Deadpool Deadpool Box Office Prediction Thread

[Moridin]

I think it can do Kingsman-like numbers, ~$400m. Seems to be hitting all the right notes and building good anticipation in the lead up to release.

 

[4thWallBreaker]

I'm not sure its budget, but my guess is that it'll pay for itself + 50% profit. Even with its really innovative ad-campaigns, I think the R-rating'll hurt it. I remember watching the red band and being amazed, but went to theatres for Hateful Eight and they played green bad to a lackluster response compared to the other trailers. It's such a catch-22 for the film. Can't show what it's packing. It should've been a red band anyways, what with us about to see Hateful Eight. Hell.

But yea, I remember silence and a guy behind me saying, "Ok," as if it looked lame. :/ Worry a bit. Just one experience. But if you look at the YouTube views for the trailers, they're so much lower than other comic book films. I say this because the other 6 or 7 trailers got big responses from the crowd. /shrug

Speaking of Hateful Eight, I see Tatum doing a Cajun accent justice. Seriously. But will it be good? Probably the weakest of the comic book films, but still could be good.

Oh, and I put 200 mill. That's my guesstimate. I feel I'm rounding down, though. What with global box-office still to count.

 

[MadVillainy]

Saw the Deadpool trailer in front of a movie in theaters. The audience was pretty diverse age wise people. But no teens or anything.

Most of them didn't react to any of the jokes. The biggest laugh for was from the "sex on prom night" joke from the green band.

Idk. I hope this does well if it's good. But Im not so convinced of it's success like some on here are. Kingsmen when you break it down is not that out there and I've heard a lot of people try to compare Kingsmen and Deadpool (R rated, action comedies, released in Feb.) but I dont think that's the case.
I'm still not convinced or seen evidence that the non nerdy, fanboy crowd cares about this.

I still am guessing between 200-300 mill WW IF the movie is actually good. Of course I could be wrong. Hell I was wrong about Avatar.

 

[BlackFox]

Kick-Ass made less than $100 WW but is considered a hit due to its low budget.

I dont know I really have no idea on these things really, it could be anything really and as usual will depend on several factors, reviews, WOM etc etc.

Kingsman played on the Bond angle very well and also had the KA success to build on, not sure Deadpool has that to draw on and the link to X-Men is only known probably by the hardcore fans.

I hope it does well of course, but even if this turns out to be just a one time thing I hope its a "good" one off.

 

[Tymminator]

I hope it does well. I'll say 500M.

 

[psylockolussus]

Even if it only earned $300 million, Fox would easily get their money back.

 

[-JKR-]

Yeah, but it would still be great if it did more than that. I'm hoping for Kingsman numbers. Let's hope the audience will respond to Deadpool.

 

[def28]

If this is as well received as the marketing then Reynolds and Miller are gonna have alot of say on expanding this side of the Xverse in regards to Cable, X-Force and Deadpool sequels.

So yeah, while 300-400m is a huge success and more on the realistic side, I'm really hoping this plays closer to 600m just to boost Fox's confidence with these guys even more.

 

[Sithborg]

600 is pretty crazy. I think 500 is a good high expectation.

 

[def28]

It's just hoping, not trying to be realistic there. Which is why I'm still sticking with a moderate 300-400m.

That said...Nobody at all expected GOTG to land near 800m and beat out X-Men and Spidey. And nobody thought Iron Man 1 would score to a near 600m. Depends alot on the initial reaction, but alot of heads on here undershoot Deapool's popularity in general and have so for quite sometime. So it wouldn't shock me if an extremely well marketed film of one of Marvel's most popular characters over performed most expectations if solid wom hits.

 

[-JKR-]

It's just hoping, not trying to be realistic there. Which is why I'm still sticking with a moderate 300-400m.

That said...Nobody at all expected GOTG to land near 800m and beat out X-Men and Spidey. And nobody thought Iron Man 1 would score to a near 600m. Depends alot on the initial reaction, but alot of heads on here undermined Deapool's popularity in general for quite sometime, so it wouldn't shock me if an extremely well marketed film of one of Marvel's most popular characters over performed most expectations if solid wom hits.

