Coronavirus and its possible impact on upcoming MCU productions

[Kuwolski]

Subscriptions/sign-ups have increased across the board the last few weeks, but the issue is that Disney + is only 5 months old and just launched in western Europe last week, and in India today. Still more markets to come in the next year or so, but it needs more time to get the global reach and scale/saturation necessary to make it worthwhile. Other studios haven't even launched their service yet.

Theatrical is absolutely the way to go, especially to recoup your losses ASAP. That being said, if the virus continues longer then expected due to government incompetence, people losing discipline, future mutations, etc., the streaming option may be the only choice. I speculated in the BW box office thread that Disney and other studios would likely ask for streaming commitments and/or extensions from current subscribers as a way to make up-for the loss of theatrical revenue if the OTT route was taken with their major tentpoles.

 

[TheVileOne]

Subscriptions/sign-ups have increased across the board the last few weeks, but the issue is that Disney + is only 5 months old and just launched in western Europe last week, and in India today. Still more markets to come in the next year or so, but it needs more time to get the global reach and scale/saturation necessary to make it worthwhile. Other studios haven't even launched their service yet.

Theatrical is absolutely the way to go, especially to recoup your losses ASAP. That being said, if the virus continues longer then expected due to government incompetence, people losing discipline, future mutations, etc., the streaming option may be the only choice. I speculated in the BW box office thread that Disney and other studios would likely ask for streaming commitments and/or extensions from current subscribers as a way to make up-for the loss of theatrical revenue if the OTT route was taken with their major tentpoles.

OK but there's no reason to rush to a decision like Black Widow streaming only right now. THat's a worst case scenario last resort IMO.

 

[Albright]

Spider-Man can still make the date if they film around July. But even if it moves, I don't see it being a full year delay for Spider-Man. October was good to them with Venom, so maybe Spider-Man could go there.

I guess Sony will make everything possible, that the Spiderman movie won‘t get delayed. It guarantees more success at the box-office than a movie version of a video game

 

[psylockolussus]

They should only release something straight to streaming if its potentially a boX office bomb like Artemis Fowl and the New Mutants.

But they could get somuch with a Theaterical release then vod/streaming release/cable/DVD three months later than just an eXclusive streaming release. Also the movies that D+ have released so far are quite low key releases. They felt like a counterpart of straight to DVD movies from the last three decades. Disney+ is also unavailable in lots of countries.

 

[psylockolussus]

They forgot Black Panther 2 in May 2022.

It didn't move and they didn't delay it. They've only announced new dates, duh.

 

[Kuwolski]

OK but there's no reason to rush to a decision like Black Widow streaming only right now. THat's a worst case scenario last resort IMO.

Definitely agree. I was basically making the point that despite the uptick in the streaming world, it's still years away from being an ideal option. Like you said, it a last resort decision that I hope doesn't need to be made.

 

[Yowza]

Subscriptions/sign-ups have increased across the board the last few weeks, but the issue is that Disney + is only 5 months old and just launched in western Europe last week, and in India today. Still more markets to come in the next year or so, but it needs more time to get the global reach and scale/saturation necessary to make it worthwhile. Other studios haven't even launched their service yet.

Theatrical is absolutely the way to go, especially to recoup your losses ASAP. That being said, if the virus continues longer then expected due to government incompetence, people losing discipline, future mutations, etc., the streaming option may be the only choice. I speculated in the BW box office thread that Disney and other studios would likely ask for streaming commitments and/or extensions from current subscribers as a way to make up-for the loss of theatrical revenue if the OTT route was taken with their major tentpoles.

Yeah, but SVOD just lacks the event buzz to generate the revenue waves necessary for movie studio's to really spend as much as they have on some of these megablockbusters on as frequent of basis. There's less overhead and new content keeps the steadily rising income of course but the drive to make expensive tentpoles with the promise of predicted success isn't there as much as spreading out costs to keep newer content going.

Other forms of VOD as @Darkprime suggested such as rentals I agree are better to make up cost overhead than SVOD for the most part. Sometimes films like Cloverfield Paradox have gone SVOD but that's due to the studio just essentially taking a certain amount of money to sell it off to Netflix to meet a lowbar when the film wasn't tracking well.

