🇺🇸 Discussion: General Election 2024, 🥥 VS 🍊

US News
MagnarTheGreat said:

You heard it here folks. Wind kills birds. Trump stop wind! Trump love birds!

www.nbcnews.com

Wind power surpassed coal in March and April

Offshore wind, the industry’s most promising area for growth, faced setbacks last year.
www.nbcnews.com www.nbcnews.com
Click to expand...
BTW, over the last few days, I've fed my dogs, what is advertised as, wind free chicken, turkey, and cow. I hope I wasn't being lied to and my dogs will be okay.
 
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Detective Conan said:
GTMF5DQWIAIB32L
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GWB: Kill
 
blueharvest said:
www.theguardian.com

‘I was not voting before, now I am’: gen Z voters on what they think of Kamala Harris

Young US voters weigh in on why they like or dislike the VP as a candidate and if they think she could beat Trump
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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“She stands more for progress and equality than an old white dude and if she wins it will be historic.”
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“My concern is we are facing a self-fulfilling prophecy; that people think it’s an impossible task to elect a Black woman to the highest office and as a result it becomes one. I think it’s quite the opposite actually. I feel Kamala is just what we need to energize young voters and get them to the polls.”
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“…I am infinitely more optimistic now that we have a likely nominee who is physically and mentally capable of running an energetic campaign.”
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“It will be refreshing for someone new to take the lead. [Harris] has got experience, she is young and passionate. Let’s see if she can make positive changes. This country needs a levelheaded individual, not a pushover or tyrant. I think she can do great things.“
“Harris will be able to hammer Republicans on abortion/reproductive health, contrast her own ‘law & order’ background with Trump’s felon status, and offer a younger option to voters that were concerned about Biden’s (and Trump’s!) age.”
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“[Kamala Harris] is a much better candidate for the country, and appeals way more to gen Z voters than Biden did. I was not voting before, and now I am.”
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IMG_1538.gif
 
Lily Adler said:
THANK YOU! I swear the old people of the DNC have this strange mindset that minorities rarely work if they're at the top of the ticket. Obama was a fluke in their eyes.
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When you are obsessed with mediocre white men as a voting bloc, you have to take their inherent racism into account. They take minority votes for granted.
 
What’s this, someone else setting aside their own biases, pride and ego for the good of the people and the country?
 


Unfortunately, the majority of white female voters in the United States have been like that: 🇺🇲 - Discussion: The DEMOCRATIC P - Part 3

They regurgitate lies. "Harris was in charge of the border." FALSE
"Harris has never done anything as VP." FALSE
"I'm worried she's going for young and minority voters" BIGOT
"There's no way she can convince us to vote for her. RFK before her." FALSE CONSPIRACY THEORIST
 
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news.yahoo.com

New Yahoo News/YouGov poll: Just 28% of Americans say assassination attempt 'changed Trump for the better'

The results suggest that one of the most eventful periods in recent U.S. history has had little effect on Trump’s political standing.
news.yahoo.com news.yahoo.com
In the past, presidential candidates have tended to enjoy a post-convention “bounce.” But Trump remains stuck at 46% in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup with the current frontrunner for the Democratic nomination, Vice President Kamala Harris, who also polls at 46%.
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Even the disapproval of Vance doesn't affect Trump's numbers.

Harris has got to put distance between her and Trump/Vance and picking a positive VP can help. But it's the big worry that if she doesn't lead the popular vote by a few points in the end, Trump returns to the presidency. Being tied or nearly isn't good enough due to the geographic distribution of the electoral votes and too much support bottled up in California and not the rest of the country, as well as RFK Jr. being a factor in whatever states he makes the ballot on.

D popular vote lead | Electoral Vote Result (before any faithless electors)
D-2.5 = 252 EVs (loss) (Kerry 2004)
D+0.5 = 267 EVs (loss) (Gore 2000)
D+2.0 = 232 EVs (loss) (H. Clinton 2016)
--------------270 EVs to win-------------
D+3.9 = 332 EVs (win) (Obama 2012)
D+4.5 = 306 EVs (win) (Biden 2020)
D+5.6 = 370 EVs (win) (W. Clinton 1992)
D+7.3 = 365 EVs (win) (Obama 2008)
D+8.5 = 379 EVs (win) (W. Clinton 1996)


ABC's 538 - Would Kamala Harris be a stronger candidate than Biden? (July 4, 2024)
FiveThirtyEight said:
Harris also does slightly better than Biden in our forecast of the national popular vote. The model forecasts that Trump would outpace Harris nationally by 1.5 points, while he would outrun Biden by 2.1 points. However, this could be an artifact of our model not having any Harris-versus-Trump polls that include independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who tends to take slightly more votes away from Democrats than Republicans when included in a poll.

However, Harris’s popular-vote edge is almost entirely negated by the bigger Electoral College bias against her. In our polls-only forecast pairing Biden against Trump, the Democratic candidate needs to win the popular vote by just 1.1 points to win the presidency. That’s thanks to Biden doing better in Pennsylvania, the likeliest tipping-point state in our model. Harris, by contrast, would need to win the popular vote by 3.5-4 points to win Pennsylvania and, with it, the Electoral College.
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I was hoping for a bump up in her numbers. :(
 
MagnarTheGreat said:
Putinists not impressed with JD Vance.


www.businessinsider.com

Trump pollster is already warning his rattled team that Harris is going to jump ahead in the polls

A Trump pollster warned of a "Harris Honeymoon" but called for calm in an internal memo sent to the rattled campaign.
www.businessinsider.com www.businessinsider.com

Trump’s numbers are pretty stable. It’s that undecideds have been jumping on and jumping off about siding with the Democratic candidate.

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The beard. :beaming:

I love the division Vance has caused, even amongst Putinists.
 
CaptainWagner said:
Trump is totally gonna find a way to kick him off the ticket, but putting him up against Beshear (real deal vs. poser) or Walz (friendly grandpa vs. total weirdo) would be brutal.
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Didn't he say he wouldn't debate Kamala? Can't imagine he'd get on the stage with anyone else.
 
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