Green Lantern Box Office Prediction Thread

[Raiden]

The real kicker is word of mouth, if its as pants as all the reviews are suggesting this film will burn out in no time.

Yeah, exactly. I like Iron Man 2 but didn't love it, and it ended up performing less than the first IM thanks to more bad reviews and weaker WOM than its predecessor. One can say that IM2 was critic-proof too, but it didn't turn out this way.

 

[craigdbfan]

Revenge of the Fallen. Now that was critic proof.

It was garbage for the most part but most people that compromise the GA loved it.

 

[Iron_Stark]

Sorry, those count, those are Marvel properties.

I guess we won't count any of the DC movies since Warner Bros. distributed them.....

Lol, you're just not getting are you? That, or you're just thick.

Read my post again, Marvel Studios, STUDIOS, made the movies I listed that have been really good to great.

Sony, Fox, Lionsgate and others made some good ones and some sub par to terrible ones. This lead Marvel brass to get their properties back(actually Man-Thing was the final straw), form their own studio and start making movies their way. So yeah it is pretty dumb to blame Marvel for past failures.

Now that Disney owns Marvel, if the Avengers, Iron Man 3 and beyond suck lay the blame on Disney aswell.

Sorry, WB still owns DC and they both had to come to agreements on what was put out (Catwoman), something Marvel didn't have. Those failures are on them.

 

[Raiden]

Revenge of the Fallen. Now that was critic proof.

It was garbage for the most part but most people that compromise the GA loved it.

Ugh, don't remind me. As a TF fan since '85 that movie was horrible. I don't care if that movie made money...it's the biggest pile of steaming turd I've ever seen in theatre.

 

[craigdbfan]

Ugh, don't remind me. As a TF fan since '85 that movie was horrible. I don't care if that movie made money...it's the biggest pile of steaming turd I've ever seen in theatre.

Saw it on IMAX and got a huge headache. ROTF for the most part was an atrocity other than ILM's work the movie was worthless.

Fan of the Transformers since Beast Wars (not as long as you have) but I still enjoyed the first Transformers film very much despite some of its short comings, I thought what it did well totally compensated for it.

ROTF killed any momentum that the first built up. Thankfully DOTM legitimately looks better than ROTF.

 

[Marvin]

DOTM's opening weekend will directly reflect how much momentum was killed by the last movie...I'm guess it will open lower than First Class because according to fans wolverine and X3 weren't as bad as the crap that was ROTF.

yea definitely in the 50's no maybe the 60's like thor because of the 3D boost

 

[Raiden]

Saw it on IMAX and got a huge headache. ROTF for the most part was an atrocity other than ILM's work the movie was worthless.

Fan of the Transformers since Beast Wars (not as long as you have) but I still enjoyed the first Transformers film very much despite some of its short comings, I thought what it did well totally compensated for it.

ROTF killed any momentum that the first built up. Thankfully DOTM legitimately looks better than ROTF.

I really hope so. Despite my misgivings about Michael Bay, I was surprised to discover that I really enjoyed the first TF movie. And when I saw that they introduced the combiner Devastator in ROTF, I had assume that it means this movie will be unbelievable. Little that I know that a pair of "twins" in the movie had a Jar Jar Binks effect on the rest of the movie. I hope DOTM will be better but as of now I don't plan to see it in theatre yet.

Anyway, I doubt GL can withstand bad reviews like ROTF did because it introduces a relatively-unknown superhero to the GA (like Iron Man), so it has alot more obstacles to overcome. If its OW is less than 80-90 I don't think it can make a profit for WB even with WW gross, since they need to double the budget to get in the black.

 

[craigdbfan]

I really hope so. Despite my misgivings about Michael Bay, I was surprised to discover that I really enjoyed the first TF movie. And when I saw that they introduced the combiner Devastator in ROTF, I had assume that it means this movie will be unbelievable. Little that I know that a pair of "twins" in the movie had a Jar Jar Binks effect on the rest of the movie. I hope DOTM will be better but as of now I don't plan to see it in theatre yet.

Anyway, I doubt GL can withstand bad reviews like ROTF did because it introduces a relatively-unknown superhero to the GA (like Iron Man), so it has alot more obstacles to overcome. If its OW is less than 80-90 I don't think it can make a profit for WB even with WW gross, since they need to double the budget to get in the black.

I'm still watching TF in theaters. It's too luring for me to not go and see it.

As for GL I completely agree.

 

[Sabaoth]

In what, Pesos?