New release streaming rentals available before being able to buy that equate to the price of a movie ticket are where things are right now but I doubt too many movies will go that route. The event or buzz of the social outing are lacking... Of course this doesn't stop some theaters from trying to create an event still though through seeing select films with showings at set times seen streamed off their website that they call "virtual viewing": Plimoth Cinema offers movie viewing alternative

What this all boils down to is people willing to shell out cash for streaming rentals on a wider basis (think live viewing event of some sort) but even that I don't think would capture the social outing $ that studios get from theater going. Now, these mega 4K TV's and entertainment rooms are becoming increasingly common for various income levels even in tight apartment spaces... If Virtual viewing as Pilmoth is doing is augmented by Virtual Reality devices or some sort of live event streamed through one's huge 4K TV, I can see an additional limited avenue for studios here too but still a social outing or going out and a timed buzz is going to be hard to replace. Mega-tentpole events as we know it are going to be downscaled for a while with other avenues coming to the forefront as the theater industry gradually thaws off from Covid-19 aftereffects on social habits but will rebound it's just I can't see Marvel Studio's able to release as many movies in theaters per year now.

 

[Kuwolski]

Yeah, but SVOD just lacks the event buzz to generate the revenue waves necessary for movie studio's to really spend as much as they have on some of these megablockbusters on as frequent of basis. There's less overhead and new content keeps the steadily rising income of course but the drive to make expensive tentpoles with the promise of predicted success isn't there as much as spreading out costs to keep newer content going.

Other forms of VOD as @Darkprime suggested such as rentals I agree are better to make up cost overhead than SVOD for the most part. Sometimes films like Cloverfield Paradox have gone SVOD but that's due to the studio just essentially taking a certain amount of money to sell it off to Netflix to meet a lowbar when the film wasn't tracking well.

New release streaming rentals available before being able to buy that equate to the price of a movie ticket are where things are right now but I doubt too many movies will go that route. The event or buzz of the social outing are lacking... Of course this doesn't stop some theaters from trying to create an event still though through virtual viewing: Plimoth Cinema offers movie viewing alternative

What this all boils down to is people willing to shell out cash for streaming rentals on a wider basis (think live viewing event of some sort) but even that I don't think would capture the social outing $ that studios get from theater going. Now, these mega 4K TV's and entertainment rooms are becoming increasingly common for various income levels even in tight apartment spaces... If Virtual viewing also goes up, I can see an additional avenue for studios here too but still a social outing or going out and a timed buzz is going to be hard to replace. Mega-tentpole events as we know it are going to be downscaled for a while with other avenues coming to the forefront as the theater industry gradually thaws off from Covid-19 aftereffects on social habits but will rebound it's just I can't see Marvel Studio's able to release as many movies in theaters per year now.

I agree with a lot of this, and again, I discussed in the BW box office thread the ways that VOD could be used to attract/sign-up/retain customers within the streaming platforms. Or you could just go with the more standard VOD window before going to streaming. I'm sure execs at the studios have worked out/considered (or in the process of doing so) various business models for different points in the timeline in the months ahead. Streaming will most certainly factor in significantly at some point.

Also interesting:

https://***********/ballmatthew/status/1246222626164531200/photo/1

 

[Albright]

I doubt, that theatrical releases will be very successful the next year until a vaccine or cure is ready. Cinemas will maybe open with big restrictions: between every viewer probably 1-2 seats distance, which will leave a capacity of less then 50-30%
I won‘t feel very safe with so many people in a room...

 

[Spider-Fan]

I guess Sony will make everything possible, that the Spiderman movie won‘t get delayed. It guarantees more success at the box-office than a movie version of a video game

Spider-Man is definitely a higher priority for the studio.

 

[Chris B]

This is assuming a best case scenario in regards to the virus being contained, but my guess is that Black Widow winds up taking The Eternals' date in November, with that claiming Shang-Chi's spot in February.

Beyond that is when its gets more muddled. I would expect MCU Spider-Man 3 to keep its July '21 date as Marvel has no control over when that is released and Sony seems unlikely to move it back unless their hand is forced.

As far as the other 2021 MCU films go, I'm assuming that Shang-Chi takes the May slot despite being an untested property, but it does have the advantage of having done some filming already unlike Dr. Strange: MoM. In which case, I see Dr. Strange being pushed back to November assuming Sony doesn't budge with Spidey. In which case, Thor: L&T takes the February 2022 slot.

By that point, hopefully the pandemic is behind us. In which case, I think the schedule starts to get back on track with BP2 keeping its May 2022 date.

So it seems that I correct in my prediction as to how the schedule would be reshuffled was correct. Assuming that the pandemic doesn't force another one in the future.

 

[psylockolussus]

They should only release something straight to streaming if its potentially a boX office bomb like Artemis Fowl

Ha!

