F'dup Chapters in American History(The Trump Years) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Part 25

[DeadPresident]

Israel (some would argue preemptively) targeted military sites of their enemies, it should be rather predictable that at first available opportunity there would be retaliation.

And so the wheels on the military bus go round and round.

 

[Sithborg]

And now, despite leaving it, the administration is saying that Iran must continue to abide by it, even though we will still be doing sanctions.

Bolton really wants his war. Luckily, the EU is interested in keeping the deal working.

 

[Doug_Moore]

President Trump rescued 3 prisoners.

President Obama left Otto Warmbier for dead.

This is low. Even for him.

 

[Sithborg]

Here's hoping the FBI found some fun stuff in Cohen's files.

EDIT: And this makes me feel safe...

http://theweek.com/speedreads/77249...ping-white-house-cybersecurity-chief-position

 

[Aximili86]

Israel (some would argue preemptively) targeted military sites of their enemies, it should be rather predictable that at first available opportunity there would be retaliation.

And so the wheels on the military bus go round and round.

Of course the bus goes around and around, it's been that way since the dawn of human history.

But you have this completely backwards with the chicken-or-egg thing. Israel (though not admitting these earlier ones officially) has been striking Syrian/Assad forces inside Syria for 6 months, a year maybe. Not Iranians inside Syria, but actual Assad forces, after said Assad guys had been firing stuff over the border. That was retaliatory by Israel, if admittedly a good deal larger and disproportionate (but "proportionate warfare" is a myth in the first place, the reality is you use what you have, just like Assad's guys do).

In this very-specific separate instance after Trump scrapped the deal, where the actual Revolutionary Guard got in on the hostilities, Israel didn't fire first. This is coming from ****ing Ben Wedeman of CNN reporting from Lebanon.

What are they supposed to do? Just absorb the rockets, pretend it didn't happen, not fire back? That's insanity. Doesn't matter they have way more advanced equipment and aren't at an existential threat from the Quds guys in Syria, you don't tolerate Iranian hostiles in their little-brother proxy state throwing temper tantrums over the deal in the form of actual tangible munitions across your border.

 

[Sithborg]

You also don't sick snipers on civilians. [shrug]

 

[Aximili86]

ie. Hamas voters rushing the actual Israeli border.

This is a gray line in the region, it's the whole damn reason this is complicated.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Someone who is praying is rushing what exactly?

 

[Aximili86]

If you're referring to the journalist and the others that were shot recently, they were walking toward the border, and had warning shots preceding the fire.

They were admitted Hamas sympathizers. The IDF's going to be wary.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

So they shoot journalist, clearly marked as so. You really want to defend that... interesting.

 

[Aximili86]

Well, sure. What did they think was going to happen? Same way a journalist embedded with Kurdish militia isn't going to try to walk on into Turkey, your life's in your hands if you pull that sort of thing.

 

[Aximili86]

Interesting. Politico's projecting that Democrats don't take back the Senate. Still seems it could go either way to me, but Politico of all places taking a stance on the outcome of this is pretty intriguing.


https://www.politico.com/magazine/s...democrats-win-the-2018-senate-midterms-218330

 

[SV Fan]

Interesting. Politico's projecting that Democrats don't take back the Senate. Still seems it could go either way to me, but Politico of all places taking a stance on the outcome of this is pretty intriguing.


https://www.politico.com/magazine/s...democrats-win-the-2018-senate-midterms-218330

Dems will have a tough time, I believe they are defending like 26 seats compared to 9 for the republicans(many in "Red States" and I don't mean Trump won states but ones Romney won)

In terms of what they can win it looks like a good chance they win Nevada, Arizona might be in play(especially if the Arizona Primary goes the wrong way), and Tennessee and Texas are more long shots.

 

[KRYPTON INC.]

Interesting. Politico's projecting that Democrats don't take back the Senate. Still seems it could go either way to me, but Politico of all places taking a stance on the outcome of this is pretty intriguing.


https://www.politico.com/magazine/s...democrats-win-the-2018-senate-midterms-218330

I don't think there was a consensus among the analysts worth listening to out there that the Dems were going to take the Senate. The story for months has been a squeeker of win in the House, gains but no control of the Senate. So... This information changes nothing.

 

[Aximili86]

Yeah, I knew the House was leaning to a change, just sort of figured the Senate was at least in play too.

 

[DeadPresident]

Of course the bus goes around and around, it's been that way since the dawn of human history.

But you have this completely backwards with the chicken-or-egg thing. Israel (though not admitting these earlier ones officially) has been striking Syrian/Assad forces inside Syria for 6 months, a year maybe. Not Iranians inside Syria, but actual Assad forces, after said Assad guys had been firing stuff over the border. That was retaliatory by Israel, if admittedly a good deal larger and disproportionate (but "proportionate warfare" is a myth in the first place, the reality is you use what you have, just like Assad's guys do).

In this very-specific separate instance after Trump scrapped the deal, where the actual Revolutionary Guard got in on the hostilities, Israel didn't fire first. This is coming from ****ing Ben Wedeman of CNN reporting from Lebanon.

What are they supposed to do? Just absorb the rockets, pretend it didn't happen, not fire back? That's insanity. Doesn't matter they have way more advanced equipment and aren't at an existential threat from the Quds guys in Syria, you don't tolerate Iranian hostiles in their little-brother proxy state throwing temper tantrums over the deal in the form of actual tangible munitions across your border.

I agree with most of what you've said in principle, but in practice Israel is the biggest, baddest wolf in terms of humanitarian morality for armchair leftists - so whatever comes their way will be seen to be sufficient because they have to pay for their past and present sins.

