Ant-Man Box Office Predictions

[kedrell]

Keep in mind though these numbers are only for production budgets.

Also $127 million worldwide doesn't equate to an automatic $87 million in profit to the studio.

Most every film has broken even at least if it's WW total is at least 2X of it's production budget and everything beyond that is usually pure profit. Sure there are some exceptions where the studio has over spent on advertising(GL and TASM2 come to mind) but most are not like this.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Most every film has broken even at least if it's WW total is at least 2X of it's production budget and everything beyond that is usually pure profit. Sure there are some exceptions where the studio has over spent on advertising(GL and TASM2 come to mind) but most are not like this.

That isn't how it works. 2x production budget never covers expenses, because marketing is well over $50m for almost all blockbusters. Plus overseas take is closer to 40%, and less in China.

That being said, after seeing it today, they better make enough for sequel. I need to see [BLACKOUT]Hope's Wasp.[/BLACKOUT]

 

[KangConquers]

The problem for Ant-Man probably won't be breaking even. It should do at least 3 times it's budget worldwide. The problem will be competing with 6 other Marvel films for 3-4 sequel spots in phase 4.

 

[InCali]

I hated pretty much all the sequels to recent comedies who's originals I loved.

- Anchorman 2
- Dumber and Dumber 2
- Hot Tub Time Machine 2
- 22 Jump Street
- Horrible Bosses 2

That's the thing about comedies. You're going to get opinions that are all over the map. They either hit with people or not. And, I agree, sequels generally kind of stink. Not always, but generally. I know a lot of people love Will Ferrell and he isn't afraid to put himself out on a limb, but I find a lot of his stuff humorous in an embarrassing sort of way and I just can't quite connect with it.

He must do okay at the BO too? If he wasn't bankable, he would continually be making an idiot out of himself on screen.

 

[InCali]

The problem for Ant-Man probably won't be breaking even. It should do at least 3 times it's budget worldwide. The problem will be competing with 6 other Marvel films for 3-4 sequel spots in phase 4.

It should do well over that IMO and I agree about the sequel. I'm sure we'll see

Spoiler

Hope

anyway, but I loved the movie, thought it was one of Marvel's best (albeit unusual) efforts and want a sequel.....of course, I haven't seen Dr. Strange, Captain Marvel, Black Panther, Inhumans.......there could definitely be some tough competition waiting in the wings. If so, that's a good thing for us.

 

[GL's Light]

That isn't how it works. 2x production budget never covers expenses, because marketing is well over $50m for almost all blockbusters. Plus overseas take is closer to 40%, and less in China.

I think Kedrell was referring to the overall, big picture business model, including home entertainment revenues. A gross of 2X production budget isn't enough to turn a profit against total costs from theatrical revenues alone, but taking everything into account, all costs and revenues, movies that have a worldwide gross of 2X production budget will usually reach break even, while 2.5X production budget will usually lead to decent profits.

 

[JKKS085]

There are definitely other factors at play than bo numbers to determine wether or not Ant-Man will get a sequel in the foreseeable future. The MCU is getting more and more crowded and complex and a sequel will also have to be justified by the need to make the global story progress in a specific direction (wether it's to introduce new characters, tech or concepts like the "quantum realm" that would be too heavy to fit in a crossover film).
The old thinkings that may apply to more traditional franchises in their usual progression on screen, are less and less relevant the bigger the MCU gets. Otherwise Feige & Co. would have found a way to fit a sequel to the 1.2B Iron Man 3 in Phase 3 when they renewed RDJ's contract.

But if it was just a matter of profitability, like some said despite being the Marvel Studios film facing the biggest competition, opening after the record breaking Jurassic World and featuring one of the most obscure character in their mythos, Ant-Man is still on track to make around or exceed the box office take of the more expensive Thor and Captain America The First Avenger.

 

[GL's Light]

Otherwise Feige & Co. would have found a way to fit a sequel to the 1.2B Iron Man 3 in Phase 3 when they renewed RDJ's contract.

Ant-Man may not get a sequel despite a good ROI because it's competing with a crowded field of Marvel properties. That I agree with. But the absence of another Iron Man sequel from Marvel's plans has more to do with RDJ's wishes than anything else.

 

[JKKS085]

Ant-Man may not get a sequel despite a good ROI because it's competing with a crowded field of Marvel properties. That I agree with. But the absence of another Iron Man sequel from Marvel's plans has more to do with RDJ's wishes than anything else.

That theory was believable before he renewed his contract and pushed Marvel to make him a part, or a bigger part of Civil War. Originally he was only meant to do one film after AOU. I'm pretty sure he'd be down for another solo movie. That's not different from being heavily involved in a crossover film.

 

[GL's Light]

That theory was believable before he renewed his contract and pushed Marvel to make him a part, or a bigger part of Civil War. Originally he was only meant to do one film after AOU. I'm pretty sure he'd be down for another solo movie. That's not different from being heavily involved in a crossover film.

The schedule requirements are quite different for a solo film. The Civil War deal seemed like a smart compromise between RDJ and Marvel as a way to utilize him and the box office mojo he brings to an MCU release while not putting as much of a strain on him as shouldering another solo release.

 

[Tony Stark]

Ant-man is running ahead of FF'05, and TIH during the weekdays. Since both of those had 59-60% drops in their second week, that bodes well for Ant-man having a stronger hold, plus it's facing some pretty weak competition. However I do think Pixels is going to have the nostalgia draw, forget about it being an Adam Sandler film, I think people are looking forward to seeing classic video games all on the big screen.

They are predicting Minions to have a Shrek the Third recovery, which is understandable as both seems to be following the same trending, and both films seem to have equal bad reviews among critics and audience.