 

[Yowza]

I agree with a lot of this, and again, I discussed in the BW box office thread the ways that VOD could be used to attract/sign-up/retain customers within the streaming platforms. Or you could just go with the more standard VOD window before going to streaming. I'm sure execs at the studios have worked out/considered (or in the process of doing so) various business models for different points in the timeline in the months ahead. Streaming will most certainly factor in significantly at some point.

Also interesting:

https://***********/ballmatthew/status/1246222626164531200/photo/1

Was there supposed to be a 2nd image there?

I don't like the "Angry Video Game Nerd" videos all that much but came across "What will I Watch? Netflix Browsing" video and a bit of swearing so I can't link to it here but I think provides a good parody of what it's like browsing about through an SVOD site where searching can be cyclical sometimes...

I think studio backed SVOD as we see it with MCU is to promote the theater releases and to promote the SVOD service itself. If theater releases stop for a long while I wonder what will trend upwards though for certain types of new releases...? It's true the rental and buying of films that aren't new anymore isn't as lucrative (whether some sort of satellite order based rental, TVOD service, app store, ect.). Of course also, TV live audiences have gotten to the point of not even needing to use DVR anymore, pay-per-view moreso for live events, and the brick/mortar based perusing is a thing of the past.

The videogaming industry has taken live events into the home so far with niche success. I think a live gathering of sorts could create some buzz for new VOD releases that come out before Blu-Ray release for the price of a movie ticket if that industry ever arises. It'll be interesting to see what can be done for theatrical releases without a theater to remain lucrative for tentpole based films to gain a billion dollars. Even tying in VOD for new releases into SVOD seems cumbersome and SVOD alone will just not yield the buzz needed I don't think to maintain near the amount of frequent high budgeted films that come out now for theaters. It'll be interesting to see what happens if theaters go on the decline in the next few years as opposed to possibly decades. I don't think the entertainment industry will be able to change quick and there'll be a bottleneck more so on content perhaps.

 

[Albright]

I hope Disney and Marvel think about next time they wanna take a break between movies. After Endgame and FFH they said that the event was so big, that people need a break until the start of phase 4. Makes it 1,5 years now with no new content. That plan backfires now, because they could‘ve had another movie in November 2019 and/or February 2020.
Sure it‘s there problem, not mine, but they had no revenue stream (besides Bluray releases) for 18 months. This will have an impact on future plans

 

[Bayne]

I hope Disney and Marvel think about next time they wanna take a break between movies. After Endgame and FFH they said that the event was so big, that people need a break until the start of phase 4. Makes it 1,5 years now with no new content. That plan backfires now, because they could‘ve had another movie in November 2019 and/or February 2020.
Sure it‘s there problem, not mine, but they had no revenue stream (besides Bluray releases) for 18 months. This will have an impact on future plans

This is a once in a lifetime extreme global event. The idea that Disney should alter their normal course of business in the future just in case something like this were to happen again is obviously ridiculous.

Also, the claim that they have no revenue stream for 18 months is blatantly false. Firstly because Endgame may have premiered in April 2019, but it didn't leave theaters in April. It played well into the fall. And Far From Home premiered in July and played into the fall. And secondly because Marvel is far from the only revenue stream Disney relies on. In the second half of 2019 they also had Aladdin, Toy Story 4, The Lion King, Frozen 2 and Star Wars ix. And if this whole thing had happened a mere one month later, they'd've had Onward, The King's Man and Mulan in the first part of 2020.

If Marvel's income falls relatively speaking because of this crisis, Disney is still in a better position than pretty much any other studio to come out of all this just fine. And that means Marvel will be just fine, too, because Disney is in no way so insane as to blame any temporary financial losses on Marvel itself when they know for a fact Marvel is the most consistently lucrative crown jewel they have. Worst case scenario is Disney pulls money out of some smaller movies or side business to give Marvel studios a cash injection that keeps everything moving forward.

 

[Albright]

yep, but which other studio has to deal with closed parkss and cruising lines, also no sports on espn...this will heavily hit the company (ok, two more mcu movies wouldn‘t have changed much)
I assume they‘ll return to fewer releases a year in the future

 

[Bayne]

yep, but which other studio has to deal with closed parkss and cruising lines, also no sports on espn...this will heavily hit the company (ok, two more mcu movies wouldn‘t have changed much)
I assume they‘ll return to fewer releases a year in the future

And which other studio can rely on the massive merchandising empire Disney owns? (Something which hasn't even been fully shut down, since internet commerce is still available in many, many places).

And which other studio managed to launch their own streaming service (with huge brand loyalty and already available and well-liked original programming) just in time to reach millions of people trapped at home in quarantine?

This will hit every studio hard. It's an unprecedented event and especially hard on 'non-essential' companies like entertainment. But Disney is still in an enviable position relative to pretty much everyone else.

