Deadpool Deadpool Box Office Prediction Thread

[KINGTHANOS]

I think this could easily generate $500m, or more, in revenue. Just look at the incredible social media buzz and attention all of its marketing and trailers have generated. If we base that on the buzz from films like Avengers, Batman vs Superman, etc then it's obvious it will make a lot more than people are anticipating, R-Rating or not.

 

[Superhero 101]

I am going with 300-400million i don't see it cracking 500m without china

 

[Wildcard]

The Force Awakens already proved that a movie does not need China to be a major success so I'm going to go ahead and say it'll crack that $500 million or go even higher if it's really exceptional.

 

[samsnee]

You seriously are not comparing the box office power of TFA to Deadpool are you?

 

[Sithborg]

I doubt it. But Star Wars has shown that the Western audience can still do strong numbers.

 

[Wildcard]

You seriously are not comparing the box office power of TFA to Deadpool are you?

*facepalm* That's not the point. No, I'm not comparing the two. My sentiment is that a movie's success is not dictated by the Chinese market, a fact that TFA helped to reinforce since it didn't have the impact Furious 7 or Jurassic World had there but has still grossed more than both films despite that.

Ergo, just because it's not being released in China doesn't mean it won't hit those numbers. To say otherwise is kind of ludicrous. I get that China is an ever-expanding market but still.

 

[combocaz]

500mil+ would be fantastic for the movie but realistically i think it will make between 300-400mil. Im banking on this being the best comedy action film this year.

 

[samsnee]

*facepalm* That's not the point. No, I'm not comparing the two. My sentiment is that a movie's success is not dictated by the Chinese market, a fact that TFA helped to reinforce since it didn't have the impact Furious 7 or Jurassic World had there but has still grossed more than both films despite that.

Ergo, just because it's not being released in China doesn't mean it won't hit those numbers. To say otherwise is kind of ludicrous. I get that China is an ever-expanding market but still.

I get what you're saying but TFA would have been a success with or without China. I'm not saying Deadpool will flop because it doesn't have China but if the domestic box office is soft, China certainly would have helped. Whereas with TFA, China would have just been icing on the cake.

 

[-JKR-]

EDIT: Wrong thread.

 

[def28]

Steven Weintraub ‏@colliderfrosty 1h1 hour ago
hearing @deadpoolmovie is the #1 seller on Fandango right now and it doesn't open till next week

t:

 

[Weather Witch]

In that same conversation: @HasdiBravo @colliderfrosty @deadpoolmovie it's #1 on http://movietickets.com now too
While I don't think we can check the Fandango claim, the movietickets.com thing is absolutely true. It also says 13% of all tickets sold in the last 24 hrs.

That's a pretty good sign though.

 

[Moridin]

500mil+ would be fantastic for the movie but realistically i think it will make between 300-400mil. Im banking on this being the best comedy action film this year.

I'm banking on it being the 2nd best r-rated action comedy of the year.

 

[KDM1986]

I'm thinking between 400-500 million worldwide. Anything above 300 million probably gets this a sequel. Anything below 300 million worldwide would probably be up in the air.

 

[Tim_Riggins]

I think the WOM is going to be off the charts on this one.

 

[def28]

I'm thinking between 400-500 million worldwide. Anything above 300 million probably gets this a sequel. Anything below 300 million worldwide would probably be up in the air.

It cost Fox 60m, so if it at the least triples it's budget I don't see what's there to lose with a sequel. We just won't see a budget increase.

 

[metaphysician]

If the BO.com predictions are accurate, Deadpool will triple its budget on domestic alone.

 

[def28]

Yep

 

[The Endless]

Anything above 200 million would be considered a success by Fox i imagine. I'm guessing 280-340 million world wide.

 

[JOE]

Anyone know when the reviews will start rolling in? What date is the embargo lifted?

 

[-JKR-]

Anyone know when the reviews will start rolling in? What date is the embargo lifted?

They'll release the Kraken on Sunday

 

[Moridin]

If the BO.com predictions are accurate, Deadpool will triple its budget on domestic alone.

Yeah, I've seen people say the bar for a movies success is 2.5 times it's production budget. With the budget here being ~$65m, I'd agree it'll probably get cose to that just in domestic (I'd say ~$150m).

I still think $400m WW is in play without China.

 

[Wildcard]

I'm telling you guys...this is gonna be like a repeat event with Ant-Man in that I can see it stretching to $500 million even without the aforementioned country in the fray. My best estimates are that this could even hit $80-$85 million opening weekend. But again, that really depends on whether the execution is virtually pitch perfect.

All things considered, though, I'd say there's no way this ends up like FF and the reviews tarnish it. I suspect a RT rating somewhere in the 70 percentile range. More than good enough to put people at ease.

 

[JtheDreamer]

I'm telling you guys...this is gonna be like a repeat event with Ant-Man in that I can see it stretching to $500 million even without the aforementioned country in the fray. My best estimates are that this could even hit $80-$85 million opening weekend. But again, that really depends on whether the execution is virtually pitch perfect.

All things considered, though, I'd say there's no way this ends up like FF and the reviews tarnish it. I suspect a RT rating somewhere in the 70 percentile range. More than good enough to put people at ease.

$500 million without China? I personally don't see that happening.

 

[Wildcard]

Well, only time will tell but I'm confident it's a lock. If I'm wrong, however, I'll gladly admit that when the time comes.

But $200 million or more domestically plus a hefty overseas total oughta do it. China isn't the end all be all for determining a movie's WW success. Again, it is a great market to be able to tap into, but it's just one of many.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I'm telling you guys...this is gonna be like a repeat event with Ant-Man in that I can see it stretching to $500 million even without the aforementioned country in the fray. My best estimates are that this could even hit $80-$85 million opening weekend. But again, that really depends on whether the execution is virtually pitch perfect.

All things considered, though, I'd say there's no way this ends up like FF and the reviews tarnish it. I suspect a RT rating somewhere in the 70 percentile range. More than good enough to put people at ease.

Lol, it'll beat FF domestic by the first Monday.

Ant-Mad had impressive legs. I'd be delighted if DP follows suit.