Deadpool Deadpool Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Thread Manager]

This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]488739[/split]

 

[def28]

This one should be interesting. Deadpool is one of Marvels top sellers with comics and merch. His popularity is also huge with teens, gamers, cosplayers and social media.

Will that popularity reflect on a wide level to movie going audiences?

This is moving Fox out of their usual Marvel franchise route. So I think it will be fairly important when it comes to risks on other X-Men related IP's.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Looks like the weekend actuals will come in a tad lower than estimated, $132.7 million (versus the estimate of 135). Still crazy good, and Fox is sticking to its $150 million four-day estimate even with the lower Sunday.

I figured it's actuals would be lower but it's not a big deal of course.

 

[KINGTHANOS]

[post=32958791]Re: Deadpool Box Office Prediction Thread[/post]

When a Hollywood screenwriter and studio producer who never read a comic book thinks they can improve a beloved comic character better than hundreds of professional comic book writers and artist who have listened to decades of hardcore fan input and comic book history, it's extremely laughable.

Stop trying to put your comic novice, amatuer stamp on something that has been refined by experts for decades just show the public why the source material stands out and became popular.

Aren't you a bit extreme? There's a fine middle ground to that. You don't wanna be a slave to the source material.

You still gotta make the material your own, otherwise it can pretty easily become a soulless rip-off of the comics.

Even Rhett Reese and Paul Wernick talked about that. You get to know and respect the source material, but you still try to put your own stamp on it. Just like a new writer in the comics puts his stamp on a title and breathes some new life and perspective into it.

Well, when people desire source material accuracy, it has much more to do with the look and essence of the individual characters than it does the stories. The stories can be bent, if it means the movie will be improved as a result, just don't change the looks or personalities of the characters like Nolan and Singer do.

 

[InCali]

This one should be interesting. Deadpool is one of Marvels top sellers with comics and merch. His popularity is also huge with teens, gamers, cosplayers and social media.

Will that popularity reflect on a wide level to movie going audiences?

This is moving Fox out of their usual Marvel franchise route. So I think it will be fairly important when it comes to risks on other X-Men related IP's.

Does Fox have merchandising for Deadpool, etc.? There was a great buzz going around. My son was home from college on Sunday (he has a class on President's Day.....weird) and said we should go see it. We looked on line and all the premium showings before 10pm or so were (basically) sold out.

 

[Eddie]

Marvel has merchandise for the character himself, and the toys coming out are technically based on the comic. They're the ones benefiting from the toy sales.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

It's Marvel who benefits from the merch.

 

[InCali]

Marvel has merchandise for the character himself, and the toys coming out are technically based on the comic. They're the ones benefiting from the toy sales.

And the money just keeps on rolling in for Disney/Marvel........though Fox is going to make a big chunk on this movie.

I wonder what the merchandising for Deadpool is worth?

 

[InCali]

I figured it's actuals would be lower but it's not a big deal of course.

Superhero movie fatigue

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Superhero movie fatigue

lol, we hear that every year.

 

[WilliamK99]

Has anyone heard the latest trend, saying Deadpool made so much money BECAUSE of super hero fatigue.. LOL, makes me laugh that some people are looking for any reason to bash films based off comic books.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Has anyone heard the latest trend, saying Deadpool made so much money BECAUSE of super hero fatigue.. LOL, makes me laugh that some people are looking for any reason to bash films based off comic books.

Yeah I think that can be traced back to this story...

http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottme...-again-with-record-47-5m-friday/#128dec347e5c

...proving once more that the innertubes are desperately in need of a sarcasm font.

 

[Tony Stark]

I still have to see the film, although I hear it's fantastic. Wow! What an incredible response. I am not all that shocked because of the Marvel characters owned by Fox, Deadpool is probably the 2nd most popular behind Wolverine, and they finally did a movie that looks like it did the character justice.

I'd say this ups the ante for all CB movies this year. I'd bet on the high side for BvS and CW, and this is especially good news for SS, which will be the other adult oriented CB movie that also looks like a fun ride.

I'm not a huge Deadpool fan, but I know he has a loyal following, and I'm happy for the fanbase that finally got something they deserved, and a film fitting for the character, unlike XMO: Wolverine.

 

[Retroman]

Interestingly...RTL Boulevard (a big entertainment show here) recently did a piece on Deadpool and after the feature aired the reporter said that he was a little fatigued from the genre. But he would go and see Deadpool because he felt it was different from what we've become accustomed to seeing.

Why did something like Dredd or even Edge of Tomorrow fail to win big at the box office? Zero marketing. How are these type of lesser branded films suppose to make money if there's no effort put into promoting them? I only found out about Edge of Tomorrow 6 weeks before the film opened, and I consider myself a film nerd. So how is the average movie goer suppose to know these things exist?

