Advice & Analysis: Weekly Tracking
Advice & Analysis: Reviews
July 02, 2007
<H3 class=entry-header>EXCLUSIVE THURSDAY ESTIMATES: 'Transformers' dips 37% to $18.31M - 3 1/2-day cume is $84M; Exit surveys show 90% of moviegoers rate 'Transformers' Excellent or Very Good; 'Ratatouille' adds $7.24M; 'Die Hard 4' slides to $3.37M</H3><H3 class=author-header>by Steve Mason</H3>After Wednesdays box office fireworks, Thursday was destined to be much quieter, but it was still a relatively strong day across the board. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) followed up its $29M+ Independence Day with an estimated $18.31M, down about 37%. The Hasbro-inspired, Michael Bay-directed picture now has a massive 3 1/2 day cume of $84M. Disney/Pixars Ratatouille dipped an only 29% to something on the order of $7.24M. Thats an excellent hold for Remy and company, and the animated masterpiece is just shy of $80M domestic. Old man John McClane and Die Hard 4 (Fox) took a steeper 44% drop to an estimated $3.37M on Thursday. Live Free or Die Hards domestic haul is now just over $66M.
The horribly-reviewed Robin Williams-Mandy Moore comedy License to Wed (Warner Bros) managed only $2.13M, and its 3-day gross of $7.3M isnt a good omen for the coming weekend. In all, 7 movies grabbed $1M or more on Thursday, and Pirates of the Caribbean: At Worlds End (Buena Vista) added an estimated $644,000, and its now within $1.4M of the magical $300M mark.
Looking ahead to the weekend, one of my sources passed along some exit survey data for Transformers. Im told that 90% of those surveyed rate the blockbuster as Excellent or Very Good. Thats a staggering percentage in the top 2 boxes. There are a couple of other interesting wrinkles in the exit polls.
The softest quadrant in industry tracking has been, not surprisingly, Females 25 Plus. Lets face it, Transformers is a "guy movie", and adult females have demonstrated the least interest in seeing the Autobots and Decepticons go to war. On the way out of theatres however, the quadrant with the highest percentage that will Definitely Recommend the movie is Females 25 Plus. Also, the massive Monday-Thursday turnout has been mostly a traditional moviegoing audience as opposed to a family film audience. It may be that Ratatouille is the First Choice of those looking for a family movie. If that same crowd starts showing up for Transformers this weekend, the grosses could be even bigger than expected in the next few days.
One studio exec that I spoke to about Transformers this evening is looking for $26M Friday, $28M Saturday and $21M Sunday. That would be a $75M 3-day weekend and 7-day take of $159M. That seems a bit high to me, but $150M+ is a real possibility. EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY THURSDAY ESTIMATES
1. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) $18.31M down 37% [$84M cume]
2. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) $7.24M down 29% [$79.8M cume]
3. Live Free or Die Hard (Fox) $3.37M down 44% [$66.4M cume]
4. License To Wed (Warner Bros) $2.13M down 28% [$7.3M cume]
5. Evan Almighty (Universal) $1.87M - down 34% [$69.7M cume]
6. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) $1.4M down 13% [$46.5M cume]
7. Knocked Up (Universal) $1.02M down 23% [$126.7M cume]
8. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (Fox) $891,000 down 40% [$118.6M cume]
9. Pirates of the Caribbean: At Worlds End (Buena Vista) - $644,800 down 22% [$298.6M cume]
10. Oceans Thirteen (Warner Bros) $657,800 down 41% [$105.4M cume]
11. Sicko (Lionsgate/Weinstein) $626,400 down 46% [$7.8M cume]
12. Evening (Focus) $551,300 down 31% [$5.4M cume]
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