Deadpool Deadpool Box Office Prediction Thread

[def28]

The majority does.

There's just barely any votes right now.

 

[MadVillainy]

yeah I think a lot of people are going way too high with their prediction.

Yeah the Youtube hits are a lot but I don't think the necessarily lentds to sales. At least not all the time.
Besides do you know all the people who watched the test footage or the ratings announcement wont see the movie in theaters? There are those people who will just wait to download it, there are the people who will have a hard time to getting into an R Rated movie, and then there are people who would just have a hard time getting to the theater and wont be able to see it.

Deadpool is a cult character. A very popular cult character, but still a cult character. No way he's an icon. Not even close. Wolverine that's an icon. Superman? Icon. Deadpool? No. Just no.

FOX already has the fanboy support they just need the GA support.

If this makes a lot of money and is a good movie then cool. But I really have to side eye some of these predictions haha. I think this will be successful especially considering that the budget wont be that high, but not to heights that some think.

 

[def28]

Icon is overselling a bit but he ain't too far from being that recognizable. He's def a mainstream Marvel character and been past cult status for while. Been way more popular then a majority of X-Men, Justice League and Avenger characters. Pretty sure every superhero fan knows that suit and logo. He's had practically every kind of exposure you can imagine except a solo film, which he is now getting tons of hype from.

Howard the Duck and Swamp Thing are more cult characters.

 

[MadVillainy]

Icon is overselling a bit but he ain't too far from being that recognizable. Every superhero fan knows that suit and logo. He's def a mainstream Marvel character and been past cult status for while. Been way more popular then a majority of X-Men, Justice League and Avenger characters. He's had practically every kind of exposure you can imagine except a solo film, which he is now getting tons of hype from.

The bolded proves a point. To SUPERHERO fans he may be an icon or very recognizable but not to the average person I don't think. There has been a major push for him but nah he's not this easily recognizable character that everyone knows like some people are making him out to be.

You gotta step outside our fanboy bubble and think what easily recognizable really is. Hulk is someone who's easily recognizable. I could go down the street show a single picture of the Hulk, whether it's the comic version, Ruffalo's, Bana's, Norton, Ferrigno's, etc. and he'll still be easily recognizable. Hulk was like that even before any of the movies. Iron Man even before the movies.

Deadpool is popular to us fanboys and some members of the GA but he's not the big comic book figure that everyone knows. ANd saying he's more popular than most of the X-Men, JL, and Avengers is silly. I mean the roster for the teams are like...maybe 20 important people and then a bunch of smaller characters that the average person would know.

There's no way that Deadpool is known more by people than the big 6-7 of the JL or the main 4 (maybe 6) Avengers, or even the main X-Men. At the best I would say that DP is at Thor level. A good amount of people recognize him, but he's not very very recognized.

 

[def28]

Pretty much everyone in this generation is a superhero fan though. That can be through, comics, games, social trending etc. They don't have to be a weekly comic book puller.

The guy is def not only popular with fan boys. Your way off there.

 

[MadVillainy]

Pretty much everyone in this generation is a superhero fan though. That can be through, comics, games, social trending etc. They don't have to be a weekly comic book puller.

The guy is def not only popular with fan boys. Your way off there.

Ok that's just one generation. More than one generation goes to SH movies. People of all ages go.

And no I still don't think that that means that Deadpool is recognizable. You go ask 12, idk..,.11 year old kids who Deadpool is I'd be surprised if half of them no who he is. Or at least know who he really is and not the XMOW version.

And the whole "everyone is a superhero fan" proves another point. Everyone is a superhero fan when they see the movies. That's primarily how everyone is getting into superheroes and that's primarily the extent they go to. Theyre just casual fans. They don't even hear or care about certain characters until the movies come out. It's kinda like bandwagon sports fans. When the team is popular and good they care. But after some bad seasons they don't care anymore. "Deadpool has been in one movie so far" I don't think that helped him be easily recognized.