I've said this before and I'll say it again, Netanyahu and Likud's heavy-handed approach over the last couple of decades has eroded any goodwill there may have been for Israel or the idea of a Jewish homeland. That same heavy-handedness is what has people whispering the word 'zionist' like it's akin to disgusting taboo words like 'necrophiliac'. Just claiming that Israel has a right to exist is a controversial statement these days, and the primary reason why is because nationalist tendency controls Israeli politics - understandably to some degree. The current generation didn't live through the second world war, they didn't live through the pogroms in eastern Europe, so they have no innate sympathy for Jews or Zionism. That innate global sympathy now rightfully lies with immigrants from the Middle East, so Israel's existence being positive isn't a given anymore.

Until they cede some ground, literally and figuratively, to the Palestinians, nobody in the international community will give a **** about civilian Israeli threat or even deaths. I agree with Israel's right to defend itself, but given its conduct over the past few decades is it any surprise they've been skillfully painted as the villain in this story?

 

[Aximili86]

I mean, in terms of the '67 borders, I actually do think they should roll them back, dismantle these settlements.

The thing is though, that doesn't end anything. You really think Hamas (and by virtue the civilians who voted for them) is going to throw up their shoulders in a massive shrug and state "hey, guess those big-noses aren't so bad after all! Let's talk!"? You can roll the borders back, dismantle the border wall and the recent settlements, and they're still going to be having bus bombs & rocket attacks each and every opportunity Hamas is able to pull one off.

At a certain point, it kind of becomes "you can't negotiate with any party who's called for you to be wiped off the map, just yesterday". There's really no even option for detante so long as the civvies are voting in Hamas. And that's not changing any time soon.

As for Iran, they're going to be in "make Tel Aviv go BOOM!" mode so long as the theocracy there exists, doesn't matter what policies are going on in Israel one way or the other.

Regarding other middle-eastern nations, you've got this weird mutual-interests thing going on. The Saudis obviously have no love for the Jews, but anything countering Iran is good for the Saudis. Jordan and Egypt do official business/recognization with Israel, UAE pretty sure does too, unsure on Turkey.

But laying all of this broader "death to the zionists!" stuff on the '67 borders issue is pretty silly. Been going on long before that, will be going on long after all of us are dead & buried. Netanyahu's bluster doesn't help, but this is a million times bigger than Bibi.

 

[Doug_Moore]

Interesting. Politico's projecting that Democrats don't take back the Senate. Still seems it could go either way to me, but Politico of all places taking a stance on the outcome of this is pretty intriguing.

I find all the BLUE WAVE talk hilarious given that Democrats have more seats to defend.

 

[Sithborg]

I find all the BLUE WAVE talk hilarious given that Democrats have more seats to defend.

Because the election is more than the Senate. Frankly, based on what has been going on, the Senate is a long shot.

But the House and a ton of state level races, yeah, that's where the concern is. Especially since the red wave in 2010 screwed over a ton of people on the state level.

 

[MaceB]

I think Democrats are making the same mistake that they made in 16 by assuming that their eggs have already hatched. A massive blue victory in November is not assured... we shouldn't think it is.

Have you guys seen Trump in these rallies? He knows how to gin people up, and he's ALREADY priming his base for a big turn out. He's saying that his presidency is in jeopardy. He's saying that liberals are against "everything we believe in." He's making this a cultural war... and you know what... his voters are gonna come out for him, big time.

We need every vote. A lackluster performance by Democrats simply won't do. We need all guns ablazing this time around. All hands on deck. This is an emergency. I'm just not getting that feeling from Democrats. I'm getting more of a "oh, you know we're gonna pick up a lot of seats in the midterms... it's gotta happen under Trump." No it doesn't.

 

[Sithborg]

I don't think they are? Because participation, or potential candidates are up. Especially on the local level. I mean, there is a reason why Scott Walker tried to break Wisconsin law about holding a special election for a state seat that should have been safe. Why the Texas governor is issuing warnings to GOP to not get complacent, as Dems are out fundraising the GOP. Hell, even Dem incumbents are facing tough primaries. Why do you think old fogey's like Schumer and Feinstein are changing their tune about marijuana?

Yes, it is going to be tough. But the the polls cannot begin to accurately make guesses until primaries are over. You may be worried about the Cult of Trump that shows up at his rallies. But do you know who outnumbered them? The Women's March and the March for Our Lives. Remember those when you get worried about the future.

 

[DeadPresident]

Mace is right that the Dems need to avoid being overconfident. The Republicans win this kind of **** because they work on fear and it mobilizes people, the Dems can't assume because they occupy a superior moral position it's some kind of preordained result.

They need to be playing the game as much as the Republicans are, they should be mobilizing people on the grounds that Trump's presidency is an attack on all the values the American constitution tries to instill in society. "Things will work out because we're right and they're wrong" isn't a sufficient approach. Trump knows how to get airtime and he knows that converts into numbers, the Dems need to work on their own way of mirroring that dynamic. Preferably they shouldn't use the same fear-mongering methods, but they need to guarantee a turnout one way or another.

 

[Sithborg]

On the other hand, Trump airtime isn't necessarily a helpful thing.

 

[MaceB]

On the other hand, Trump airtime isn't necessarily a helpful thing.

I feel like that's what we said in 16. "Don't worry that he's dominating the coverage... the stories aren't complimentary and Americans won't stand for it."

The man knows how to market himself. We underestimate him at our own risk.

 

[Sithborg]

And then Comey happened. And frankly, a lot of the doomsayers are ignoring what has been happening in the past year.