You're right.

Even after Edge of Tomorrow's theatrical run the studio weren't sure how to promote it. For the DVD/Blu-Ray release it was retitled Live Die Repeat.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Has anyone heard the latest trend, saying Deadpool made so much money BECAUSE of super hero fatigue.. LOL, makes me laugh that some people are looking for any reason to bash films based off comic books.

That's a reach.

There has been no proof of fatigue. Believe me if there were I wouldn't deny it but there hasn't been. Last year you had people pointing to AOU making less in North America, Ant-Man not doing Guardians of the Galaxy numbers and Fantastic Four bombing. AOU made 1.4 billion so yeah it was a massive success, Ant-Man was a hit as well and was never going to hit GOTG numbers. Fantastic Four bombed because it's awful. There wasn't a break out but the films did well.

This year already has a comic book movie opening with 130+ million and that proves fatigue? Yeah that totally makes sense.

 

[BoredGuy]

This year will be a complete counterpoint to whatever 'lessons' last year taught

and then maybe next year it all collapses, who knows, lol

 

[BlackFox]

This year will be a complete counterpoint to whatever 'lessons' last year taught

and then maybe next year it all collapses, who knows, lol

Agreed I think this year could be full of surprises both positive and negative but the "rule" book will have to be re-written/torn up altogether.

Heck the next two CBM's could potentially cross the billion mark.

 

[jmc]

Has anyone heard the latest trend, saying Deadpool made so much money BECAUSE of super hero fatigue.. LOL, makes me laugh that some people are looking for any reason to bash films based off comic books.

I actually wouldn't dismiss that entirely. There's an argument to be made that audiences are craving something new and Deadpool was exactly it. Looking at all the other superhero films this year it's hard to say you going get much different from what's come before. Maybe fatigue isn't the right word, but it's possible it's all starting to become a little too familiar now. Avengers 2 didn't even finish top 3 in box office last year.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

I still have to see the film, although I hear it's fantastic. Wow! What an incredible response. I am not all that shocked because of the Marvel characters owned by Fox, Deadpool is probably the 2nd most popular behind Wolverine, and they finally did a movie that looks like it did the character justice.

I'd say this ups the ante for all CB movies this year. I'd bet on the high side for BvS and CW, and this is especially good news for SS, which will be the other adult oriented CB movie that also looks like a fun ride.

I'm not a huge Deadpool fan, but I know he has a loyal following, and I'm happy for the fanbase that finally got something they deserved, and a film fitting for the character, unlike XMO: Wolverine.

I was on the fence about who was more popular between DP and Wolverine, not the case anymore. Just imagine where DP is going now.

 

[Doctor Jones]

Here I thought BVS would change the discussion of comic book films. I think Deadpool beat it to the punch. It's very early, but Deadpool's success further helps comic book movies longevity in a way nobody expected. The R Rated and different comic book film where people do want different types of these movies. Damn. Nobody saw this coming.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I actually wouldn't dismiss that entirely. There's an argument to be made that audiences are craving something new and Deadpool was exactly it. Looking at all the other superhero films this year it's hard to say you going get much different from what's come before. Maybe fatigue isn't the right word, but it's possible it's all starting to become a little too familiar now. Avengers 2 didn't even finish top 3 in box office last year.

There still hasn't been any proof. "Feelings" don't count as proof of anything. Also any comic book film this year will be lucky to make 460 million in North America and 1.4 overall worldwide. AOU was never going to do as well as the first film and it probably did even a little worst because most just saw it as a decent film but a rehash that wasn't as good as the original. Jurassic World 2 and Star Wars 8 are going to less than their predecessors in North America as well, that's just what happens when a franchise or franchise revivals over performs out of the gate.

 

[The Endless]

We can't possibly tell yet. But imagine after this people look at the other superhero films a bit differently? It's possible.

But again, it's all about quality. If BvS and Civil War are great films nothing will change. If they are disappointing we may see a "they are taking this **** too seriously" backlash after what Deadpool has just done. Perhaps that'd be unfair, but people are fickle. If those two films don't meet expectations people will find any reasons to bash them

 

[jmc]

Of course there's no direct evidence and there never will be, but the idea that subconsciously people were drawn to Deadpool because it was the exact opposite of what they are use to is entirely plausible.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Anything is plausible but people have been saying comic book movie fatigue for the last 5 years. Why not just wait until it happens instead of crying wolf ever year?

 

[BlackFox]

Anything is plausible but people have been saying comic book movie fatigue for the last 5 years. Why not just wait until it happens instead of crying wolf ever year?

It does feel like some are actually anticipating the CBM world failing rather than enjoying what we have. Maybe they are worried or something but is odd especially on a site like this one.