been steep. Mainly because the competition is in the same demographic.

It still looks like it will make 4.5 million or so which is about what I expected.

Well, the holiday fell on Wednesday, making it part of this 5-day weekend.

With a $ 1.25 mil Friday, FF 2 would need an internal multiplier of 3.6 to make $ 4.5 mil this weekend. It's unlikely to achieve that. The multiplier will probably be about 3.3, which would give it a $ 4.1 mil weekend.

 

[Pickle-El]

I don't think there was much question in anyones mind, that it would do very, very well. The key to legs is how well it fairs against HP. Right now HP is set at 4,100 + theaters to open with. So starting Wednesday we will see what legs it has. If it can hold up against HP, then that will be a big plus. I just do not think it has the mass appeal needed to hold up. Kids will want to see HP, in droves. More than once. Parents need to take kids to the movie. Teen girls will want to see HP. Where is TF's legs going to come from ? Noone has given me ananswer outside of everyone will. Who's everyone ? Fanboys, that's it as far as I can see.

This is a hilarious post Carpy......You do realize that TF is ALREADY showing amazing legs this early on. It's doing just as well as Spiderman 2's start in 04'. I wish SR had done this last year.....

Who do you think is watching TF right now? Little kids don't cause the kind of havoc on the BO themselves that TF is doing. This film will cross 200 million dollars with no problem, and any film that crosses that mark is considered a "blockbuster". What we should be asking is, does this have the legs to cross into 300 million domestic territory.

 

[Advanced Dark]

This is a hilarious post Carpy......You do realize that TF is ALREADY showing amazing legs this early on. It's doing just as well as Spiderman 2's start in 04'. I wish SR had done this last year.....

Who do you think is watching TF right now? Little kids don't cause the kind of havoc on the BO themselves that TF is doing. This film will cross 200 million dollars with no problem, and any film that crosses that mark is considered a "blockbuster". What we should be asking is, does this have the legs to cross into 300 million domestic territory.

I don't see 300.

 

[GreenKToo]

300 is possible but doubtful. If H.P. were a few weeks further away, then yeah, 300 would be very possible.
I say about 250/275 dom now, which is up from my previous estimate of 225/250.

 

[Sentinel X]

So how do you guys see FF2 finishing up worldwide?

I think it'll do 300- 310 million...hopefully

 

[GreenKToo]

I originally was thinking F4 2 would do around 150/160 dom., but now its looking more like 130/135 dom. So yeah, I would say around 300 W.W.

 

[Tony Stark]

This is a hilarious post Carpy......You do realize that TF is ALREADY showing amazing legs this early on. It's doing just as well as Spiderman 2's start in 04'. I wish SR had done this last year.....

Who do you think is watching TF right now? Little kids don't cause the kind of havoc on the BO themselves that TF is doing. This film will cross 200 million dollars with no problem, and any film that crosses that mark is considered a "blockbuster". What we should be asking is, does this have the legs to cross into 300 million domestic territory.

It's not a hillarious post. Just about every huge film this summer had a 60% drop in week 2. Everyone knew the film would open big, but you know Harry Potter will take the no. 1 spot on Wednesday and the weekend.

You can't "show good legs" when the film has been out less than a week.

We'll see how it holds up next weekend.

 

[GL's Light]

Weekend estimates from BOM:

1. Transformers - $ 67.6 mil; $ 152.5 mil so far
2. Ratatoiulle - $ 29.029 mil (- 38.3%); $ 109.546 mil so far
3. Die Hard 4 - $ 17.4 mil (- 47.9%); $ 84.16 mil so far
4. License to Wed - $ 10.4 mil; $ 17.816 mil so far
5. Evan Almighty - $ 8.114 mil (- 46.4%); $ 78.101 mil so far
6. 1408 - $ 7.14 mil (- 33.0%); $ 53.789 mil so far
7. Knocked Up - $ 5.159 mil (- 29.4%); $ 132.0126 so far
8. FF 2 - $ 4.15 mil (- 54.6%); $ 123.791 mil so far

If the actuals hold up, Transformers will take the record for the biggest opening week for a non-sequel (previously held by Spider-Man).

 

[Carp Man]

Weekend estimates are in thru 7-8. FF 2 $ 123,791,000 domestic. $ 206,291,523 WW. TF $ 152,500,000 domestic. $ 188,753,961 WW. Once again, no surprise with TF. Thought it would have close to $ 200 by Wednesday morning, then it will get interesting.