I hope so, man. That'd be great!

 

[Moridin]

It's just hoping, not trying to be realistic there. Which is why I'm still sticking with a moderate 300-400m.

That said...Nobody at all expected GOTG to land near 800m and beat out X-Men and Spidey. And nobody thought Iron Man 1 would score to a near 600m. Depends alot on the initial reaction, but alot of heads on here undershoot Deapool's popularity in general and have so for quite sometime. So it wouldn't shock me if an extremely well marketed film of one of Marvel's most popular characters over performed most expectations if solid wom hits.

But none of those films were R-rated, Deadpool is.

 

[marvelrobbins]

I think 300 Million WW is the realistic sceniro if deadpool clicks with people.

 

[def28]

But none of those films were R-rated, Deadpool is.

We have not seen how a mainstream Marvel character's R rating can hurt the box office yet. This isn't like Blade or Punisher in terms of pre character awareness or marketability. And there's gonna be alot of people who still take their kids to this. I'd argue it's not gonna lose more then around 20% of an audience from the rating, but that the R rating is actually increasing the interest of audiences in the 17 and above demo.

Action films like 300 and Kingsman made over 400m. A comedy like Ted made over 500m. It's not impossible for R rated action or comedy films to score an over 400m run.

Again, not saying 600m is my prediction. But if the film is well received with audiences and goes above the many predictions of around 300m or even above 400m I will not be surprised. This is already a very popular IP.

 

[samsnee]

I just don't know how toxic the Ryan Reynolds name is now. I mean he isn't a box office draw as much as studios want him to be. His last big hit was The Proposal and that also had Sandra Bullock.

I think the marketing has been great but it's geared so heavily toward fans who are already know the character and appreciate the randomness of it. I think $300 is the ceiling on this thing.

 

[def28]

Ryan Reynolds has never been the problem, his performances are rarely criticized. It's the film's he's in.

Star power is not what draws mainstream audiences to Superhero films the most. These actors usually gain their most popular recognition after said films have been released. Casting the character well is what will bank the character and the actor when all is said and done.

Nobody knew Hugh Jackman with X-Men 1, RDJ was not scoring as a big box office lead until Iron Man , Hemsworth and Hiddleston were unknown, GOTG was Pratts first starring role etc.

 

[samsnee]

Yes but I can argue the opposite as well. An audience member might see someone they don't recognize and give the movie a shot. Whereas Reynolds has been around and is known, and they think "he only picks bad projects so this isn't worth my time".

 

[def28]

How often is there a well marketed Superhero film that audiences refused to see because the lead though? There's little to no criticism here regarding performance so I really don't see who would be complaining or why. He's doing an A+ job portraying the character and everyones responding to that.

Buried, Just Friends, Mississippi Grind, The Voices, Safehouse, The Proposal, Definitely Maybe, Adventureland and Smoking Aces were liked by the audiences who saw them. He has enough credibility as an actor tbh, and even with his ****** films like Green Lantern and RIPD he wasn't the one being criticized.

It's not really fair to say audiences are not aware when a film looks good or not, or that they are just judging it by the an actors bad films regardless of their talent or the fact they have had decent films as well. Reynolds or a majority actors name do not hold that much pull unless they are in the right role and film.

 

[def28]

Guess Deadpool didn't pass China's censors...

https://***********/ChinaBoxOffice/status/688594897973153792

 

[psylockolussus]

Ouch thats gonna hurt its worldwide gross.

Kingsman was released in China and did well.

 

[Eddie]

They may do a separate cut for China if a few simple cuts could secure a release. That's not unheard of (even The Avengers digitally altered a death scene for at least one market, it's actually fairly common).

 

[Superhero 101]

I predict 200 million ww after hearing about China

 

[-JKR-]

I predict 200 million ww after hearing about China

Mad Max: Fury Road did more than 350m WW, without China.

 

[Eddie]

Somehow I doubt Deadpool will copy Mad Max and be up for the Academy Award this time next year...

Deadpool will probably be fine, though.

 

[Sithborg]

Of course it will be fine. I do think my super high end, ultra optimistic dream of $500 is gone, but the bar for success is still so low, that it doesn't really matter.