 

[superion]

DOTM's opening weekend will directly reflect how much momentum was killed by the last movie...I'm guess it will open lower than First Class because according to fans wolverine and X3 weren't as bad as the crap that was ROTF.

yea definitely in the 50's no maybe the 60's like thor because of the 3D boost

Um Transformers 3 is tracking to open at $175 million for its first 5 days. Transformer is critic proof.

GL on the other hand is tracking between anywhere from a low of $45 million to a high of $60 million. With the bad reviews I think the $45 number is more likely. Something like GL which has no existing fan base is definitely not critic proof.

As far as advertising is concerned the Transformer trailers pretty much blows everything else away this summer with its Giant robots smashing the city.

 

[Gamma Burst]

Dude, it is common sense that the general audience basically doesn't give a damn about reviews on movies from movie critics.

First Class got alot of good reviews but the general audience wasn't in a rush to go see it because of all of the good reviews from the movie critics. Pirates 4 got alot of bad reviews from the movie critics but many people didn't give a damn about those bad reviews.

You're in denial, as always. Pirates 4 isn't a good example since the previous movies were tremendously successful.

 

[Marvin]

Um Transformers 3 is tracking to open at $175 million for its first 5 days. Transformer is critic proof.

GL on the other hand is tracking between anywhere from a low of $45 million to a high of $60 million. With the bad reviews I think the $45 number is more likely. Something like GL which has no existing fan base is definitely not critic proof.

As far as advertising is concerned the Transformer trailers pretty much blows everything else away this summer with its Giant robots smashing the city.

agreed
I was being sarcastic.

the way people and critics talk about it you wonder why the series didn't get the GL treatment.

 

[Weadazoid]

TF is what it is ginormous robots fighting eachother....


I HATED RotF..... but I have to say just watching Prime take out that ginormous wheelabout thing in the beginning of the movie was worth the price of the ticket.... it was a better fight then the final fight...............


People will pay to see TF 3 I suppose.



Huge mega sequals to well recvd movies are critic proof.


Sequals to mediocre..... just made enough to get buy sequals often fail.... IE FF2 and face it Ghost Rider 2 will go this way as well.



I can't say I really know of any major C.B. movies that got bashed by critics as a first run that were trully successful...

 

[Marvin]

pirates 4 is in arms reach of a billion world wide...I'm impressed.

 

[Gamma Burst]

Boxoffice lowered its prediction for the opening weekend. It's at 50M now.

 

[psylockolussus]

I'm guessing $50 million to $65 million.

 

[SuperBatman]

I could see this performing like Fantastic Four sure GL is getting bad reviews but FF pretty much got bad reviews to and still made 56 dollars in its 1st weekend.

 

[Ultimatehero]

I could see this performing like Fantastic Four sure GL is getting bad reviews but FF pretty much got bad reviews to and still made 56 dollars in its 1st weekend.

Not that this means anything, but also I'd say Green Lantern has bigger stars in it. As well as outer space scenes in the trailers. Basically things that could draw a bigger audience than Fantastic Four. Both were unknown as well.

 

[DW4]

I see it making about 65 million domestically the first week and maybe 175 domestically at the end, WW total though should be north of 400 million.

This movie needs to make money if there is a chance at all of a Justice League, Flash, Wonder Woman etc etc movie.

Marvel's attempt with Iron Man paid off for them, big time.

DC and WB's attempt with GL might not do the same...

 

[Raiden]

I see it making about 65 million domestically the first week and maybe 175 domestically at the end, WW total though should be north of 400 million.

This movie needs to make money if there is a chance at all of a Justice League, Flash, Wonder Woman etc etc movie.

Marvel's attempt with Iron Man paid off for them, big time.

DC and WB's attempt with GL might not do the same...

And Iron Man costs way cheaper than GL, which factor in their chance of profitability.

 

[Marvin]

And Iron Man costs way cheaper than GL, which factor in their chance of profitability.

They should have went way more practical and saved money in this installment.
If the Lantern Core don't have anything to do, than save their introduction for the second film etc, Lose the costly suits...etc.

Production wise, they should have made the film they needed.
I usually come down on marvel for doing this but in this case the spending is irresponsible.

 

[Chewy]

The real problem is that it opens in most major overseas markets over the next few months and if WOM is as bad as it seems like it will be the movie won't even open well in those territories, let alone have legs.

It'll have a good opening in the US and that might be just about it.

 

[jmc]

Yep, the staggered release dates are what's gonna kill it. And I thought Cap Am was in for a tough time overseas.

 

[Weadazoid]

Rex Reeds review is the most brutal I have read .... \

 

[Marvin]

link?