Adnd before someone says something: Im not bashing Deadpool or trying to make it seem like he's this loser character no one cares about. He has a good size passionate following.
But he's not iconic or this very easily recognizable character.

 

[def28]

Oh Yeah, I'm not saying your bashing him in any way.

I just think there's an inbetween here from Icon and cult and your selling his status short. I mean we are talking about a top selling Marvel character who has been in countless games, cartoons, has tons of merch, trends quite often on the net and granted he wasn't in the suit appeared in a movie that made over 350m played by the same actor that caused quite the controversy. Enough so to get a solo made. The guy has more merch at hot topic then the Avengers.

Compared to characters like Strange, Ms Marvel, Zatanna, Iron Fist and Luke Cage this guy has had way more main stream exposure to audiences in the past 6 years.

 

[JEM]

Kingsman so far earned $370 million worldwide and thats just amazing. I did not expect that movie to earn that much especially the buzz for it when the 1st trailer came out was like zero and its YouTube trailer views compare to X-Men and Fantastic Four are really low. While the buzz for Deadpool is completely the opposite and we have yet to get a trailer. So maybe more than $400 million worldwide. We'll see.

Kingsman earned 370 millions , it is very good for Deadpool.

 

[TheComicbookKid]

Oh Yeah, I'm not saying your bashing him in any way.

I just think there's an inbetween here from Icon and cult and your selling his status short. I mean we are talking about a top selling Marvel character who has been in countless games, cartoons, has tons of merch, trends quite often on the net and granted he wasn't in the suit appeared in a movie that made over 350m played by the same actor that caused quite the controversy. Enough so to get a solo made. The guy has more merch at hot topic then the Avengers.

Compared to characters like Strange, Ms Marvel, Zatanna, Iron Fist and Luke Cage this guy has had way more main stream exposure to audiences in the past 6 years.

I think it should be seen in the same way as the YA boom. THere's the icons like Harry Potter/Superman and then there's those books that are recognizable to a generation but doesn't mean they'll gross anywhere near what you think they would.

How Fox(not Reynold's Twitter) markets this will be a major factor in how it does.

 

[The Endless]

Seems people are not learning from the past really though.

How iconic or popular a character is prior to a movie doesn't mean **** at the end of the day. I remember this kind of negativity in regards to Guardians of the Galaxy. Even Iron Man actually.

Look what happened.

Not saying Deadpool will be as big as those franchises. No where near. But how do you make icons? How do you turn B-Listers into A-Listers? Give them a marketing push and an awesome film. **** Guardians of the Galaxy were Z-Listers. A lot of comic book fans hadn't even heard of them or picked up their comics (shame on you!) until the movie was announced.

 

[def28]

I think it should be seen in the same way as the YA boom. THere's the icons like Harry Potter/Superman and then there's those books that are recognizable to a generation but doesn't mean they'll gross anywhere near what you think they would.

How Fox(not Reynold's Twitter) markets this will be a major factor in how it does.

Still think yall are selling him a bit too short and being more on the skeptic side. Don't really know how this character can even get more popular without the solo film.

But hey, time will tell. Regardless of current popularity the film itself is gonna have to play well. How many B and Z listers have made it into the frame in the past decade?

 

[The Endless]

People are selling Deadpool short because he's a new character, relatively speaking. He's an outsider character and is always going to be on the fringes. He's a character that is used to highlight how silly superhero tropes and cliches are, which is polarizing. And of course in the last few years he has been overexposed in too many comics that are written poorly.

There is an animosity towards the character from some comic book fans because of those reasons.

 

[def28]

Past few years have been great for Deadpool comics. I know people got pissed when he was over marketed during the time when Way's 08 run, Merc with a Mouth, Deadpool Corps and Deadpool team up were going but that's bout the only time I've seen that negativity.

