Box office*

[psylockolussus]

I don't see this opening over a hundred million or even outgross Brave New World's 88 million 3 day weekend in North America. I think somewhere in the 70s would be its best shot, and if the reviews/CinemaScore are good, maybe it could climb over $150 million.

Worldwide, Brave New World grossed less than $200 million in its opening weekend. I don't think see this making more. I don't see it hitting the $500 million mark. $400 million, maybe if the movie is good*

 

[legendkillin]

Not really looking forward to this, but even if the movie is good I think it struggles. Majority of the audience won't know the characters or remember to care. I really liked Yelena in BW one of the few good things in that movie. She maybe able to carry the movie for awhile, but Ghost & Taskmaster were forgettable. You had to watch Falcon & WS to know Walker and that show was not good enough to make me rewatch. Sentry is unknown and likely won't get much time.

Bucky, Red Guardian, & Yelena have to do heavy lifting. This won't do well and it really doesn't seem like they set future stories up for casuals to bother.

 

[psylockolussus]

Bucky and the star power of Florence are the only draws here. This is exactly the line up Disney+ could use, if they want to launch a new team composing of people we saw in previous MCU movies/shows. And thats the problem*

 

[SJD]

If the film continues to build momentum (the marketing has been great so far) and if it is well received by both critics and the general audience, I don't see why this film can't make around $750-800 million worldwide.

 

[lenz]

If the film continues to build momentum (the marketing has been great so far) and if it is well received by both critics and the general audience, I don't see why this film can't make around $750-800 million worldwide.

I think that's too much for a new franchise with relatively unknown characters considering the current the state of the MCU. I basically see a regression of box office potential. The aperture for projects outside of bigger names has basically been narrowed back to phase 1 - lower phase 2 levels. If the film is really good maybe it could hit the 700m + level, but I think 600-650m is the higher end of the spectrum. So 500-550m more realistic.

I'd wager Marvel would be happy with that # if the film is received well.

 

[BoredGuy]

I could see it only opening in the 80m range (domestically)
But I feel like it'll get good WoM and have great legs making it to $500m+
fingers crossed

 

[psylockolussus]

If the film continues to build momentum (the marketing has been great so far) and if it is well received by both critics and the general audience, I don't see why this film can't make around $750-800 million worldwide.

This is too much optimism. There were only FOUR movies in 2024, that grossed over $750 million worldwide - Inside Out 2, Deadpool & Wolverine, Moana 2 and Despicable Me 4.

Even Wicked, with all of its popularity couldn't even clear 750 million globally*

 

[Chris B]

$400-550 million sounds right to me.

 

[psylockolussus]

Box Office: Is Captain America 4's box office failure a warning for Marvels’ Thunderbolts?

Marvels’ latest release Captain America: Brave New World has failed at the global box office. Is this a sign of caution for their next release Thunderbolts?

www.pinkvilla.com

 

[nachtschicht]

Sidekick Cap didn't get my ticket, but these guys will. More sidekicks, more money?

 

[psylockolussus]

MCU'S SUMMER MOVIES
MAY OR LATE APRIL RELEASE
2008 Iron Man (318M/585M)
2010 Iron Man 2 (312M/623M)
2011 Thor (181M/449M)
2012 Avengers (623M/1.5B)
2013 Iron Man 3 (409M/1.2B)
2015 Age of Ultron (459M/1.4B)
2016 Civil War (408M/1.1B)
2017 Guardians 2 (389M/863M)
2018 Infinity War (678M/2B)
2019 Endgame (858M/2.7B)
2022 Multiverse of Madness (411M/955M)
2023 Guardians 3 (358M/845M)
2025 Thunderbolts*

JUNE TO AUGUST RELEASE
2008 Incredible Hulk (134M/264M)
2011 First Avenger (176M/370M)
2014 Guardians (333M/772M)
2015 Ant-Man (180M/519M)
2017 Homecoming (334M/880M)
2018 Ant-Man 2 (216M/622M)
2019 Far from Home (390M/1.1B)
2021 Black Widow (183M/379M)
2022 Love and Thunder (343M/760M)
2024 Deadpool & Wolverine (636M/1.3B)
2025 Fantastic 4

 

[mace1]

New thundebolts trailer talk and the budget is talked about here too.

Marvel's Thunderbolts New Trailer So Good It Raised Box Office Projections​

 

[psylockolussus]

Whats the budget because I ain't gonna watch that video*

 

[mace1]

Whats the budget because I ain't gonna watch that video*

150 million and john talked about the break even point is 375 or 400 million.

 

[psylockolussus]

150 million and john talked about the break even point is 375 or 400 million.

Minus Sentry, this easily could be made under 75 to 125 million. But I am not going to complain. I'd rather have these expensive movies (even though some of those movies don't look like they used that budget wisely), than cheap-looking action movies.

