Guardians of the Galaxy Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[StormC]

If I had to guess, studios are hesitant to put their stronger stuff in the May slot since that's when Marvel has typically dropped their A-game.

 

[Tony Stark]

Looks like AC will hold the lead for the weekend. Guardians was about 1M below studio estimates, but still a good hold at -46%. It will be interesting during the week to see if it's able to catch and surpass the numbers Ultron was pulling going into memorial day. if it has a solid performance for Memorial Day then 400M is still in play. I think 375M is the floor right now. It should pull ahead of Alien Covenant which should have a fairly steep drop, although the bleeding might be stemmed a bit from the holiday.

 

[InCali]

On a side note, I think a big reason these movies skew domestic compared to other Marvel movies is a big selling point is their humor, which doesn't always translate well to other languages/countries.

It's a factor that I've been bringing up since the first GotG. "Nothing goes over my head......"??? How do you translate that and make it as funny. Colloquialisms, by definition, don't translate well. It hurts some, but probably not as much as exchange rates changing. It'll be interesting to see, after all is said and done, how it would have done at 2014 levels.

 

[NJCaliboy]

Looks like AC will hold the lead for the weekend. Guardians was about 1M below studio estimates, but still a good hold at -46%. It will be interesting during the week to see if it's able to catch and surpass the numbers Ultron was pulling going into memorial day. if it has a solid performance for Memorial Day then 400M is still in play. I think 375M is the floor right now. It should pull ahead of Alien Covenant which should have a fairly steep drop, although the bleeding might be stemmed a bit from the holiday.

Are there no big movies coming out Memorial Wknd? doesn't that sound strange- how come the studios didn't take advantage of that? Maybe Wonder Woman should have moved up a week to capitalize, assuming no big movies are opening.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Are there no big movies coming out Memorial Wknd? doesn't that sound strange- how come the studios didn't take advantage of that? Maybe Wonder Woman should have moved up a week to capitalize, assuming no big movies are opening.

You have Baywatch and Pirates 5 both coming out in wide release. (I know, I know. Insert "I said big movies" joke here.)

 

[Tony Stark]

Are there no big movies coming out Memorial Wknd? doesn't that sound strange- how come the studios didn't take advantage of that? Maybe Wonder Woman should have moved up a week to capitalize, assuming no big movies are opening.

Pirates of the Caribbean will be the big draw, but if you look at Civil War and Ultron over Memorial Day which is right around where Guardians will be sitting would put it somewhere just over 20M for Fri-Sun and may be around 28M for the full Holiday.

However based on the legs this has I think there's a good chance this could end up around 30M from Fri-Mon.

 

[NJCaliboy]

Pirates of the Caribbean will be the big draw, but if you look at Civil War and Ultron over Memorial Day which is right around where Guardians will be sitting would put it somewhere just over 20M for Fri-Sun and may be around 28M for the full Holiday.

However based on the legs this has I think there's a good chance this could end up around 30M from Fri-Mon.

Funny I always thought Pirates was one of the elephant sized franchises expected to bring huge numbers, guess they made one too many...

As for GOTG2 would this be a fair assessment for Fri-Sat-Sun-Mon (Memorial wknd) totals:

30 million and above= Excellent (and a shot at 400 million)
25- 30 million= Good (will likely fall below 400 million)
24 million and below= Bad (will definitely not hit 400 million)

Is that about right IYO?

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Pirates will make bank OS.

 

[InCali]

Funny I always thought Pirates was one of the elephant sized franchises expected to bring huge numbers, guess they made one too many...

As for GOTG2 would this be a fair assessment for Fri-Sat-Sun-Mon (Memorial wknd) totals:

30 million and above= Excellent (and a shot at 400 million)
25- 30 million= Good (will likely fall below 400 million)
24 million and below= Bad (will definitely not hit 400 million)

Is that about right IYO?

One? Can't wait for the next Crapformers...maybe they made one too many of those too.....

It'll make a lot of money. I doubt they'll have to deal with colloquialisms...

 

[StormC]

I wouldn't be surprised if Pirates 5 comes close to a billion on just international receipts. 4 did 800M outside America and the international box office has exploded during the last decade since then.

The domestic box office will be hurt by the critical reception and Depp's scandal, I reckon. Probably in the ballpark of 200M (70-80M OW).

 

[BaelaTargaryen]

http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/t...-gotg-ii-117-m-everything-everything/?page=57

Actuals

1 N Alien: Covenant Fox $36,160,621 - 3,761 - $9,615 $36,160,621 $97 1
2 1 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 BV $34,653,754 -46.9% 4,347 - $7,972 $301,391,228 $200 3

 

[Flint Marko]

Has this opened up in every market yet? What are the chances of it crossing 550 in the foreign markets? It's at 430 right now.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Has this opened up in every market yet? What are the chances of it crossing 550 in the foreign markets? It's at 430 right now.