 

[Albright]

The subscriptions will reach its peak after the launches at the asian markets and even go into decline if there won‘t be new high produced content. Right now everyone is satisfied with the vault and 1 season of a high quality original series. That might change when yearly subscriptions end in November. With no Marvel show or the delayed Monsters Inc. Disney doesn‘t have much reasons to renew the yearly subscriptions- people probably switch to a monthly subscription until the 2nd season of the Mandalorian ended (if it won‘t be delayed as well)
People are used to get new entire seasons or mivies every month from Netflix and Amazon prime (ok they will face similar problems)

 

[Micromind]

Would a low budget movie like "JOKER" make as much money on VoD service as it did in theaters (1.05 billion) ?

 

[Dark Raven]

This is a once in a lifetime extreme global event. The idea that Disney should alter their normal course of business in the future just in case something like this were to happen again is obviously ridiculous.

Also, the claim that they have no revenue stream for 18 months is blatantly false. Firstly because Endgame may have premiered in April 2019, but it didn't leave theaters in April. It played well into the fall. And Far From Home premiered in July and played into the fall. And secondly because Marvel is far from the only revenue stream Disney relies on. In the second half of 2019 they also had Aladdin, Toy Story 4, The Lion King, Frozen 2 and Star Wars ix. And if this whole thing had happened a mere one month later, they'd've had Onward, The King's Man and Mulan in the first part of 2020.

If Marvel's income falls relatively speaking because of this crisis, Disney is still in a better position than pretty much any other studio to come out of all this just fine. And that means Marvel will be just fine, too, because Disney is in no way so insane as to blame any temporary financial losses on Marvel itself when they know for a fact Marvel is the most consistently lucrative crown jewel they have. Worst case scenario is Disney pulls money out of some smaller movies or side business to give Marvel studios a cash injection that keeps everything moving forward.

While I agree on the most part, I wouldn't necessarily say this is a once-in-a-lifetime event. The Black Death aka Bubonic Plague returned intermittently every few years throughout the 14th century, and also in the 15th and 17th centuries. Hopefully this won't happen with the Coronavirus, but who knows if they don't find a cure.

 

[Bayne]

While I agree on the most part, I wouldn't necessarily say this is a once-in-a-lifetime event. The Black Death aka Bubonic Plague returned intermittently every few years throughout the 14th century, and also in the 15th and 17th centuries. Hopefully this won't happen with the Coronavirus, but who knows if they don't find a cure.

Well, yes, if they don't find a cure or vaccine, this will go on for a long time. But they will probably find a vaccine relatively soon. Which does not mean by the summer by any means, so when I say 'once in a lifetime event' I'm talking about everything that happens before the vaccine is available, which very definitely could involve multiple rounds of quarantine (but that's not really that relevant to movie scheduling long term because we're still probably only talking about the next year/year and a half).

 

[Albright]

I doubt Spiderman 3 and any other movies could be filmed in the next months or even this year.
I think, that Spiderman has the highest priority to get a summer release and won‘t get pushed into the new shedule.
They, imho most likely, put Spiderman 3 into the July of 2022-Slot and move everything around (like when Homecoming was announced)
The only save date is the Black Panther release, since its besides Spidey Marvel cashcow.
Captain Marvel 2 won‘t never make the money Spiderman 3 will.
Also a fitting release date is important for the relationship for Marvel and Sony und future plans with the Spiderman-characters.

 

[The forest gate]

Got a feeling projects still being planned to be made in the USA might be moved outside the USA if immigration restrictions make it hard to bring in non Americans into the production.

 

[Albright]

Yes, but then it also will be impossible to get american actor and production staff outside the USA

 

[Spider-Fan]

I doubt Spiderman 3 and any other movies could be filmed in the next months or even this year.
I think, that Spiderman has the highest priority to get a summer release and won‘t get pushed into the new shedule.
They, imho most likely, put Spiderman 3 into the July of 2022-Slot and move everything around (like when Homecoming was announced)
The only save date is the Black Panther release, since its besides Spidey Marvel cashcow.
Captain Marvel 2 won‘t never make the money Spiderman 3 will.
Also a fitting release date is important for the relationship for Marvel and Sony und future plans with the Spiderman-characters.

Your argument confuses me cause Captain Marvel and Far From Home had very similar box office results.

But Spider-Man moving is inevitable. Venom: Let There Be Carnage has been delayed until June 25. Even if Spider-Man COULD get moving, that's too close for them to be. Question becomes will they delay until late 2021 like December or sometime in 2022?