Todays numbers should give us some more insight to the weekend.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

The problem for Ant-Man probably won't be breaking even. It should do at least 3 times it's budget worldwide. The problem will be competing with 6 other Marvel films for 3-4 sequel spots in phase 4.

It's amazing that Marvel's biggest problem right now seems to be which characters they want to franchise due to being so profitable. That is the epitome of first world problems in the film industry

That's the thing about comedies. You're going to get opinions that are all over the map. They either hit with people or not. And, I agree, sequels generally kind of stink. Not always, but generally. I know a lot of people love Will Ferrell and he isn't afraid to put himself out on a limb, but I find a lot of his stuff humorous in an embarrassing sort of way and I just can't quite connect with it.

He must do okay at the BO too? If he wasn't bankable, he would continually be making an idiot out of himself on screen.

In general I'm fairly easy to please when it comes to comedy. I love all types of humor and tend to connect with most stuff. The only comedy film I can think of that I really disliked when I saw it was Andy Samberg's Hot Rod. Not sure why but I hated that film. I love comedy though, it's one of my favorite things in the world. From stand-up to tv shows and movies. I just love to laugh and smile

 

[SomeOldGuy]

BO reporting Pixels did $1.5 million, Paper Towns $2 million in Thursday previews. Hard to say if that's indicative of anything, but there it is anyway.

 

[InCali]

BO reporting Pixels did $1.5 million, Paper Towns $2 million in Thursday previews. Hard to say if that's indicative of anything, but there it is anyway.

From what I've heard, I would have expected Pixels to have more?? Not sure exactly why that is or what that means either. The predictions I read seem to have the top 4 movies all crowded about the mid-twenties. Not bad for holdovers, but seems low for Pixels. Maybe bad reviews are catching up with it.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

From what I've heard, I would have expected Pixels to have more?? Not sure exactly why that is or what that means either. The predictions I read seem to have the top 4 movies all crowded about the mid-twenties. Not bad for holdovers, but seems low for Pixels. Maybe bad reviews are catching up with it.

Could be. OTOH Trainwreck had just $1.8 million in previews and ended up with a $30 million OW. But yeah, if you're Sony you have to to be grinding your teeth at the early numbers, not to mention a flood of reviews that say your star, Sandler, basically sleepwalks through the movie.

 

[InCali]

The Mission Impossible reviews are starting to roll in and, so far, it seems to be reviewing pretty well. The critics aren't gaga crazy over it (like I could care), but it's not getting panned either. RT has it at 94% so far (no consensus). It's being described in a way that indicates I'll like it. A popcorn movie.

That trailer with Tom Cruise on the outside of a jet taking off was pretty frelling wild. On one hand, I'd really like to do something like that. On the other hand........

 

[GL's Light]

Ant-Man - $4,707,439 (-8%) for a domestic gross of $81,310,529 so far.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

The Mission Impossible reviews are starting to roll in and, so far, it seems to be reviewing pretty well. The critics aren't gaga crazy over it (like I could care), but it's not getting panned either. RT has it at 94% so far (no consensus). It's being described in a way that indicates I'll like it. A popcorn movie.

That trailer with Tom Cruise on the outside of a jet taking off was pretty frelling wild. On one hand, I'd really like to do something like that. On the other hand........

I expect MI:RN to make a boatload of money on OW. It really hit a sweet spot in the release schedule IMO.

Good Thursday number for Ant-Man!

 

[Mister J]

Leave the senseless studio war chatter out of it. That includes responding to it. Report it, respond in a manner that doesn't escalate it or ignore it.

On a note that involves less hooting and hollering, if Pixels makes more money than Ant-Man this weekend, I'm going on a rampage. Mind you, that rampage will likely be carried out through some PS3 or PS4 vehicle, but the point stands.

 

[Tony Stark]

Ant-Man - $4,707,439 (-8%) for a domestic gross of $81,310,529 so far.

That's running about 100K ahead of FF'05, and 600K ahead of TIH for the same Thursday. FF only had a 46% increase from Thurs - Fri where TIH had a 56% increase.

Following TIH it would have a 7.5M Friday and a 25M weekend.

Following FF'05 it would have about a 7M Friday and 24M weekend

Following CA TFA's multiplier it would be 7M and 23M for the weekend

If it had Thor's weekend multiplier it would be about 27.5-28M, but Thor is probably the lease comparable as it had a 127% bump Thurs-Fri due to it being a May release.

However as far as competition is concerned Thor might be the most comparable. FF'05 competed with Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, TIH competed with Get Smart remake with Steve Carell, and Cap had Cowboys and Aliens.

I still don't get a read on Pixels. I would equally not be surprised by it totally bombing, or being alot bigger than the projections. Everything about the film says it's going to bomb, but I can see the Gen X'ers and their young children making it a hit, much like TMNT.

 

[Dark Raven]

So it's the weekend now. A whole week later after Ant-Man opened. Will WOM give it a better showing in the next few days? Or are people still sceptical of the whole concept? It seems like a movie people have to be dragged to, but only once they're there, they end up enjoying it.

 

[JtheDreamer]

It seems like a movie people have to be dragged to, but only once they're there, they end up enjoying it.

All because of the name. I knew that would be the case though. Just glad it turned out to be a quality flick.

 

[Mister J]

I know people of that mind too; can't get over the name and power set. Hopefully, the quality and good WOM can overcome that and we see some staying power near the top of the BO results... or 'legs', as the kids say.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I'm hoping Ant-Man can stay ahead of Mad Max at the same point even though Mad Max had healthy Memorial Day bump.

 

[GL's Light]

The Hollywood Reporter is saying Pixels could open to $30 million based on its early Friday numbers. That estimate could shift quite a bit, though, as more numbers became available. They're currently expecting Paper Towns to perform below expectations with an opening in the mid- to high teens.