Yes and none.

 

[Tony Stark]

Pirates and Bay watch are getting trashed. This will hopefully give a boost to Guardians.

 

[Iceman]

Pirates and Bay watch are getting trashed. This will hopefully give a boost to Guardians.

No surprise at all there lol, so probably not much of a boost.

 

[JeetKuneDo]

It's a factor that I've been bringing up since the first GotG. "Nothing goes over my head......"??? How do you translate that and make it as funny. Colloquialisms, by definition, don't translate well. It hurts some, but probably not as much as exchange rates changing. It'll be interesting to see, after all is said and done, how it would have done at 2014 levels.

That's gotta be a huge hurdle for any comedy. It's language and cultural because I know people in the US who don't get British comedy like Monty Python with no language barrier.

I'm trying to imagine how the running joke with Drax and Mantis could translate OS. The big payoff line at the end probably missed completely in most parts of the world.

 

[Iceman]

That's gotta be a huge hurdle for any comedy. It's language and cultural because I know people in the US who don't get British comedy like Monty Python with no language barrier.

I'm trying to imagine how the running joke with Drax and Mantis could translate OS. The big payoff line at the end probably missed completely in most parts of the world.

True.

Also I've seen US guys completely miss jokes in the UK version of The Office.

 

[legendkillin]

Pirates and Bay watch are getting trashed. This will hopefully give a boost to Guardians.

I have 0 interest in either movie. I like The Rock but Baywatch just seemed like a bad idea from the start. I have never been into the Pirate movies and not a fan of Depp.

 

[StormC]

Pirates won't be too affected by reviews. It is a factor, but the series has a fanbase and none of the sequels were well-reviewed. I'm sure Baywatch is done, though.

 

[HammerDown]

Update in the comparison between both Guardians movies and their biggest foreign markets results at this point.

GOTG ------------ // ---------- GOTG 2

Australia - 23M === 22M
Brazil ---- 16M === 17M
China ---- 86M === 94M
France --- 19M === 19M
Germany - 24M === 22M
Mexico ---- 19M === 17M
Russia ----- 23M === 26M
Spain ------ 10M === 8M
South Korea - 9M === 20M
UK --------- 47M === 42M
Japan ----- 9M === 2.9M (Just a few days counted)

Already surpassed GOTG results.
And it will surpass everywhere else without a doubt. I have looked at many markets and taking into account alot of it my estimate for the foreign box office at this point would be around 490M foreign. And it should hit and go over the 850M worldwide.

 

[HammerDown]

The second week saw a decrease of GOTG2 results in comparison to GOTG.
GOTG --------------------GOTG2
Monday - 5.3 -------------- 4.7
Tuesday - 6.6 -------------- 5.9
Wednesday - 4.8 ----------- 3.9
Thursday - 4.2 ------------- 3.6

Now GOTG2 seems to be playing tricks on us because it's doing better on it's 3rd week. It's just one day so we gotta wait and see if this will continue or not but still...
GOTG --------------------GOTG2
Monday - 2.8 --------------- 3.5

 

[iEquinox]

Now GOTG2 seems to be playing tricks on us because it's doing better on it's 3rd week. It's just one day so we gotta wait and see if this will continue or not but still...
GOTG --------------------GOTG2
Monday - 2.8 --------------- 3.5

Monday was Victoria Day in Canada, which boosted the domestic Monday numbers. So the Tuesday increase will be smaller than usual this week. Tuesday might even drop from Monday.

GotG was also entering mid August by this time in it's release, so schools were starting in some states, which was lowering weekday numbers while boosting weekends. Direct comparison to GotG like this is hard, since there's a lot of variables like these to keep in mind.

 

[Raiden]

I have 0 interest in either movie. I like The Rock but Baywatch just seemed like a bad idea from the start. I have never been into the Pirate movies and not a fan of Depp.

I think Baywatch might be interesting if it takes advantage of its R rating, but I have a feeling that it will just give us male nudity and some foul language.

Pirate 5 is thankfully the last one for Depp, who should have ended the series 2 movies ago.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Vol. 2 back at No. 1 Monday and Tuesday. Domestic tally at $308.4 million after yesterday.

 

[Leenie]

Let's just say this: Overseas, I'm expecting Pirates to make bank.

Domestically, though? I honestly wouldn't be shocked if Guardians has another strong weekend. I don't see any enthusiasm for this new Pirates movie, and it's getting panned by critics. And the general audience is SO "over" Johnny Depp at this point.

I think that Baywatch is going to be bigger competition for Guardians. Sure, it's getting panned as well, but at least Baywatch has Dwayne Johnson going for it.