Deadpool Deadpool Box Office Prediction Thread

[SuperT]

Ryan Reynolds has never been the problem, his performances are rarely criticized. It's the film's he's in.

Bingo. Reynolds has always been good, especially in comedy, he just picks bad material.

 

[Superhero 101]

Is there a early tracking for DP

 

[Eddie]

I'm sure there is, but last year early tracking was notoriously horrible. Inside Out was supposed to be a lesser Pixar movie and Fantastic Four was supposed to be a top five summer film.

 

[Moridin]

Mad Max: Fury Road did more than 350m WW, without China.

And Kingsman made about $340m WW without China.

 

[SuperT]

If Kingsman can do $340M WW, I don't see how Deadpool couldn't at least get relatively close. It has a lot more going for it marketing wise, than Kingsman did and it helps that the film looks good.

Kingsman did have Samuel L. Jackson and Colin Firth though. Not saying they were the big draw, but they certainly added more clout to the movie.

 

[Sithborg]

But Colin Firth in an action movie? How much of a draw is that. And what movie isn't Sam in.

 

[SuperT]

But Colin Firth in an action movie? How much of a draw is that.

I think Colin Firth being in an action movie was one of the draws for a lot of people that saw it - certainly was for me. He's never been in any movie like that and I'm sure people were intrigued by that fact alone. It also helped that he completely crushed that role.

And what movie isn't Sam in.

True, but people love SLJ so I don't really think that hurts at all.

 

[psylockolussus]

But Colin Firth in an action movie? How much of a draw is that.

It wasn't, in my opinion. He isn't getting another action movie that isn't Kingsman anytime soon. People went to see it for the action.

 

[MXG]

I think it'll be between $300Mil and $400Mil World Wide without China.

 

[metaphysician]

If it does more than 300M world wide, I'm sure Fox will be pleased, given the small budget. Where things get more interesting is if it does notably more than 300M. If it made 460M, for instance, that would make it the second highest grossing X-Men movie ever, and probably the most profitable.

 

[Eddie]

It would easily be the most profitable at that number. DoFP actually wasn't as profitable as many think due to it's large budget and where it made its money (China doesn't return as many of those box office dollars to Hollywood). With a much lower budget and the guarantee that we're not dealing with Chinese funny money Deadpool would be wildly successful at that number.

 

[Sithborg]

Is there a early tracking for DP

The one number I could find was $75 million. Which seems a bit optimistic.

 

[def28]

They upped it to 76 haha.

I could be wrong but with pro box office I think alot of it is just them basing it off their social media tracking. Which Deadpool has obviously excelled in and destroyed other films with tweets and Facebook likes.

 

[Eddie]

Most early tracking is based on social media tracking.

To this day I remain convinced the early tracking for Fantastic Four pegged it as a top five summer blockbuster because the tracking company didn't realize almost all "Fantastic Four" mentions on Twitter were talking about One Direction.

 

[def28]

Definitely. With that said, very few films and first IP's have rarely seen the level of social media success like this. Which is why that number is high on that site. This ain't like Fan4stic in terms of interest at all.

 

[Zarex]

A $75 opening weekend seems crazy high for an R rated February release featuring a relatively obscure character and opening against decent competition in Zoolander 2. My initial thought was that it would open in the $40-$50 M range. But who knows? Miller, Reynolds and the marketing team at FOX have done everything right, so maybe this will be a smash.

 

[Eddie]

Yeah, a very small amount of Deadpool mentions would have no relation to this character. There aren't millions of Dirty Harry fans constantly tweeting about The Dead Pool.

 

[def28]

A $75 opening weekend seems crazy high for an R rated February release featuring a relatively obscure character and opening against decent competition in Zoolander 2. My initial thought was that it would open in the $40-$50 M range. But who knows? Miller, Reynolds and the marketing team at FOX have done everything right, so maybe this will be a smash.

There's nothing really obscure about this guy especially now that he's been heavily marketed through just about every form of media. Most Marvel film characters didn't have his following prior to a film. A mainstream film was all Deadpool was missing.

If this film flops it's gonna be because the film itself sucked.

 

[Sithborg]

At this point, I would not say Deadpool is obscure. He is one of Marvel's top characters. He already is a merchandise goldmine.

 

[Zarex]

At this point, I would not say Deadpool is obscure. He is one of Marvel's top characters. He already is a merchandise goldmine.

Pool has got an extremely fervent following, but I would still put it closer to the cult level at this point. If he gets a $75 opening week, of course, that no longer applies.

 

[def28]

At this point, I would not say Deadpool is obscure. He is one of Marvel's top characters. He already is a merchandise goldmine.

Exactly. With the exception of Harley Quinn no other character has reached that status without a film for this gen.

 

[Wildcard]

I don't think a $75 million opening for an R-Rated feature in February is optimistic, I think it's pretty accurate. A lot of people are looking forward to this because it'll be a breathe of fresh air for the genre in the sense that it's most certainly not the conventional superhero we're getting. Much like Ant-Man last year.

And if TFA just showed us anything in December, it's that it doesn't matter what period a film is released in. What matters is solid marketing and if the film itself is good or not.

 

[ernesth100]

Damn. Nothin from China? They really are what they eats.

 

[Sithborg]

I don't think a $75 million opening for an R-Rated feature in February is optimistic, I think it's pretty accurate. A lot of people are looking forward to this because it'll be a breathe of fresh air for the genre in the sense that it's most certainly not the conventional superhero we're getting. Much like Ant-Man last year.

And if TFA just showed us anything in December, it's that it doesn't matter what period a film is released in. What matters is solid marketing and if the film itself is good or not.

You start getting into trouble when you start expecting outliers, though. We will have to see, though. Crazy can happen, sure. But, I am not expecting it too.

 

[Wildcard]

I totally understand your reservations. It can truly go either way. As I've said before, the box office is unpredictable.

Imo, though, the only way this falls short of that number is if the reaction from critics is like it was with Fantastic Four last year. As soon as the reviews came in, that movie was dead on arrival. If this movie can avoid that fate & turns out to be good or great, it could hit those numbers.

But if it is great, expect word of mouth to spread like wildfire and for this to break out. If not, it'll be a long, long time before another R-Rated superhero movie surfaces.