I let the studio/production company worry about recouping their budget*

 

[lenz]

150m is a good number. Budgets were getting out of hand.

 

[psylockolussus]

Considering who's in the movie, 150 million is actually big. Like just compare it to these movies.

$140million - Iron Man 2008
$120million - Deadpool 2
$97million - Logan 2017
$58million - Deadpool 2016

Of course pricing is different in those years but $150 million is still big in 2025. There's no Ryan Reynolds or Hugh Jackman to pay. I'm curious how would a Marvel Studios production for a movie would look like under a budget of less than $100 million*

 

[lenz]

It's a lot but still considerably less than recent budgets. It's a phase 1 back to basics approch in terms of budget and probably expectations.

 

[psylockolussus]

Considering the box office trends in the last two years, they could have spent less than $150 million if they are really being mindful about the budget. This film doesn't have a big name compare to Ryan Reynolds/Hugh Jackman/Tom Holland. In comparison to other Marvel movies, its $50 to $100 million cheaper compare to Spider-Man movies. Thunderbolts* is unlikely to make half of the least grossing live action Spider-Man movie (TASM2).

Either way, I really shouldn't complain since its not like I want this to be an ongoing franchise. I'd also rather see an expensive movie that underperforms at the box office, than a cheap looking movie. But $150 million is still big for an untested ip like Thunderbolts, which is unlikely imo to become a big box office hit. Remove the threat of Sentry, it also looks like an original Disney+ content*

 

[lenz]

Considering the box office trends in the last two years, they could have spent less than $150 million if they are really being mindful about the budget. This film doesn't have a big name compare to Ryan Reynolds/Hugh Jackman/Tom Holland. In comparison to other Marvel movies, its $50 to $100 million cheaper compare to Spider-Man movies. Thunderbolts* is unlikely to make half of the least grossing live action Spider-Man movie (TASM2).

Either way, I really shouldn't complain since its not like I want this to be an ongoing franchise. I'd also rather see an expensive movie that underperforms at the box office, than a cheap looking movie. But $150 million is still big for an untested ip like Thunderbolts, which is unlikely imo to become a big box office hit. Remove the threat of Sentry, it also looks like an original Disney+ content*

I agree they need to spend less. Look at something like Daredevil, it's getting mediocre ratings compared to inferior projects and characters released on Disney this past year. They have diluted expectation with their audience to the point they need to downscale out of necessity.

The plus is something like Daredevil and other street level characters could be done extremely well for 100m or less in film, and generally cheaper on a series.

 

[psylockolussus]

Logan and Deadpool 1 were both made under 100 million and didn't look like straight to streaming movies. Deadpool 2's budget was 120 million which was the same budget as X-Men 2. Fox was being cheap but considering today's box office numbers, Disney should definitely be more mindful. A smaller budget would have been wiser for Thunderbolts*. The next movie for Spider-Man, Avengers, Dr. Strange and Black Panther are likely going to cost at least $200 million but those movies are going to be sequels*

 

[Mysteryman]

IM cost,$140 million? Guess they made their money back, considering how often they have continued to use him.

 

[Zyraquis]

I read somewhere the production cost is like 180m. Given the current projection opening weekend at 80m this unfortunately will probably end up in another loss unless it breaks out and does much better than the typical 2-2.3x OW run.

 

[Business Time]

I'm watching this one closely. It will be a testament to whether general audiences are still open to giving new comicbook movie properties a chance.

After Endgame, every new Comicbook movie property (that wasn't part of an existing brand franchise) has underperformed or straight-up flopped.

Birds of Prey - Flopped

New Mutants - Flopped

Black Widow - Underperformed. No sequel. (However, some of this can be attributed to the pandemic release model).

Shang-Chi - Underperformed/Potentially Flopped. Sequel DOA

Eternals - Flopped

The Marvels (Rebranded, not called 'Captain Marvel' anymore domestically) - Flopped

Black Adam - Flopped

Blue Beetle - Flopped

Madame Web - Flopped

Kraven - Flopped

Morbius - Flopped

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I'm watching this one closely. It will be a testament to whether general audiences are still open to giving new comicbook movie properties a chance.

After Endgame, every new Comicbook movie property (that wasn't part of an existing brand franchise) has underperformed or straight-up flopped.

Birds of Prey - Flopped

New Mutants - Flopped

Black Widow - Underperformed. No sequel. (However, some of this can be attributed to the pandemic release model).

Shang-Chi - Underperformed/Potentially Flopped. Sequel DOA

Eternals - Flopped

The Marvels (Rebranded, not called 'Captain Marvel' anymore domestically) - Flopped

Black Adam - Flopped

Blue Beetle - Flopped

Madame Web - Flopped

Kraven - Flopped

Morbius - Flopped

If you're counting the Marvels, wouldn't you need to include Deadpool and Wolverine?