Election 2012

[Matt]

Here we can discuss candidates and news about the 2012 U.S. elections (its only two years off). t:

 

[Franklin Richards]

Kinky Friedman 2012

 

[Matt Mortem]

From what I saw this Election, Obama doesn't really stand a chance. Failure to compromise on both sides has led to a stale Obama presidency. My guess is it'll go to a Republican. I'm not happy about it, but looking at the polls and election results, the Republicans will take it back. I just hope that the Republican we get is more moderate and not super conservative. But who knows, maybe the Dems will keep the presidency.

 

[StorminNorman]

If Gary Johnson hires me, he will win the GOP nomination behind a coalition of libertarian, younger voters and Tea Party support. Gary Johnson can beat Obama in the college vote which would effectively destroy Obama's entire campaign.

 

[Matt Mortem]

Obama's campaign is going to kind of be a "Can I have a Do-Over?" I don't foresee him getting a second term

 

[chaseter]

Charles Sauerkraut said it best last night on Fox News and I am paraphrasing:

With the Republicans winning only the House and not the Senate, they are ensuring a victory for 2012. Repubs will be making legislation and it will get turned down by a Democratic Senate and a Democratic Executive if it even makes it to Obama's desk. If any more terrible Democrat policies get pushed through, then Democrats are still in control of the Senate and the House so the fault will still lie at their feet if things go more sour in the next 2 years.

It is so funny. One year ago I was certain Obama would win re-election no matter what...pretty sure he thought that too. 3 months ago I thought he still stood a good chance and it would be really close. Now, he doesn't stand a chance. The Republicans will once again have a super majority in 2012 if they don't throw up an idiot like Palin as President.

 

[Hobgoblin]

Where is the "too early to tell" option?

 

[Dr. Evil]

If Sarah Palin runs, Foreign policy is what may kill her run for the White House. If she does not have a legit foreign policy plan, she may not even be the Republican Nominee running against Obama. That's a factor people are overlooking. I know that current domestic issues are at the forefront, but sooner or later, the issue of Foreign policy will be brought up during the Republican debates that would feature Palin, Romney, Gingrich, Barbour or whoever else decides to run.

 

[StorminNorman]

Palin won't win if a Ron Paul-type runs. Half the Tea Party will vote Libertarian and the other half would be split between Palin and Huckabee.

If such a Ron Paul type doesn't run, I think Barbour will end with the nomination. My father has worked closely with both him and Newt and considers both men to be among the brightest minds in the party.

 

[Dr. Evil]

One of the CBS News Analysts said last night that there could be a legit third party candidate for 2012. His name: New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who would run as an Independent.

 

[StorminNorman]

Bloomberg would probably win in an Obama/Palin election.

His election would be awful for America, but it makes tons of political sense.

 

[Prison Mike]

I would vote for Bloomberg hands down.

 

[chaseter]

You can't vote with your hands down.

 

[Prison Mike]

I'd use my nose

 

[chesslover]

I'd use your nose too.

 

[DACrowe]

Matt, I know you're counting the days to when Obama may no longer be president...but isn't this a bit early? Whoever thinks they know how the 2012 election will play out on 11/3/2010 is deluded.

With that said...looking at Angle, O'Donnell and Paladino...PALIN 2012. C'mon Tea Partiers, go for it.

 

[The Squirrel]

Unless he makes a drastic change and learns to start working with people, then no, I don't think he will get re-elected.

 

[Hobgoblin]

Just because the Dems didnt do well in the midterm doesnt mean that Obama is doomed in 2012. Reagan and Clinton both got re-elected after getting creamed in '82 and '94.

 

[Spider-Nerd]

Just because the Dems didnt do well in the midterm doesnt mean that Obama is doomed in 2012. Reagan and Clinton both got re-elected after getting creamed in '82 and '94.

This. I think a huge part of it hinges on who the GOP decides to send through the primaries. I don't care how "mildly unpopular" Obama gets. Things continuing on the track they're on, Palin would get creamed by Obama in a general election. The GOP would be far better putting up a candidate who isn't so polarizing in a general election.

Exit polls seem to indicate that most voters while dissatisfied with the dems, aren't entirely thrilled with the GOP either. If we have 2 years of gridlock both parties are going to have a tough time. I still don't know where the GOP is going with their, "we want to repeal healthcare!" since they don't hold either the senate or the white house at this time. If however the GOP does what they claim to do and cut spending from defense or medicare (and in the process showing balls the dems seemed to lack) then things might get more competitive.

 

[Arc-Light]

If only Palin is on the ticket, then the Rep-vote gets split...then Obama 2014...

 

[SentinelMind]

It looks bad for Obama, ...leaning more towards not likely (I think I saw a poll that 50%+ think he won't be re-elected).

However, its not impossible for him to be re-elected. If the GOP puts up an incompetent challenger and the unemployment rate comes down a bit then he can win. O'Donnel and Angle are fresh examples that a Palin candidacy would be a disaster.

The GOP needs a safe, stable, respected candidate (not a flamethrower) to win in 2012.

EDIT: Researching Gary Johnson...he does fit the profile of a candidate than can definitely trounce Obama.

On second inspection, I know this may sound frivolous and trivial in grand political scheme, but I can see his divorce causing a problem.

 

[StorminNorman]

Just because the Dems didnt do well in the midterm doesnt mean that Obama is doomed in 2012. Reagan and Clinton both got re-elected after getting creamed in '82 and '94.

The difference is that not only has Obama yet to prove he is on par with Reagan and Clinton in terms of quality of politician (both are among the most popular of the decade), Obama has proven that he ISN'T half the politician those men are.

Obama's problem is that he hasn't simply been too liberal for America, he has been stupid too. You can recover from the former by being pragmatic, I don't think you can recover from the latter. Especially when you are losing the only guy in the administration that seems remotely competent.

 

[Dr. Evil]

There are also key Congressional seats up for grabs in 2012. Lieberman, Kerry, Hastert, Luger, Cornyn, to name a few.

 

[StorminNorman]

I would love to see Kerry lose.

 

[hippie_hunter]

I think it all comes down to how Obama will work with the Republicans. If he pulls a Bill Clinton and knows when to work with them and when to fight them (the economy would also have to improve), he will win. However, Obama so far has shown that he doesn't know how to pick his battles and on the ones he does pick, he does a really bad job at fighting (fighting Fox News, spending all of his political capitol on health care reform, etc.).

It also will come down to who the Republicans nominate. If a Tea Party candidate is elected, they will have to be more like Marco Rubio than Sharon Angle, Ken Buck, Sarah Palin, and Christine O'Donnell. The nomination is going to have to come down to who will be a competent candidate, have a personality that doesn't look like a crazy person (Angle and O'Donnell) or an ******* (Miller and Buck), and please both the establishment and Tea Party bases that will be able to campaign nationally.