While I agree in the long haul the modern popularity does not matter much when the film opens like the case with Iron Man or GOTG, the current buzz this is getting and the reason the film was green lit plays a huge role in the fact he's as a known character. A majority of films don't grab this sort of hype, let alone Scott Pilrgim. For people to completely dismiss all of that doesn't make sense. The only reason Deadpool got a creative team was because the backlash from Origins was so strong. Originally they just wanted to set up Gambit. Take away Deadpool's popularity and Fox would not have taken the hint. He would have just ended in Origins.

 

[Spider-Vader]

If Kingsman can do damn near $400 Mil in the same month, then I definitely think Deadpool can...unlessitsbad.

Deadpool is super popular with casual superhero fans even without a movie, I think this could possibly be the highest grossing R rated movie in a long time.

 

[psylockolussus]

Yes unless its bad, it won't earn $400 million.

But we'll see, box-office could be unpredictable at times. I'm not sure of its competition yet. Though Kingsman really had a big competition with Fifty Shades of Grey and it didn't go out unnoticed. While Deadpool clearly has more going for it... Marvel logo and X-Men ties. So this isn't gonna be the Daredevil or Ghost Rider of the 2010s.

 

[antonydelfini]

If the movie's great: 500 million. Which would be awesome for an R rated comic book movie.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I think Kingsman's performance is a good benchmark for Deadpool.

125 m DOM
275 m OS
400 m WW

 

[psylockolussus]

Is this gonna get a 3D release?

 

[PunyGod]

Has Fury Road changed anybody's prediction?

I'm still pessimistic about this. I don't think this character has a lot of mainstream appeal and it will be tough to market to new people. Plus there is the R rating.

I'm gonna say $250. And if it ends up being a hit I win either way.

 

[Sithborg]

Nope. Mad Max has the issue of being a really old, cult franchise. Also, I think Deadpool will be more Kingsman than Mad Max, which isn't exactly a comedy.

 

[PunyGod]

I was thinking in terms of Mad Max being successful despite its R rating, heavy competition, and being a tough sell to the general audience. Some traits shared with Deadpool.

 

[def28]

Kingsman is definitely the one to compare given the release, studio and tone.

Mad Max, Kingsman, American Sniper, 22 Jump Street and Fifty Shades have all done well within the past year. All different flicks. Being rated R really isn't as big of an issue as people think. The appeal just needs to be there.

Deadpool has grabbed about 85k followers on twitter without having an official trailer or being up more then a few months, in comparison the F4 movie has 15k. Deadpool is having no problem creating interest. The appeal of being a Marvel superhero with one of the coolest costumes and humor is one that should't be overlooked. How that will play when it opens will just rely on time. But if we are to go by the marketing (which is all we have) so far Deadpool is doing fantastic gaining nothing but positive attention. Much more so then other films that cost three times as much.

 

[Sithborg]

I was thinking in terms of Mad Max being successful despite its R rating, heavy competition, and being a tough sell to the general audience. Some traits shared with Deadpool.

I have a tough time calling Mad Max a success for now. So far, it is looking to have good legs, which is great. But, it is still a $200 million movie. Compared to the sub $100 million Kingsman and likely Deadpool will have.

Not saying that what Mad Max is doing is bad. It is doing great all things considered. Just not a sucess like Kingsman was.

 

[psylockolussus]

It is having good legs at domestic box office but it wont pass its budget in domestic bo alone... so thats not really great. Then worldwide, its not really performing that great. The film was good but Wb has this tendency to give their films such a high budget....Pacific Rim, Jupiter Ascending, Green Lantern, Godzilla...the budget was over $180 million.

 

[kevork89]

Kingsman is exactly how I picture Deadpool to be. Gory crazy fun action full of swearing and crazy violence it was awesome. And it did great BO wise. I see Deadpool doing the same. Also younger kids know a lot about Deadpool so don't count out them. My nephew is a huge Deadpool fan. So are all his friends and they're all 13-15. They also learnt about him through the Internet, comics and games and no connection to origins movie so I think this will be a hit.

Deadpool has a big following.