Deadpool Deadpool Box Office Prediction Thread

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Forget Gambit being their next Wolverine, Deadpool has already taken that role.

 

[jmc]

I am not saying it has to go up to 150m, but it has to go up substantially.

There's the possibility the creative team would want to keep the budget as low as possible. When you've got less to work with you generally have to try and work harder to get good results. Reynolds' passion for the character is such I can easily see him taking a pay cut for it.

 

[Blade X]

International and China gross are only extremely important nowadays because 90% of hollywood blockbuster movies have ridiculous $150M+ budgets. Those movies depend way more heavily on those worldwide grosses than they used to in the past. American Sniper's $350M domestic gross is close to 6 times it's budget without international, or China. Deadpool is going to open bigger than AS domestically, and is good enough that I can see it having a lot of repeat viewings, anything it grosses over $200M domestic is a monster success because whatever it makes overseas, is just extra.

I think you're thinking about this all wrong. The R-rating is fine as long as the movie's budget is kept in check. American Sniper and Deadpool similar budgets at $58M, far lower than the budgets for the last 5 X-flims, or any MCU movie. For a movie with sub-$100M budget, a good performance domestically alone should be enough to make the movie profitable, while the international market is just icing on the cake. It's not like these were the first successful R-rated superhero movies, Blade 1 and 2 also performed well.

Quoted for the truth. And the budgets for the first 2 BLADE movies were not that huge (the budget for the 2nd movie was $54M).

 

[DarthSkywalker]

There's the possibility the creative team would want to keep the budget as low as possible. When you've got less to work with you generally have to try and work harder to get good results. Reynolds' passion for the character is such I can easily see him taking a pay cut for it.

Everyone is going to take a pay cut, while the movies make a lot of money? That makes very little sense.

 

[def28]

It is nice to see they have a little power now.

Yeah, I just don't see how Fox could be that stupid when they can just sit back and watch the money come in.

Especially after they made him wait this long and screwed him over already in XMOW, which he basically called "blackmail". They would be fools.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Face it guys, Deadpool 2 is going to have a substantially larger budget. That's just the way it works with break out hits.

 

[WilliamK99]

Everyone is going to take a pay cut, while the movies make a lot of money? That makes very little sense.

He can take a pay cut but then get paid on the backend... That is where the real money is... If he gets a percentage of the film profits... I think that is how his current contract is set up...

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Face it guys, Deadpool 2 is going to have a substantially larger budget. That's just the way it works with break out hits.

What they want to do is let the execs have all the money. Forget their hard work.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

What they want to do is let the execs have all the money. Forget their hard work.

 

[Blade X]

Still hoping this doesn't go to Fox's head and they give the movie 150 million budget for sequel... Hoping other studios take note and realize not all movies need to cost 150 million+

Quoted for the truth. The Blade and Hellboy movies are proof that you don't need a huge budget to make a great looking superhero movie with cool and good looking special effects and action scenes.

 

[jmc]

Everyone is going to take a pay cut, while the movies make a lot of money? That makes very little sense.

You can added percentages from profits into the contracts. What I'm saying is the low budget for this film worked in its favour and if they want to try replicate their success they're probably better to follow that formula.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

He can take a pay cut but then get paid on the backend... That is where the real money is... If he gets a percentage of the film profits... I think that is how his current contract is set up...

Yes, but what changes, just like with RDJ, is that they also get a higher upfront fee. This applies to everyone. Why do people believe budgets go up? This was everyone's risk, and they pulled it off. Now they get paid. That is the whole point.

This is exactly why no one signed on super early for VIII for Star Wars. Daisy Ridley is going to be able to buy a small country with her VIII salary.

 

[chamber-music]

Exactly. It's going to open bigger than a lot of characters that are more popular. Which is super duper amazing.

This is why I think all these which comic character is a-list discussions doesn't mean much when it comes to movies. We have seen lesser known characters like deadpool, ant-man, blade and guardians of the galaxy be more successful than some of the bigger name characters like green lantern and the fantastic four.

 

[Zarex]

Reynolds pay cut days are over. He's earned Jackman (maybe even Downey?) money for the next one.

 

[The Endless]

Reynolds and co probably did this for peanuts (relatively speaking). They deserve a pay rise although i'm sure theyd do the sequel again no matter what.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Quoted for the truth. The Blade and Hellboy movies are proof that you don't need a huge budget to make a great looking superhero movie with cool and good looking special effects and action scenes.

I love the first two Blades and Hellboy. The reason why they had low budget is their box offices. The reason why Hellboy 3 hasn't been made is the box office.

You can added percentages from profits into the contracts. What I'm saying is the low budget for this film worked in its favour and if they want to try replicate their success they're probably better to follow that formula.

You think they can't replicate the feel of this film without getting paid more? Why?

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Deadpool wasn't good because it was low budget.

 

[los pollos]

I am not saying it has to go up to 150m, but it has to go up substantially.

I agree for sure it that it has to go up, I just think raising it to $100M mark for the second one (a 72% jump ) is the max they should go.

Deadpool wasn't good because it was low budget.

No it wasn't a good movie just because of the low budget, it's the fact that because the studio weren't gambling a monster sum of money on this movie, they can relax a little and allow their creatives to do what they want to do without the extreme pressures of making sure the movie appeals to the widest audience possible ie:China and international to make it's money back. I don't want the next Deadpool movie to turn into one of those other blockbusters , because the more important the international markets are to the movies success, the more meddling there will be.

 

[Eddie]

Yeah, let's not be going off on the MCU for not giving creators any freedom. Guardians of the Galaxy was very much a James Gunn movie and by all accounts the sequel is that and then some. Iron Man 3 was also very much Iron Man as brought to you by Shane Black.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Deadpool wasn't good because it was low budget.

Yep. Also, you can already see the hook for the sequel. "Now we have money."

 

[Smilodon]

I would argue that it did succeed because it was a very short and lean film. It wasn't bloated with unnecessary characters or crazy subplots, it was very simplistic. The lower budget gave them the freedom to do what they wanted. Of course, you can have low budget films that aren't good, but I don't think this film would've succeeded had Fox not given them free reign that came about as a result of a lower budget.

 

[The Endless]

Definitely one of the tightest film i've seen in a while. It seemed perfectly paced. How many times in the last few years has these big blockbusters kinda overstayed their welcomes and dragged for the final half hour?

 

[jmc]

Deadpool wasn't good because it was low budget.

I would argue it contributed. With fewer resources they had to make the most of what they had, meaning few chances to get things right. When you're under that kind of pressure you're forced to be precise. What separates the good creative teams from the bad teams are the ones who can make every dollar count, and that's what this team did.

 

[def28]

This is why I think all these which comic character is a-list discussions doesn't mean much when it comes to movies. We have seen lesser known characters like deadpool, ant-man, blade and guardians of the galaxy be more successful than some of the bigger name characters like green lantern and the fantastic four.

True, cause I think it's about the quality overall.

I'll say this though, Deadpool is the first Marvel character since I'd say Spider-Man that has had a huge fan base following prior to the film. He's sold more merch, titles, is a top cosplayer at cons and trended on social media far more then any other character with the exception of Harley Quinn in recent years. He trends with the younger gen who don't even read the books, just cause he's funny and looks cool.

I think the majority have far undervalued his popularity without having a mainstream film for the past 4 years. Ant-Man, GOTG, Cap,Thor and even Iron Man did not have that privilege.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

Face it guys, Deadpool 2 is going to have a substantially larger budget. That's just the way it works with break out hits.