Green Lantern Box Office Prediction Thread

[FilmNerdJamie]

First Class came in a little under the predictions but that doesn't mean it is doing awful.

It was predicted to do in the mid 60s at the lowest and mid 80s at the highest. To say it came in a little under those predictions with a mid 50s opening is rewriting history.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Thor did fine but First Class didn't even though they cost the same to make and they sold the same number of tickets opening weekend? 3D tickets sales made Thor successful and First Class under perform?

In a nutshell, yes. Expensive 3D tickets saved Thor's ass. Even excising those prices it was never going to bomb or anything but the 3D tickets are making it's domestic and international gross look better.

 

[chaseter]

$5-$10 million off is re-writing history? News to me.

Who predicted $80+? All the places I saw had it in the 60s.

 

[Showtime]

If you want to use X-Men in comparison to Green Lantern fine guys. However, this isn't the X-Men forum. Move on.

 

[chaseter]

In a nutshell, yes. Expensive 3D tickets saved Thor's ass.

I don't think so. I think they would have still made a sequel with $150ish domestic and 350ish worldwide. Did it help it? Yes. Did it save it? No.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It was predicted to do in the mid 60s at the lowest and mid 80s at the highest. To say it came in a little under those predictions with a mid 50s opening is rewriting history.

First Class is going by far be the lowest attended X-Men related film. If it were being as hailed as the fans say it should be heading towards 185 to 200mil because the first movie has sold about 230mil worth of tickets in todays dollars.

 

[The Morningstar]

The fact that Thor had so many 3D screen also hindered it. I can't even beging to count the amount of times people have told me they didn't bother with Thor because they couldn't find 2D screenings.

3D is a double edged sword. More expensive tickets... but less tickets sold.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

^It would be interesting to see what Thor would have did one way or the other if 3D wasn't forced on people

Anyway back to GL's boxoffice:

If I had to guess, I'd say that I don't think that GL will have good legs for the type of film it is. Transformers 3 will more likely than not kill it dead. Unless the movie has amazing word of mouth. (unlikely)

 

[chaseter]

First Class is going by far be the lowest attended X-Men related film. If it were being as hailed as the fans say it should be heading towards 185 to 200mil because the first movie has sold about 230mil worth of tickets in todays dollars.

Fans =/= the general audience.

The fact that Thor had so many 3D screen also hindered it. I can't even beging to count the amount of times people have told me they didn't bother with Thor because they couldn't find 2D screenings.

3D is a double edged sword. More expensive tickets... but less tickets sold.

I agree. I think it will die off again and be used sparingly for big budget big action big spectacle films like Transformers. I don't anything anybody gives a crap whether Spider-Man or Men In Black will be in 3D.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

^Agreed.

 

[The Morningstar]

God i hope so, 3D, even if it is actually well done, gives me a splitting head ache after half hour.

 

[Sith Scotti]

Thor did fine but I'm not going to play up it's boxoffice as if it performed as well as Spider-Man or Iron Man. Fanboys are free to do that but I won't. As for First Class it is just flat out underperforming right now, domestically anyhow.

Nor could it do tjhose numbers Spiderman and Batman are in a different league than anyone and Iron Man has Robert Downey Jr . A No name lead in a second tier comic book those numbers are dasmn great .

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

Best thing for Green Lantern is it doesn't have a direct competitor next weekend in the key demo (18-49 male/superhero-sci fi-action genre).

Cars 2 will open huge (Wouldn't be surprised if it struck up $100 million) but...that's mostly going to be parents, aunts/uncles, grandparents, etc. dragged by the young uns. Although Pixar has a seal of quality with audiences. As my best friend said, "They're like Hershey or Coca-Cola."

And then there's Bad Teacher - the comedy with Cameron Diaz who's been on the outs with audiences' tastes for awhile now.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

No the X-Men: First Class numbers aren't great.

Anyway I am so interested to see what GL's friday is going to do.

 

[Raiden]

Best thing for Green Lantern is it doesn't have a direct competitor next weekend in the key demo (18-49 male/superhero-sci fi-action genre).

Cars 2 will open huge (Wouldn't be surprised if it struck up $100 million) but...that's mostly going to be parents, aunts/uncles, grandparents, etc. dragged by the young uns. Although Pixar has a seal of quality with audiences. As my best friend said, "They're like Hershey or Coca-Cola."

And then there's Bad Teacher - the comedy with Cameron Diaz who's been on the outs with audiences' tastes for awhile now.

The problem for GL is the Pixar's movies score pretty well against just about any demographic, even in the key demo of 18-49 male. But I think if GL drops drastically, it won't be mainly due to Cars 2, but due to WOM.

 

[dark_b]

Showtime and Filmnerdjamie. what do you think will happen with DC and their movies if GL underperforms ? only batman and superman or could Flash happen even if GL underperforms?

do you think if GL does bad at the BO that WB will think that the general public doesnt like fantasy space scifi superhero movies ?

thanks

 

[Marvin]

casting is probably what pushed Thors weekend past XFC

portman and hopkins in an Xmen movie might have given it a great push.
Kat dennings too.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

Showtime and Filmnerdjamie. what do you think will happen with DC and their movies if GL underperforms ? only batman and superman or could Flash happen even if GL underperforms?

do you think if GL does bad at the BO that WB will think that the general public doesnt like fantasy space scifi superhero movies ?

thanks

The Dark Knight Rises and The Man of Steel are obviously safe. Everything else as a result of Green Lantern's hypothetical failure/under-performance? Nope.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Thor sold about the same number of tickets opening weekend as First Class.

The Dark Knight Rises and The Man of Steel are obviously safe. Everything else as a result of Green Lantern's hypothetical failure/under-performance? Nope.

I'm curious if GL opens with lets say 65mil and has the legs and word of mouth to reach 200mil, eventhough the budget is 200mil+ will WB see that as a failure?

 

[chaseter]

I'm curious if GL opens with lets say 65mil and has the legs and word of mouth to reach 200mil, eventhough the budget is 200mil+ will WB see that as a failure?

I don't think so. If it makes 200 domestic and another 200+ worldwide then it is obviously a success with dvd sales. If it makes 150 domestic and 150 worldwide then well I think we will never see GL2 or Flash or Martian Manhunter or anything besides Batman, Superman, and The Justice League.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

casting is probably what pushed Thors weekend past XFC

portman and hopkins in an Xmen movie might have given it a great push.
Kat dennings too.

and 3D.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

^3D was the only thing. Especially internationally. 3D is helping tons of movies overseas.

 

[dark_b]

The Dark Knight Rises and The Man of Steel are obviously safe. Everything else as a result of Green Lantern's hypothetical failure/under-performance? Nope.

thanks. do you maybe know if the budget without marketing was close to 250?

i got some info from an cgi artist that told me that in the last 4 month they were sweating like Dwayne Johnson in Fast Five. they even joked that sometimes they got a feeling like everyone was expecting from them to just urinate in their pants. in februar they were doing stuff that should already be done in november/december. so when it comes to CGI it looked like a rushed production. i guess planing is not something that WB and Cambel likes they started working on GL very fast.so this had to make the budget very very very high.

i personal dont belive that the budget was 300 with marketing.to low hehehe

not that it matters. the ticket is the same if the budget is 100 or 200. but i like when money is not thrown out of the window .

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

The movie looked hella expensive. It had to cost atleast 200mil.

 

[DarkKnight88]

Quality has nothing to do with box office. Do reviews really matter? Not really. Transformers 2 has 20% on rottentomatoes yet made 800 M worldwide. The internet doesn't mean anything for the general audience.